Frankie Edgar shown no love from oddsmakers

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                                Frankie Edgar shown no love from oddsmakers

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Frankie Edgar doesn't get cut much slack when it comes to odds making. With Edgar now making his second title defense of the UFC Lightweight strap, he has to look all the way back to December of last year to find a fight he was actually favored in — his submission victory over Matt Veach at the TUF Season 10 Finale.

For Edgar's first scrap with BJ Penn at UFC 112, the contender came in at about +575 — not exactly encouraging. Six months later and with talk of his flukey win over a sickly BJ Penn, Edgar again came in as a huge dog, premiering with odds at about +250 for UFC 118 in August. 

While No.1 contender — Gray Maynard — is seeing odds at a consistent -145, the champ is coming in at +125. It's not all that surprising considering the history between the two, but when will Edgar finally see some odds enjoyed by other UFC champions?


Read entire article...


 

From my perspective...numbers odds  wise since I opened first betting line on the bout in 2008 and now in 2010......my thoughts and direct quotes  below...  from an interview from an actual gambling  site... diff site..





"I opened the first number on this bout  on  9-1-2010, with Gray Maynard as  a -125 betting favorite just days after Edgar beat Penn convincinly and Gray beat beat Kenny Florian on the same card. Both guys wins were still fresh in players minds. The very first action came in on Frankie, but not enough to cause the line to move.   Basically a pickem. Oddly enough, both Frankie and Gray entered their UFC 118 bouts that night as underdogs and left with a title bout on deck. The bout odds have gradually increased and Gray has been bet up as high as a -160 favorite in the rematch. Gray is around -145 on average now."





"Frankie Edgar opened -160 actually closed higher than a 2 1/2 to 1 betting favorite that night he lost to Maynard at Ultimate Fight Night 13 in April 2008.

 

It shows how far both fighters havecome from undercard status to main event championship status on New Years Day along with the public percepetion of both fighters. "



"Frankie Edgar is absolutely worthy of being a champion. 13-1 with two wins over BJ Penn and a win over 35 career win Sean Sherk. 

 

MMA Math is usually a recipe for losing when betting , but when you group Edgar with the guys that beat Sherk and Penn and all of the sudden Edgar jumps off the page as a world beater."



"Bouts a toss up"





  

How awesome was Baroni's weigh in? I didn't see it.

 will post the whole interview and more from earlier this week.. or parts  if they dont butcher it later when it goes live..if interests anyone.. 

nyhcloyalty - How awesome was Baroni's weigh in? I didn't see it.



 i fukin missed it... just saw him on scale... he looked good though at the weight...

Shit, meant to TTT this and post that in the other thread. Either way, mission accomplished.



Please post the entire interview when it becomes available!

Maynard beat him already and has won all 5 fights against good competition since then. Of course he's the favorite.

Both guys have improved since the first fight, and Edgar certainly has a good chance to win, but I don't see how he could be the favorite.

 The odds makers don't care who's fighting.  The whole point of the lines is to put it to where they get the most money coming in.  I'd say it's the betting public who think Maynard can/will win.

guida took about 10 minutes to weigh in.

maynard has shown no big weaknesses in his fights and already beat edgar. maynard is still the bigger fighter compared to edgar who seemed to have trouble with gray's size; of course gray is going to be the favorite to win.

Appropriate betting line, since the fight is about as interesting as flipping a coin.

Betting odds for this one should be based on who the judges are, since we all know its going to be a snooze fest.

Thank God for Dream

People are sleeping on this fight so much. Frankie will make it exciting. Believe dat

just wake me when its over.

 

UFC 125 betting: Underdog champ a New Year's gift




 


What better way to ring in the New Year than a punch to the face. That’s what the UFC is banking on, holding UFC 125: Resolution at the MGM Grand Garden Arena in Las Vegas Saturday night.



And if the New Year’s Day card wasn’t treat enough for fight fans, oddsmakers are tempting MMA bettors with a rare opportunity, pricing the defending UFC lightweight champ as the underdog in Saturday’s main event.



Lightweight title holder Frankie Edgar will be listed around +115 when he climbs into the octagon against undefeated challenger Gray Maynard, who opened as the favorite and has been bet up as high as -160 in the months leading into the Jan. 1 event.



Oddsmakers opened the lines for UFC 125 back in September, pricing Maynard at -125, just days after both he and Edgar impressed fans at UFC 118. Maynard took a decision win over lightweight gatekeeper Kenny Florian while Edgar handed B.J. Penn his second straight loss after taking Penn’s title back in April.



“Oddly enough, both Frankie and Gray entered their UFC 118 bouts that night as underdogs and left with a title bout on deck,” says renowned boxing and MMA oddsmaker Joey Oddessa.



This is the second meeting between Edgar and Maynard, who battled each other to a decision at UFC Fight Night in April 2008. That night, Edgar came into the bout as a -160 favorite but fell on the judges’ scorecards to the bigger and stronger opponent, giving him his lone professional defeat.



Oddessa says while Edgar’s loss to Maynard had something to do with the action on the challenger, it didn’t play into the setting of the odds for UFC 125, stating that both fighters are much different combatants now and have 10 combined wins between them since their first meeting.



“It shows how far both fighters have come from undercard status to main-event championship status on New Year’s Day, along with the public perception of both fighters,” Oddessa says of the change in odds between 2008 and this Saturday’s bout.



While he agrees with pricing the defending champ as the underdog, Oddessa believes Edgar has the experience edge, especially with Saturday’s title fight scheduled for five rounds compared to the regular three. This will be Edgar’s third straight five-round bout, going the distance in the last two, while Maynard has yet to compete outside of the three-round format.



