Sonnen should be the favorite, because Shields' takedowns are pretty mediocre, and Chael has better boxing. However I think people have a tendency to overrate Sonnen's TDD. We've never really seen him display impressive TDD. Maia tossed him with ease, from the clinch, even though Sonnen has spent basically his whole life training Greco. Bisping also took him down pretty easily. Bisping was also getting the advantage in a clinch a number of times in that fight. Just because Chael has great takedowns doesn't necessarily mean his defensive wrestling is all that.
I think most of Shield's takedowns would fail, but if he did get a takedown, he'd probably pass Sonnen's guard pretty easily. Jake has brilliant guard passes. And Chael obviously is submittable.
Also, people assume Chael would sprawl and brawl here, but that's not for certain. When Chael fought Dan Miller, even his cornerman Lindland was yelling at him not to take Miller to the ground (Miller was known as a very dangerous sub guy, and Chael was notorious for being subbed, so Lindland's logic was pretty sound) yet Chael kept taking Miller down anyway. People were fairly dumbfounded Chael was willing to play Miller's game like that. The ground is just where Chael feels most comfortable, even when tactically it doesn't make sense for him.
So it wouldn't surprise me if Chael took Shields down at some point. Which would be a mistake. Jake's top game is his best skill, but he does have better subs off his back than most guys that have tapped Chael. Chael has improved his BJJ but he'll never match Shields in that department.
I'd put Chael at between -200 and -250 favorite, I think. A significant favorite but not overwhelming.
G1GAH3ART - Right... because Shields has caught guys with something in the UFC.
Shields also hasn't faced anyone as prone to submission losses as Sonnen in years.
Anyone acting like this is a given for Sonnen is ignoring the fact that Sonnen is very mistake-prone. We know Sonnen wouldn't finish Jake (I sure hope the TS was joking when he picked Sonnen by arm triangle...if he was serious, that has to be one of the worst predictions I've ever seen!). So Jake has 15 minutes to pull something out of his ass. While his odds of doing so are less than 50%, they are definitely not trivial. Shields would have a real chance in this fight.
Matchup wise, a guy like Okami is actually the tougher fight for Shields because he's almost un-submittable and has proven great TDD. And yes, I know he "beat" Okami before at 175 but Okami was much smaller then and it was a Machida/Rampage type decision, Shields squeaked out two rounds while Okami dominated the other - the type of fight where you'd clearly favor the loser in a rematch. And Okami is much larger than Shields nowadays. I would give Shields very little chance against Okami.
But against Chael, he'd have some shot. Among the elite MWs, Chael is probably the guy that Jake would have the best chance of beating. Most top MWs would destroy Jake in non-competitive fights. Jake would probably be competitive against Chael even in his losses.
Though most likely, the fight would be a boring decision as a tentative Chael wary of the takedowns tries to box up Jake. But we saw how terrible GSP looked striking against Jake - even before the eyepoke he wasn't looking good. Akiyama also looked bad and got outstruck, and Akiyama has fairly good striking. Jake has those fugly kicks of his, which seem pretty weak but they might score points with the judges. Given how tentative Chael might be it isn't totally inconceivable Jake could outpoint him on the feet. Unlikely, but not impossible.
In any event the fight would probably suck and I'm glad there's no chance of it happening.
