I would wait to see what happens with Iran before buying
You buys oil stocks as much for long term dividend gains as you would trying to time/forecast the oil/gas markets.
I've owned BP since it crashed after the spill, and while the stock itself hasn't appreciated much in the following 5 years I have been getting a 6% return every quarter in a dividend payment during a period where the money in a savings account wasn't paying dick.
wormiwalkinstik - It seems like the north American production has pulled back because they cant make a profit on oil at the market price.
Who knows why the market is the way it is. But one thing is for SURE, Russia is hurting right now. Russia, like the US/Canada oil, is harder to get. They cant profit at the market price.
The middle east has been working huge fucking wells for a long time, so their cost is low. Other players can produce and profit from oil at the market price.
This is a power and manipulation at its best.
So if I own an abudant resource of something and release supply as I see fit, it's manipulation? If I own the resource, I control the supply. How is that manipulation?
Whatever you do, the most risk is in oil companies outside of the top 5.
Royal Dutch shell
Why do peons still think they can find inefficiencies in the market?
1800champagne - Why do peons still think they can find inefficiencies in the market?
I'll peon your mom.
Franklins Rules - Whatever you do, the most risk is in oil companies outside of the top 5.And? Returns are risk adjusted.
Royal Dutch shell
I like risk. Makes me feel alive.
As someone who owns a fair share of Exxon stock, to watch it drop from 104 to 72 has been a sad decline.
1800champagne - Do you think you see an inefficiency that thousands of equity analysts haven't seen? The market price reflects the collective input of all their research. Markowitz disapproves.
What do you mean by "inefficiency" in the context of the market?
It has nothing to do with an inefficiency in the market as far as I understand the word, the market is neutral and has no goal other than to match buyers and sellers in an auction format. The market would only move 1 direction if all of these analysts agreed with each other. Who would they sell to when they are long if everyone agrees with them?
You have x number of buyers and y number of sellers at an individual price point. Once there are no more buyers willing to buy at that price, the market moves down 1 tick at a time to find the buyers to satisfy the supply. When there are no more sellers at an individual price point, the market moves up tick by tick to satisfy the demand.
The fact that price changes minute by minute should tell you there is no collective agreement as buyers and sellers see opportunity to make and lose money at all times. Which is why they all enter and leave the market at various times, every second of every day. Everyone got in at a different price, at any given time they are up or down a certain amount and they all have various predictions of where price will be next month.
hundred billion cubic feet of natural gas coming in to add to inventory levels, some stuff related to agriculture for those who trade that stuff
good weather for harvest
probably less corn planted
usda reports bullish
world wheat supplies are still extra large
grains supplies in general are strong so a lot of people are short
supply/demand could change quick, futures sometimes predicts these
cattle market lows were 124 in kansas and 118 in nebraska
banks are forcing a lot of these guys to sell, could put feed lots out of business. This could be great opportunities at 2 year lows
bull spreads might be a cheap way to get long on these cattle
pork is strong, index climbing, october is pork month with octoberfest etc , bookings done for blt's , beef is really cheap
you can't necessarily see the drops in prices at the grocery store as of now, but that should change soon. Retailers have to adjust and that takes a little time