“I think the first two rounds will be telling. I always felt opposite the public in that it is often tougher to beat a guy twice,” says Oddessa. “Edgar did that against Penn, but you have to factor in that the bout is 10 minutes longer than their first encounter and that Edgar is now the champion, which gives both added motivation.”



Oddessa expects Edgar to push the tempo early in order to bank rounds, much like he did against Penn. A frustrated Maynard could start chasing the mobile Edgar around, trying to cut off the cage and get into a foot race with a well-conditioned champ adapt to five-round battles.



“The extra 10 minutes and the spotlight are going to be new territory for Gray,” says Oddessa. “I think there are so many unknowns heading into this bout, that Edgar coming in as the champion at plus money might be the way to go.”

 

nyhcloyalty - Shit, meant to TTT this and post that in the other thread. Either way, mission accomplished.



Please post the entire interview when it becomes available!



 The original interview...all the bst and have a great 2011.. 





Looking at the odds, this is a rare spot in which the champion is coming in as the betting underdog. What were the original prices on these guys and where has the action landed since post


I opened the first number on this bout  on  9-1-2010, with Gray Maynard as  a -125 betting favorite just days after Edgar beat Penn convincinly and Gray beat beat Kenny Florian on the same card. Both guys wins were still fresh in players minds. The very first action came in on Frankie, but not enough to cause the line to move.   Basically a pickem. Oddly enough, both Frankie and Gray entered their UFC 118 bouts that night as underdogs and left with a title bout on deck. The bout odds have gradually increased and Gray has been bet up as high as a -160 favorite in the rematch. Gray is around -145 on average now.

 

Maynard has a win over Edgar in 2008. How much does that decision win come into play when setting these odds?


Frankie Edgar opened -160 actually closed higher than a 2 1/2 to 1 betting favorite that night he lost to Maynard at Ultimate Fight Night 13 in April 2008.


 It shows how far both fighters havecome from undercard status to main event championship status on New Years Day along with the public percepetion of both fighters.


The 2008 odds really werent significant in making the current  number. Both fighters have had a combined 10 bouts since that night in 2008 and improved in every aspect of the game. 

 

What was it about Maynard's win over Edgar that stood out to you and will we see it again - why or why not?


 I think the first two rounds will be telling in this bout. I always felt opposite the public in that it is often tougher to beat a guy twice. Edgar did that against Penn. You factor in the bout is an extra 10 minutes longer than  their first encounter and that Edgar is now the champion gives both added motivation. 


 If Edgar gets out of the gate early and banks one of the first two rounds we could see a frustrated Maynard trying to cut off the cage against a mobile and well conditioned champion.  I think the biggest factor will be what Gray can do if or when he takes Edgar down. If he isnt busy on top, the  judges might look at it as passivity and lean the scorecards towards the more effecttive standup fighter which would seem to favor Edgar.  I think we maybe looking at a split decision type bout.

 

Maynard has beaten some big-name guys in recent bouts, knocking off Florian, Diaz and Huerta. Does that impress the public more than Edgar's dominance over BJ Penn?


Anytime a guy carries an undefeated record and a previous win over his opponent it should carry some weight,  but Edgars dominant second win over one of the best fighters in MMA in BJ Penn, it  evens the playing field.  I think the 2008 bout maybe the only standout factor is what caused the small money move on Maynard. 

 

Is Frankie Edgar, in your opinion, worthy of that lightweight title or is he undervalued by bettors?


Were his wins over Penn based on outstanding talent or was he just a bad matchup for Penn, like we've seen in both boxing and MMA where a fighter struggles against one particular opponent?


 Frankie Edgar is absolutely worthy of being a champion. 13-1 with two wins over BJ Penn and a win over 35 career win Sean Sherk. 


 MMA Math is usually a recipe for losing when betting , but when you group Edgar with the guys that beat Sherk and Penn and all of the sudden Edgar jumps off the page as a world beater.




How do you see this one playing out?


 I think if Edgar can have success in the first two rounds he will build on the momentum and can coast to his second successfull defense of the title. On the flipside if Gray can take Edgar down and keep him there he will gain similar type momentum. The X factor here is Gray has not been 5 full rounds yet. While both guys have 16 decision wins, two of Edgars are over the course of 5 rounds. The extra ten minutes and the spotlight are going to be new territory for Gray. I think there are so many unknowns coming into this bout that Edgar coming in as the champion at plus money might be the way to go. I tend to favor the better wrestlers who would be Maynard, but I think this bout is going to be as close as it gets.


 

crap, that's right this is a title fight. I hope Maynard finishes Frankie early, I don't want to watch Dancing with the Stars for 25 minutes.

But I fear we all just might have to!

 ttt for thoughts?

Anyone else find it ironic that the title of 125 was resolution and the main event ended in a draw? Phone Post

BigRedMan -  Anyone else find it ironic that the title of 125 was resolution and the main event ended in a draw? Phone Post
lol...good point...  



crazy there were 90-1 odds out there on the draw...I dealt it  35-1(just under 3% chance) ...the 90-1 was about 1% chance matmatically ...

aKaBeasTTT - People are sleeping on this fight so much. Frankie will make it exciting. Believe dat


I'm just going to quote myself for a second.

Oddessa - 
BigRedMan -  Anyone else find it ironic that the title of 125 was resolution and the main event ended in a draw? Phone Post
lol...good point...  



crazy there were 90-1 odds out there on the draw...I dealt it  35-1(just under 3% chance) ...the 90-1 was about 1% chance matmatically ...
Damn 90-1???

I got it on sportsbook.com at 35-1 last night....wish I'd have put more than the minumum $5 on it now.

After seeing the 1st was definitely not 10-9, I knew my draw bet was very much in play....i was probably one of the very few happy with that outcome last night.