A basic/quick thought on McGregor's odds.

You know, in order to be able to predict outcomes in sports, we have to hang on to every single piece of hard data available and find patterns and correlations. In a matchup like this one, every analyst, from the greats to the hacks, will articulate some version of body metrics, fight stats, and even angles and footwork for the more knowledgeable. This is all great, and I can spend hours reading and learning from all the different perspectives. However, sometimes with some very special athletes there is a seemingly unquantifiable element that could arguably be of more relevance than the numbers. Intangibles like these carried Fedor's mistique and reputation until it was very clear that element was gone. But for a number of years it was simply hard to bet against him, even if he seemed like an underdog on paper, and that's because his instincts were sometimes sharper than his technique or shape, and his ability to seize moments was second to none. 


In the case of Conor McGregor it is very simple, but in a way it's almost overbearing. Since before he even got signed by the UFC, he apokenin detail about what he was going to do, and we laughed every step of the way, until one by one he started fulfilling his own prophecies, to the point where the amused laugh turned into amazement. Now that he destroyed the two champions of the weightclasses he put his sights on, in the rounds that he declared beforehand, and he is about to step on a ring with the best boxer of his generation, I think it's worth using some retrospective and revisit his aspirations and the ways that he said he's fulfill them. Looking back, you wil realize that the man spoke the whole time as if he knew something we didn't. As if he was privy to some information we didn't have. Or simply *understood some thinks about the fundamental mechanics of combat that we don't understand.* He is not infallible, as Nate Diaz showed, but statistically it is a blimp on the radar of a majorly impressive list of detailed predictions and strategies. It is not only the boldness of the predictions, but the solemnity with which he made them. He didn't understand what we were laughing about, and we didn't understand that there's things he knows and sees that we don't. 

I am not saying he is some sort of oracle or wizard. However, I've thought his predictions were preposterous before, and when they became true I realized he was not just trying to sell the fight. So, now that he is out there saying with a stone face that he doesn't think Floyd makes it out of the 1st, it sounds absolutely INSANE, but I learn from experiences, and I am humble and smart enough to understand that I don't understand what he does. So, this time, regardless of what I know to be true on paper, I can't not take the man seriously. It would not make sense not to. 

I feel like you hit post early lol

3rdAveE - I feel like you hit post early lol

Hahahaha, yeah... I finished it, though.