the money line is going to peg Kos as a healthy favorite (-250 to -280) as Kos is a great wrestler while Condit has poor TDD. but your analysis shouldn't end there.
Condit is very hard to keep down. He's incredibly active; he constantly threatens with submissions & elbow strikes and use them to generate openings to scramble back up. Also he's showcased a nice sweep against DHK. On the feet, Koscheck is very error-prone and hittable on the feet, which Condit capitalizes on regularly.
To me, Condit is the clear favorite. Kos' only means of victory is to hold Condit down for 3 rounds, which is possible but people here overestimate the probability of this happening; even if Kos pulls that off, his face is going to need a lot of stitches by the end.
Kos will knock condit down for sure, but if he can finish him, that's the question. 
Everytime I think of Condit I image the smashing Hardy gave him
Kos won't be pegged as high as a -250 favorite over Condit. I think they're much different fighters stylistically, but they both are the same caliber fighters. I expect the betting lines to be close to even.
Shahanshah - so you just don't watch his fights then right?
you didn't see him get smashed by kampmann, jake and rory?
just tuned in recently to see him KO dan hardy and kim?
cool, just next time don't comment on it.
Josh beats him everywhere.
lol @ smashed by Kampmann -- a split decision; Rory -- whom Condit pounded out; and Jake, who won with wrestling while Condit had all the sub attempts.
Voted down for being yet another tiresome new screenname for an old idiot.
Gu31232 - Kos won't be pegged as high as a -250 favorite over Condit. I think they're much different fighters stylistically, but they both are the same caliber fighters. I expect the betting lines to be close to even.
Here's hoping, hehe
I really hope this ends up being a 5 round fight.
As usual with most of your points Jamiee, but I disagree that Condit is the clear favorite. I find this fight to be a toss-up.
You are especially correct when you say Kos is error-prone and hittable on the feet. His defense isn't as good as that of say Fitch. It's like people forget that he was getting tee'ed off on by the jab of Matt Hughes, of all people. If Hughes had any sort of chin left Kos might have been in trouble in that fight.
One thing I also wonder about Kos is that eye, GSP may have permanently ruined it. It was clearly bothering him against Hughes and Kos even admitted he went "not again" during that fight. I think all of Kos' future opponents are going to target that eye as well. If this becomes an issue for Kos in the future he will have problems.
Now I wouldn't favor Condit because of Kos' wrestling, plus Kos is indeed a good fighter, although somewhat overrated. And Kos hits hard so he's capable of dropping Condit. But I'd find it hard to favor Kos as well - Condit is a finisher, and Kos is quite capable of being finished. Condit is a good striker and very difficult to deal with on the ground (as Ellenberger learned). It's a good matchup and should be a fun fight to watch. I expect a competitive back and forth affair.
orcus - lol @ smashed by Kampmann -- a split decision; Rory -- whom Condit pounded out; and Jake, who won with wrestling while Condit had all the sub attempts.
I think he meant Ellenberger, not Shields. Ellenberger came the closest to "smashing" Condit of anyone but lost the SD - however Jake hits significantly harder than Kos. Condit's pretty much the only person I've seen get hit flush by Jake and live to tell the tale.
Then he goes to to arguably take the last two rounds, pretty unreal.
Astronaut - You are really overrating Condits guard imo. His scramble game is damn good, but off his back he wont have much for Kos
What did he overrate? I don't think anyone expects him to submit Kos but he doesn't need to do that to be effective off his back. As you said he has good scrambling, he also has good sweeps and good strikes.
He swept Ellenberger a couple times, once I think into mount (though I might be wrong on that). And he actually outstruck Rory from his back as I recall.
Would be very surprised if he subbed Koscheck but there are other ways to inflict damage off your back, and a sub attempt can lead to improved position, a sweep, or a scramble. It's Condit's activity level and energy off his back that is his most effective trait on the ground.
eh I may be a little higher on Condit than everyone else. Perhaps I went overboard with that "clear favorite" comment...but I think this fight is a lot closer than people who subscribe religiously to "wrestler should prevail over striker with poor TDD" school of thought