chael vs anderson question

Question:
I have seen this fight literally once so I need your backup on the answer here. As I recall Sonnen faked a shoot early in the fight and followed up with a hook and rocked Silva to the ground. After that Anderson had to respect chael's punches and since silvas stand up, although phenomenal, stance wise has never been designed specifically to defend shots a la Chuck Lidell.

Am I the only one who thinks that Chael has a 1 in 3 chance of winning?

Scenario 1: Anderson having learned from the past feels chael out a bit more keeping chael striking in the back of his head and then KO'c Sonnen.

Scenario 2: Anderson Gets taken down and smashed over and over again only this time he doesn't hit the hail-mary triangle and loses via decision.

Scenario 3: Even after 3 losses in the UFC/WEC in huge fights coming by way of triangle or a variation there of, has not learned how to spot or defend the technique and gets tapped again.

These are the most probable IMO. Should chael Sonnen get him down again he could do to Anderson what he did to stann, no question, I just think the Anderson is better in a scramble than people think and that idea could lead to a Marquardt type KO.
The longer the match goes the more likely anderson can find a way to win, unless chael tries to finish this time. I thought Sonnen did awesome with his game plan last time, but I don't think it will work again.

What are your thoughts?