Ever since last year when some HGer posted buying gold and silver I have saved, bought and sold my way up to start a small stack going.
I read as much as I can but I really can't get around the verbage used and the graphs just blow my mind.
I know there is a akamai HG person out there that can tell me what the verbage means so any volunteers out there that can describe the following would be helpful:
Quote:
Originally Posted by insidedealer
Quad...if I'm reading you thoughts right, gold could go up, or down...in the short-run(next 1-2 months?).
.
It's 1200 now...could you asign your probability that we'll see 1160 or 1240 first? Or pick 2 other numbers above and below the market that you feel appropriate. Change the time frame also to your own parameters. Just trying to devine some clarity of probability here, and how strong your opinion is. Is it 50-50, or 80-20...that sort of thing. tia
I currently see two possible counts. One is immediately bearish, one will see a bit more upside to 1210 to 1224 and then down to sub-1150.
1) Immediate bear (now 35% chance). A wicked pattern has shown up again. I've seen it a few times before since '07. It's a nasty head fake, giving the illusion of a bottom and impulse up. But it's actually an extended B wave 3-3-5 flat correction. It's 35% chance now, in my estimation, and will shoot to 65%+ if we see a quick reversal down in the next day or two and close below 1164. The downside potential could see gold 1100 or less faster than you can post a thread with manipulation in the title. This move will likely die in the immediate short term if gold produces a slow choppy move down to 1175 to 1185 in the next day or two, and then come back up to 1205+.
2) Little more upside (55%). The current impulse up from 1157 is almost cooked, a slow choppy pull back to 1175 to 1185 for a few days would promote more bullishness and should see another run up to 1210 to 1224 zone. After which the last wave down to the 1100 to 1050 area near August 20th (Cyclist turn date) would be up to bat, needing to fall back quickly through 1204.
3) immediate bull (10%), would need to see shallow pull-backs and take out 1240 very quickly.
hope that helps.
Here more verbage:
as posted yesterday regarding Natgas, UNG looks like it managed to jump over the descending wedge which normally suggest a resumption of the original uptrend that started at 7.23
However we could see price test the 8.1 resistance and complete a very small 5 waves up, so depending on how the inventory report goes this morning, it may produce a good pull back.
current key support lies at 7.80-7.87, for a bullish move, I'd say these number will be the key in launching UNG much higher
failure to hold these number would open up the following possibility. A retest of 7.45-7.50 support, a double bottom dip at 7.23 or worse yet a much larger ABC correction with 7.23 being A, and a C wave pointing to a bit lower still.
over all trend imo remains bullish, its now all about picking the right price for entry, we are in august folks, september is right around the corner. Again, the longer we linger at these levels, the higher chance we are very close to a power ful up surge in the weeks ahead.
I know every job and specialty has their own language but damn, the stuff posted above makes my head sore.
should ask that "Henry The 5th" guy on the OG.
hes an expert at stocking.
junon - should ask that "Henry The 5th" guy on the OG.
hes an expert at stocking.
thanks pm will be sent
lol at asking for financial advise here.
don't blame this forum if you wind up w/ super aids.
I don't know anything about stocks, but I am a bit too fond of conspiracies.
One of the conspiracy theorists I follow is predicting bad things will happen on September 19, 2010 (and he has been right before more than once).
[quote]jjmtg - Ever since last year when some HGer posted buying gold and silver I have saved, bought and sold my way up to start a small stack going. [/quote]
I has a "small stack" of that gold metal too.......AS IN COPPER JACKETED AMMO!
And I farm too!
i'm much for finance or stocks/commodity trading, but i understand some of the jargon. but take this with a grain of salt as i might be misunderstanding.
1) Immediate bear (now 35% chance). A wicked pattern has shown up again. I've seen it a few times before since '07. It's a nasty head fake, giving the illusion of a bottom and impulse up. But it's actually an extended B wave 3-3-5 flat correction. It's 35% chance now, in my estimation, and will shoot to 65%+ if we see a quick reversal down in the next day or two and close below 1164. The downside potential could see gold 1100 or less faster than you can post a thread with manipulation in the title. This move will likely die in the immediate short term if gold produces a slow choppy move down to 1175 to 1185 in the next day or two, and then come back up to 1205+.
2) Little more upside (55%). The current impulse up from 1157 is almost cooked, a slow choppy pull back to 1175 to 1185 for a few days would promote more bullishness and should see another run up to 1210 to 1224 zone. After which the last wave down to the 1100 to 1050 area near August 20th (Cyclist turn date) would be up to bat, needing to fall back quickly through 1204.
