End of the sucker rally?

Is the sucker rally in the stock market over?

Last year I predicted the S&P500 would be about 650 by now. Obviously I was wrong. Over the course of the year I decided the crash might not come for another year or two.

Now on the other hand -- job reports indicating continued weakness in the economy, oil prices going up a couple of years earlier than I expected, continued strain in Baghdad -- I'm starting to think the legs could fall out from under this whole thing any day now.

At the same time, it doesn't make sense to me why the Fed couldn't just print a bunch of money all of sudden and by Nasdaq futures to prop the market up.

lol!

"At the same time, it doesn't make sense to me why the Fed couldn't just print a bunch of money all of sudden and by Nasdaq futures to prop the market up."


Is this sarcasm, or are you actually making predictions on the future of the economy with this little understanding of how a system works?

"Is this sarcasm, or are you actually making predictions on the future of the economy with this little understanding of how a system works?"

Man, shut the hell up. I said it doesn't make sense why they *couldn't* do that, not that I thought they *would*.

The Fed can create $1 billion by pressing the "1" key and then the "0" key 9 times. While they generally only work in the bond market, it doesn't make sense to me why they couldn't intervene in other markets if they deemed it necessary to the health of the economy.

The day before the Iraq War the futures price of oil collapsed from about $35 a barrel down to something like $26, the total opposite of what was expected. Who did that? How much money does it really take to crash a futures market?

"I said it doesn't make sense why they *couldn't* do that, not that I thought they *would*."

Um...my point still stands. The fact that you think they "could" do that is pretty odd. I mean, I "could" walk outside and kick the mailman in the nuts, but I'm not going to. While it probably would be amusing, the consequences far outweigh the benefits.

What makes you think this is a "sucker rally"?

"Um...my point still stands."

You made a point in your first post? Yeah, kicking the mailman, that is a real good analogy.

"What makes you think this is a "sucker rally"?"

A lot of reasons, but the obvious one that anyone can understand is P/E ratios. The S&P500 is at 28.7 now, very high by historical standards. I don't even know what the Nasdaq is at but I believe it is over 50. The market "priced in" an economic recovery that didn't happen.

But whatever. Go buy some tech stocks and enjoy.

Alan better fire up that printing press.

Well, I am short 5 S+P's and a Nikkei so you know my opinion