Election season is here. 538 enters the fray

FiveThirtyEight is starting to compile and post their polling averages.

Note: This first look should be taken with a grain of salt as they haven't started adjusting based on prior performance and other demographic adjustments.

It should go without saying... but try to leave the retarded team game rhetoric out of here and discuss the data.

Nobody gives a fuck about you MAGA'ing or Orange Man Bad'ing.

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I guess one thing that really stands out here is that it doesn't take that much to go from a massive Biden Electoral College landslide (if he wins everywhere on the list below, that's 413 EV) to a narrow Biden loss (he's only ahead 3.7 points in the tipping-point state). https://t.co/E03bEeqKBr

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 13, 2020
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National: Biden +7.6

CO: Biden +15.6
ME: Biden +12.4
VA: Biden +9.5
MI: Biden +8.2
NE-2: Biden +7.4
NH: Biden +6.6
WI: Biden +5.9
NV: Biden +5.7
MN: Biden +5.5
PA: Biden +3.7
AZ: Biden +3.6
FL: Biden +3.5
NC: Biden +2.0
OH: Biden +1.6
GA: TIE
TX: Trump +1.4
IA: Trump +1.6

-- Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 13, 2020


The tipping-point state here would be PA, where there's been a real lack of high-quality polling for the past couple months. I doubt that Biden is actually ahead by 8 in MI and 6 in WI but only 3-4 in PA. But, that's what the polls show if you don't blend them with priors.

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) June 13, 2020

I remember all these polls had Hillary beating Trump, time and time again...and here we are

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538 was thoroughly humiliated last election. 

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I remember when 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of winning on last election day

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Theyre a joke

every poll will show Biden winning

all that matters is who americans choose to pull the lever for in private

it will be Donald Reagan

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Bend The Knee - 

I remember all these polls had Hillary beating Trump, time and time again...and here we are


This is an all too common and all too ignorant take.

Its like if you were charting coin flips and one time it lands on its side... and you use that to say that the 50/50 probability is shit and we shouldn't pay attention to it ever again.

Polling has always been a great tool to track the campaigns and likely outcomes. Silver speaks to it in the tweet above how it currently shows a massive Biden win... but the margins are so close in most states that it could also be another razor thin Trump win. You have to actually understand the data and know anything that a +/- 3-4 are generally within a margin of error and can tip either way on election day.

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Trump was an unknown quantity back then. Democrats were sitting out the race because they didn't like Hillary. This time, they're going to be voting against Trump. 

Also last time, people grew complacent with the supposedly yuge lead Hillary had. Biden better put out the message that in order for a repeat not to happen, people better not believe the polls.

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I love the polls showing an easy Biden win!  Please keep reposting them.  Just like Hilary in a landslide. Some simps think it's in the bag and won't go vote cause it's already won. 

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The worrisome pieces for the Trump campaign are GA polling a dead heat, and TX only being a +1.4.

If Texas turns, its over. And the tough part there is Trump had a historically low % of the TX vote in 2016 so there isn't a ton of wiggle room.

Same with GA. Trump underperformed there in 2016... so these polls should be a wake up call.

Darup - 

I remember when 538 gave Trump a 29% chance of winning on last election day


So.... he won.... I can't say him winning is inconsistent with a 29% chance.... if they said he has a 0.000000001% chance, you'd have to wonder. But 29% is a very material number.

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Also... if there is any way possible, can we keep the team game shit talk our of this thread and actually discuss the data?

HELWIG -

Theyre a joke


every poll will show Biden winning


all that matters is who americans choose to pull the lever for in private


it will be Donald Reagan

there was not a single poll showing Trump to be the favorite in 2016 that Im aware and yet he won a subtatntial victory


 


 

gregbrady - 
HELWIG -

Theyre a joke


every poll will show Biden winning


all that matters is who americans choose to pull the lever for in private


it will be Donald Reagan

there was not a single poll showing Trump to be the favorite in 2016 that Im aware and yet he won a subtatntial victory


 


 


Define substantial.

RdotC -
Bend The Knee - 

I remember all these polls had Hillary beating Trump, time and time again...and here we are


This is an all too common and all too ignorant take.

Its like if you were charting coin flips and one time it lands on its side... and you use that to say that the 50/50 probability is shit and we shouldn't pay attention to it ever again.

Polling has always been a great tool to track the campaigns and likely outcomes. Silver speaks to it in the tweet above how it currently shows a massive Biden win... but the margins are so close in most states that it could also be another razor thin Trump win. You have to actually understand the data and know anything that a +/- 3-4 are generally within a margin of error and can tip either way on election day.

one of the problems with polling is that its basically measuring the popular vote, but thats not how you win presidential elections. If the battleground states are within the margin of error of the poll then the week-to-week movement within that margin of error is meaningless. the headlines will say things like "Biden's lead grows in Michigan" when his support goes up 2 points while the margin of error is 3-5%


 


these polls are not giving is very good info. Its mostly political propganda.

RdotC -
gregbrady - 
HELWIG -

Theyre a joke


every poll will show Biden winning


all that matters is who americans choose to pull the lever for in private


it will be Donald Reagan

there was not a single poll showing Trump to be the favorite in 2016 that Im aware and yet he won a subtatntial victory


 


 


Define substantial.

306 to 232 is not "razor thin"

gregbrady - 
RdotC -
gregbrady - 
HELWIG -

Theyre a joke


every poll will show Biden winning


all that matters is who americans choose to pull the lever for in private


it will be Donald Reagan

there was not a single poll showing Trump to be the favorite in 2016 that Im aware and yet he won a subtatntial victory


 


 


Define substantial.

306 to 232 is not "razor thin"


Being the 46th largest margin of victory is razor thin in a historical perspective.

RdotC -

Also... if there is any way possible, can we keep the team game shit talk our of this thread and actually discuss the data?

Why? Because you posted this only because you are a fan of data, statistics and polls? And because you think polls (and especially 538) are extremely reliable? 

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Fast Pitch - 
RdotC -

Also... if there is any way possible, can we keep the team game shit talk our of this thread and actually discuss the data?

Why? Because you posted this only because you are a fan of data, statistics and polls? And because you think polls (and especially 538) are extremely reliable? 


Yes.

Historically, polls are very useful. The data is interesting and can lead to interesting discussions.

Also, historically, Silver's team has done a great job.