Gesias Calvancante vs. Shinya Aoki
This fight will be the main event of a STACKED card. Calvancante looked unstoppable after steamrolling one of the best ground fighters in MMA, Shaolin. However, Shaolin's game is on top, and Aoki shines on the bottom. Aoki has consistently shown the ability to avoid damage on the feet and bring the fight to the ground. This one can easily go either way. My heart is with the man in the yellow tights, but my brain tells me that Calvancante is too big, too skilled, and too strong on top to get subbed by the excellent Aoki.
Calvancante by ground and pound stoppage in the second.
Tatsuya Kawajiri vs. Kultar Gill
Gill has always been under-rated as a fighter IMO. At the same time, he has always seemed to under-perform in big fights (except when he's facing Tokoro!) The only chance Gill has in this fight is by keeping it on his feet and using his reach to outpoint Kawajiri. Unfortunately for him, Kawajiri will close the distance, strike in his preferred range, and then take Gill down. From there, Gill's under-rated ground game won't help him.
Kawajiri by GnP barrage at the end of the first round.
Kazuyuki Miyata vs. Luis Buscape
This fight pits two very under-rated fighters. Buscape had a very close fight with Azeredo which could have went either way. Azeredo went on to bigger matches in Bushido, while Buscape faded out of the picture. It is a shame since the Brazillian showed great all around skills in that fight. Unfortunately, Buscape has a tough road ahead of him against the highly under-rated Miyata. Although mistake Miyata for a one-dimensional wrestler, Miyata showed a great sprawl and brawl game against Shaolin (dominated Shaolin in the first round) and he has also shown a strong wrestling-based submission game. Miyata's biggest enemy seems to be himself, as he has a tendency to choke in bigger match ups.
Look for Miyata to dominate Buscape to a unanimous decision.
Joachim Hansen vs. Koutetsu Boku
In a card full of under-rated fighters, this match is flying completely under the radar. While most people would pick the bigger name (Hansen) in this match up, Pak Kwang Cheol (Koketsu Boku) offers an intriguing match up. Neither fighter has a great takedown game and both like to bang on their fight. Pak has the advantage on his feet, since he is more of a pin-point counter-striker and Hansen is a bit more of a scrapper. On the ground both have decent skills, with Hansen having a slight advantage due to his reverse GnP. Surprisingly, this match will be determined by the skillset neither man is known for: takedowns. Despite Hansen's reverse GnP, Pak will take top position and punish him enough to stretch out the advantage on his feet.
Pak by decision after a grueling 3 rounds.
Eddie Alvarez vs. Andre 'Dida' Amade
This is another match that is flying under the radar, but it'll probably be the most exciting of the night. The former BODOG posterboy, Alvarez, is coming back from a KO loss to Nick Thompson, so it'll be interesting to see if it has affected his aggressiveness at all. Before that Alvarez was on a tear, steamrolling all the competition he faced. Although Dida was stopped in the second by Calvacante, he is still a very formidable fighter. He KO'ed the hugely under-rated Oumakhanov in impressive fashion, and he combines Chute Box aggressiveness with a tighter, more technical striking style (Dida is more Shogun than Ninja). That technique will give him an advantage in a shoot-out with Alvarez.
Dida by 1st round KO in a short, but bloody match. This will be the Hearns vs. Hagler of the tourney.
Hayato Sakurai vs. Hidetaka Monma
Look for Sakurai to cruise to a victory over the game, yet overmatched Monma. Monma is a tough figher, but Sakurai is better than him in every catagory. At the same time, Sakurai can have a tendency to fight down to his opponent's level.
Look for Sakurai to finish the fight standing in the third round in a fight that should have ended in the first.
Katsuhiko Nagata vs. Artur Oumakhanov
Although Oumakhanov is best known in the West as a KO victim of Dida, Oumakhanov has quietly built a solid record in Japan. He steamrolled through Pancrase's lightweight division before being stopped in his most recent fight by the sloppy, but heavy-handed Shoji. He also holds a win over fellow tournement competitor Pak Kwang Cheol (Koketsu Boku). Oumakhanov is a dangerous counter-striker with terrific top-positioning, and hard-hitting (albiet languid) GnP. Despite being a wrestling silver medalist, Nagata has shown little beyond takedowns and the ability to ride out a decision. Look for Oumakhanov to sprawl and brawl throughout the fight until he can force a takedown mistake from Nagata. From there Oumakhanov will GnP for the victory.
Oumakhanov by ref stoppage in the third.
Mitsuhiro Ishida vs. Bu Kyung Jung
As a huge fan of Ishida and a former training partner of Bu Kyung, this is the most interesting match up for me. For me, this match hearkens back to the old days of the early UFC where you can clearly see a "style vs. style" match up. Ishida is a wrestler through and through. Not just your typical "shoot straight forward and double leg"-type wrestler, but an extremely skilled chain wrestler. Ishida is relentless in his attacks and he is constantly changing directions and attacks until his opponent fails to keep up with the defense and is on his back. From there Ishida has decent ground and pound, but great posture and submission defense. Bu Kyung, on the other hand is pure Judo. The Sydeny silver medalist has shown a Karo-like ability to make judo work in the practice room. His takedowns come from a variety of angles that are unexpected for wrestlers and he is second-to-none in the clinch. On the ground Bu Kyung almost submitted Aoki twice, so he is a threat to anyone. This match will be decided by who gets top position, and it will be an extremely exciting match up of styles. Ishida will be able to take Bu Kyung down if he uses angles and circular attacks as he is known for. However, if he gives Bu Kyung just an inch of space, he'll get thrown from an angle wrestlers would never expect. Look for an exciting, scrambly, back and forth takedown showdown.
Unless Bu Kyung can catch a suprise submission, Ishida will take a hard fought split decision in round three. Yun Dong Sik's team might unfortunately continue on their path of being the most skilled group of fighters with losing records on the planet.
Mirko Cro Cop vs. Tatsuya Mizuno
Look for Cro Cop to Cro-kick an over-matched Mizuno into the bleachers. While Mizuno possesses some genuine skills that might have the UFC Cro-Cop flustered, we will see Cro Cop return to Pride form and obliterate the heavyweight up-and-comer.
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