I am a GSP nuthugger andthought his performance last night was awesome....saying that though I see some real problems for him vs Serra in the second fight.
Here is what I deducted last night...
1) Does GSP have a stand up advantage against Serra? Before the first fight I would have thoght yes, but we all know what hapened in the first fight, that must be on GSP's mind and will possibly affect his stand up affectiveness.
2)Does GSP have an advantage on the ground against Serra? Well Serra chances are will be on his back but GSP will be very weary of Serra's ground skills even if GSP has the top position.
So what is GSP's game Plan?
To stand against the man that knocked him out last time...well things of course could be much different in the stand up this time...maybe, but mentaly it sure would show great mental strenght to beat Serra standing up.
If this goes to the ground we all know how dangerous this is for GSP and he must be extremly careful not to make any mistakes...so onn the ground at least on paper this is maybe not the best game plan.
So here I am a GSP nut hugger who thinks GSP is the best in his division and you could also make a strong argument the best lbs for lbs...but I am left thinking is Serra just that Bad match up that seems to exist for all fighters?
I see some real problems for GSP....
I fully believe GSP, if carefull, can Pound out Serra on the mat
What you should ask is can Matt Serra last 2 round's with GSP. I don't think so do you? maybe maybe not.
I think Serra's too short at 170 lb to sub anyone from his back.... not saying he couldn't take GSP's back, but that's the only danger he's really going to worry about.
Serra has the better standup, and is comfortable on the back.
If GSP is wise and goes the LnP route like against BJ, Karo and Kos, he will win. If not, he will lose.
GSP wins via pelvis thrust in mount.
"Serra has the better standup"
GSP went to the mat with BJ Penn, and didn't seem scared.
I think in his mind, he over-hyped Serra's ground skills (which are good,
but GSP was TOO worried about going to the ground, and in the 2nd
fight, I expect GSP to take Serra down & control him, and eveantually get
by the time this fight Happens Longo will have turned Serra into a machine. I truly am confident in saying the Serra will keep the belt...much love to GSP but Serra will keep it.
In all honesty I think GSP kills Serra in a rematch, Considering his second bout with Hughes I'm pretty sure he'll learn form his last loss. GSP knows what he must do to improve with Serra, meanwhile Serra's best chances will be trying to repeat what worked last time. Sadly however I think his best chances lay with grinding out a decision, merely taking Serra down and controlling him rather than risk becoming too reckless with going for the TKO and keeping his distance in the stand up exchange. I could see GSP dominating a take down contest style fight too.
GSP will be able to take Serra down at will and use ground & pound to get the win. He can also keep Serra at bay with multiple low kicks. I don't see GSP losing but I didn't see the first upset either.
I think in the first fight GSP thought he would easily outstrike Serra and
was leary of his BJJ. I think that GSP is so confident now that he won't
hesitate to take Serra down to GnP him or even go for a sub.
It will be interesting to see how GSP deals with Serra the 2nd time around. I see a much more focused, as well as a much more mentally and physically prepared GSP this time. I think GSP uses all his tools in the toolbox against Serra, very diversified attack keeping Serra off balance the entire fight.
GSP will take down Serra and win via GnP in the rematch.
What we saw last night was the birth of the next great MMA fighter. I expect St. Pierre to go on an historic tear over the next few years. I never imagined anyone could through Hughes around like a rag doll.
"GSP will knock him out with elbows from full mount."
I think it would be tough for GSP to get full mount on Serra.
GSP has his riddum back and won fairly squarly last night so yes he will beat serra