3) immediate bull (10%), would need to see shallow pull-backs and take out 1240 very quickly.
hope that helps.
not sure what verbiage you need help with in this but it looks like the poster is relying on elliott wave patterns (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle - you'll have to research this stock method for the specifics regarding stuff like an "extended B wave 3-3-5 flat correction" cus i can't do the explanation justice).
as posted yesterday regarding Natgas, UNG looks like it managed to jump over the descending wedge which normally suggest a resumption of the original uptrend that started at 7.23
Natgas = natural gas
UNG = United Natural Gas fund
descending wedge = stock charting pattern generally indicating a bullish change
However we could see price test the 8.1 resistance and complete a very small 5 waves up, so depending on how the inventory report goes this morning, it may produce a good pull back.
resistance = price level that a stock/commodity can't seem to rise higher than
"small 5 waves" = elliott wave stuff again, sorry i can't help more on this
current key support lies at 7.80-7.87, for a bullish move, I'd say these number will be the key in launching UNG much higher
support = opposite of resistance, price level a stock/commodity can't seem to get lower than
failure to hold these number would open up the following possibility. A retest of 7.45-7.50 support, a double bottom dip at 7.23 or worse yet a much larger ABC correction with 7.23 being A, and a C wave pointing to a bit lower still.
double bottom dip = stock charting pattern where the stock drops to a support price, rises to the previous level, then drops again and rises again
ABC correction = elliott wave stuff
over all trend imo remains bullish, its now all about picking the right price for entry, we are in august folks, september is right around the corner. Again, the longer we linger at these levels, the higher chance we are very close to a power ful up surge in the weeks ahead.
this poster seems to be saying that since the trend is bullish the important thing is choosing the right time/price to buy into the commodity. he/she thinks that a quick rise in the price is coming so you just gotta decide when you're ready to jump into it.
hope some of this is helpful. you might wanna research chart patterns and the elliott wave theory stuff. good luck.
lat125 - i'm much for finance or stocks/commodity trading, but i understand some of the jargon. but take this with a grain of salt as i might be misunderstanding.1) Immediate bear (now 35% chance). A wicked pattern has shown up again. I've seen it a few times before since '07. It's a nasty head fake, giving the illusion of a bottom and impulse up. But it's actually an extended B wave 3-3-5 flat correction. It's 35% chance now, in my estimation, and will shoot to 65%+ if we see a quick reversal down in the next day or two and close below 1164. The downside potential could see gold 1100 or less faster than you can post a thread with manipulation in the title. This move will likely die in the immediate short term if gold produces a slow choppy move down to 1175 to 1185 in the next day or two, and then come back up to 1205+.
2) Little more upside (55%). The current impulse up from 1157 is almost cooked, a slow choppy pull back to 1175 to 1185 for a few days would promote more bullishness and should see another run up to 1210 to 1224 zone. After which the last wave down to the 1100 to 1050 area near August 20th (Cyclist turn date) would be up to bat, needing to fall back quickly through 1204.
3) immediate bull (10%), would need to see shallow pull-backs and take out 1240 very quickly.
hope that helps.
not sure what verbiage you need help with in this but it looks like the poster is relying on elliott wave patterns (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elliott_wave_principle - you'll have to research this stock method for the specifics regarding stuff like an "extended B wave 3-3-5 flat correction" cus i can't do the explanation justice).as posted yesterday regarding Natgas, UNG looks like it managed to jump over the descending wedge which normally suggest a resumption of the original uptrend that started at 7.23
Natgas = natural gas
UNG = United Natural Gas fund
descending wedge = stock charting pattern generally indicating a bullish changeHowever we could see price test the 8.1 resistance and complete a very small 5 waves up, so depending on how the inventory report goes this morning, it may produce a good pull back.
resistance = price level that a stock/commodity can't seem to rise higher than
"small 5 waves" = elliott wave stuff again, sorry i can't help more on thiscurrent key support lies at 7.80-7.87, for a bullish move, I'd say these number will be the key in launching UNG much higher
support = opposite of resistance, price level a stock/commodity can't seem to get lower thanfailure to hold these number would open up the following possibility. A retest of 7.45-7.50 support, a double bottom dip at 7.23 or worse yet a much larger ABC correction with 7.23 being A, and a C wave pointing to a bit lower still.
double bottom dip = stock charting pattern where the stock drops to a support price, rises to the previous level, then drops again and rises again
ABC correction = elliott wave stuffover all trend imo remains bullish, its now all about picking the right price for entry, we are in august folks, september is right around the corner. Again, the longer we linger at these levels, the higher chance we are very close to a power ful up surge in the weeks ahead.
this poster seems to be saying that since the trend is bullish the important thing is choosing the right time/price to buy into the commodity. he/she thinks that a quick rise in the price is coming so you just gotta decide when you're ready to jump into it.
hope some of this is helpful. you might wanna research chart patterns and the elliott wave theory stuff. good luck.
