Brock is likely to come out with great intensity... and that could be his undoing. It may be similar to Ali Foreman in this sense - a wilting.
Brock has to carry alot of weight and muscle. With the nerves of a title fight, that could zap him of his energy. Perhaps Randy wants to make this a grueling fight - a fight of energy attrition. Now, if he can pull that off, it would be phenominal. Bernard Hopkins did it with Pavlik. I don't care how hard you train, carrying the NERVES of a title fight can kill a man's strength.
I don't see Randy outwrestling Brock early on, but I think with his incredible experience, he can more effectively manage the nerves and his energy, so that by the fourth round, he may be ready to take it to the giant Lesnar.
Do you think he can pull that off?
randy. all day.
But how, LiverKickLoud&Clear?
It isn't boxing, VectorWegaLives, but the rules of attrition are the same. Energy can be squandered by nerves.
the thing about watching randy fight is that it's pretty well-known in fighting circles that a fighter gets old overnight. randy's been on an extended evening holiday for pretty much his entire career. he doesn't seem to be making the graceful marvin haglerish retire from the ring approach, so the question has become when he's going to wake up old. will it be tonight? randy's beaten the odds so many times that i'll never bet against him again, but the odds always eventually catch up with you.
is randy the superior fighter, the tougher guy, the more battle-tested athlete? indubitably. and brock lesnar is a spastic, almost wholly unskilled, inexperienced complete freak of nature. like was said on another thread, he's honkey kong, which i guess makes randy mario. thing is randy's not going to get a hammer or multiple lives to take on this particular gorilla.
I think Randy wants to make this a war of attrition and take Lesnar to deep waters. Don't know if he'll pull it off (I hope he does) but I can't see any plan of Randy's where he takes Lesnar out in Rounds 1 or 2 and probably not 3 either.
Lesnar early, or Couture late. Hopefully the latter.
Samoa.
Brock, because he has a chest tattooed on his penis.
Samoapowr, I think we are seeing this fight the same way. Randy has to survive the first couple of rounds to take it to the deep water. That is anything but a given. Reversing Brock is a Herculean task when he gets on top, and the guy hits hard. Randy was stopped by Chuck Liddel's punches, let's not forget.
dahosse, " so the question has become when he's going to wake up old. will it be tonight?"
I think we'll know the answer to that in the first round. That worries me. A blowout would be a tough way for the champ to go... but if he is going to go, I'd prefer it be quick than a long beat-down.
I quite easily see something of the Ali vs Foreman thing happening here.
Of course it will be a different style of attrition, you're not going to soak up punches from Lesnar for too long, but Randy is the kind of fighter who can bring a game plan that will wear Lesnar down.
yix,
Agree with your comments. Consider rolling for a moment. A black belt can roll for hours, because he's used to it. He minimizes energy output. That's why a white belt who was also a triathlete gassed in ten minutes years ago at Nelson Monteiro's studio. It's not that the guy wasn't in shape. Clearly, he was. It's a question of having the experience to relax and use minimal output for maximum gain. If your whole body is tight, you will gas. Quick.
Ever see someone box for the first time? After three minutes, the poor guy will barely be able to raise his hands. The stress tightens up the body, breathing is stifled, and fatigue comes to claim his prize.
My preview from http://www.punchdrunkgamer.com/ you can also read what a whole bunch of other fighters think as well...
My gut says Lesnar, but my head says Couture.
Elvis Sinosic – “This is one of those matches that has everyone swaying left and right. In theory, Brock Lesnar should not have the experience nor the cross training to be in a HW title shot against someone as decorated as Randy Couture. Lesnar has not faced the number or the quality of opponents that Couture has. Let’s ignore that he may not have earned a title shot and have a look at the merits of this mach. The thing is that Brock brings in a comprehensive freestyle amateur wrestling background. He also brings in the physical tools of massive size with strength and the explosiveness rarely seen in the HW division. For his cons, his chin has not truly been tested and his ability to push the pace for 5 rounds and come out strong on the other end. Randy brings a great amateur Greco background. He brings in a ton of experience not only in MMA but also in Title shots. Randy has the endurance to push the pace for 5 rounds and come out strong at the end. Some of Randy’s biggest losses have come to bigger guys that can put him on his back. It should also be noted that Randy’s losses to the bigger guys was also when he played a more Jiu Jitsu game plan when put on his back. Since then he has evolved his MMA to better reflect his wrestling background. His goal now is always to end up on top. The big questions are who will put who on their back. When it happens can they keep the other on their back? Both will be playing a wrestling MMA game and I doubt either will try and play guard. Next, is can Brock take punishment, e.g. how will he fair when his chin is tested? Will Randy be able to test that chin? How will Brock fare in the later rounds if the fight gets there? How will Randy’s endurance fair when carrying the weight of a heavier opponent as they can do as much damage to your cardio as can getting hit.
We know that Randy has a good chin. He won’t play guard and will no doubt use a wrestling style game (similar to Heath) if he ends up on the bottom. I don’t see Brock stopping Randy early and I don’t see him subbing Randy (unless Randy is already hurt). I don’t think Randy will sub Brock either. I don’t see him stopping Brock early in the game either. Randy hits hard and has fierce GNP, but has never had that one shot power to end the match. I think Brock does, but I don’t think he will land that shot early as I’m sure now everyone will be expecting it. This fight will be decided later on in the rounds and most likely go to Decision. The question is who will be able to impose their will during the match. I think Brock will come out strong early and most likely take the first 2 rounds. I see Randy rallying back later in the fight (not unlike his match against Rizzo) and taking rounds 4 and 5. The question is who will take round 3, which I think will be the pivotal round. I think the match could also be ended in the third, but most likely both fighters will fight out of it and survive. Whoever wins the third will win the fight. I think Randy will come out on top in the third and use the momentum to drive forward to a unanimous decision victory.”
As you can see, I've gone with my head...
Elvis
Hey Elvis! Good to see you posting. Just a couple of points:
"We know that Randy has a good chin. "
We do? Chuck KO'd him rather handily. I'm not at all sure he's got a good chin.
I see Brock winning brutally, frankly. I can conceive of Randy winning, but I'd call that, to invoke an Eddie Bravo'ism, "a low percentage chance". I believe that Brock is more freestyle, and will be better at attacking the legs, which Greco doesn't teach. His sheer size and power should have Randy on his back.
Randy may be competent off his back, but he ain't no ace there. I bet a 1st round ref stoppage, or outright KO on the ground for Lesner. I also think that his age will be relevent. Randy has looked stiff and awkward to me lately, and the long layoff won't help.
Lesnar, First Round
Great writeup, Elvis!