THANKS. THAT HELPED TREMENDOUSLY.
These are for silver and gold trends. I wanted to buy some gold and silver stocks.
kanotoa - I heard sugar wheat and oil might be running low next year, how do you get into commodities or funds that follow these sectors?
i've dabbled in ETF's (google sugar/wheat/oil ETF and that might pull up some) for some commodity exposure but like i said, i have a very very basic understanding of trading.
lat125 -kanotoa - I heard sugar wheat and oil might be running low next year, how do you get into commodities or funds that follow these sectors?
i've dabbled in ETF's (google sugar/wheat/oil ETF and that might pull up some) for some commodity exposure but like i said, i have a very very basic understanding of trading.
Can you tell me what this means?
Gold : Critical Resistance 1248.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hong Kong Qindex 16:14 GMT August 7, 2010
Gold : Critical Resistance 1248.8 : Reply
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold : Critical Resistance 1248.8
The bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the weekly cycle barrier at 1210.0 // 1248.8. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below 1198.2. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is trading within the monthly cycle pivot centers at 1146.7 - 1150.7 - 1233.0. This is an agreement with the weekly cycle matrix system which suggested that the market is going to consolidate further within 1198.2 - 1160.0 - 1210.0.
and this:
Totally Agree,
With
Heavy Selling Pressure above (together with USD)
Now, Gold turns to Looks weak again ATM
Prefer Selling on Rise for MT Targets now :
1/ Sell 1/4 @ 1195
2/ Sell 1/4 @ 1205
3/ Sell 1/4 @ 1215
4/ Sell 1/4 @ 1225
Stop loss for All Shorts @ 1235
Targets : 1184 - 1174 - 1164 - 1154 - 1144 - 1134 - 1124
^^^^ sell at 1248?
Buy at 1124?
everything you need to know is in this movie
honestly a lotta this is over my head but i think i got the general idea.
Can you tell me what this means?
Gold : Critical Resistance 1248.8
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Hong Kong Qindex 16:14 GMT August 7, 2010
Gold : Critical Resistance 1248.8 : Reply
Gold
Entry: Target: Stop:
Gold : Critical Resistance 1248.8
The bias is on the downside when the market is trading below the weekly cycle barrier at 1210.0 // 1248.8. Speculative selling pressure will increase when the market is below 1198.2. As shown in the monthly cycle charts the market is trading within the monthly cycle pivot centers at 1146.7 - 1150.7 - 1233.0. This is an agreement with the weekly cycle matrix system which suggested that the market is going to consolidate further within 1198.2 - 1160.0 - 1210.0.
from this, i'm assuming gold has been having a very difficult time getting above the 1248.8 resistance so it's dubbed a "critical resistance" and getting above it would be a sign of a major change in the market (most likely a very bullish change). however, while gold's price is fluctuating between 1210.0 and 1248.8 there's a greater chance of the price going down. if the price gets below 1198.2, selling will likely continue and the price will drop further. "monthly cycle pivot centers" and "weekly cycle matrix system" are terms i can't help with, sorry. but i can say whatever the cycles are, they're indicating gold will likely be trading within the tighter price range of 1198.2 - 1160.0 - 1210.0.
and this:
Totally Agree,
With
Heavy Selling Pressure above (together with USD)
Now, Gold turns to Looks weak again ATM
Prefer Selling on Rise for MT Targets now :
1/ Sell 1/4 @ 1195
2/ Sell 1/4 @ 1205
3/ Sell 1/4 @ 1215
4/ Sell 1/4 @ 1225
Stop loss for All Shorts @ 1235
Targets : 1184 - 1174 - 1164 - 1154 - 1144 - 1134 - 1124
gold and USD prices are looking weak, so this poster prefers selling as the price increases. in this case, he/she's selling a quarter of their holdings at a time when the price reaches 1195, 1205, 1215, and 1225. his/her stop loss (a price setting that'll automatically sell his/her commodity to limit his/her losses) is set at 1235.
^^^^^ thank you, lat125.You make thing super clear.
Sgt unnastan this thread, but he not want be liable imo.
PS. Put your $$$ in medical marajuwana.
SubdudePsyche - Sgt unnastan this thread, but he not want be liable imo.
I know.