Three fights to review in breaking down this upcoming fight are GSP vs Serra 1, Karo vs Serra, and GSP vs Hughes 3.
A fresh Matt Serra is extremely dangerous on the feet, as seen in both GSP vs Serra 1 and Karo vs Serra. Unlike Karo, though, St Pierre wasn't able to survive Matt's initial surge because he tried to continue trading instead of neutralizing Matt's offense. Some might call it stalling, but there's a purpose for holding on until you have your legs back. St. Pierre has likely learned this lesson.
The most effective way of neutralizing a dangerous striker is to take him down. GSP is an agile and powerful wrestler, and coupled with the threat of effective strikes I imagine he'll be able to take Serra down eventually if not immediately. One can't simply look at Serra vs GSP 1 and conclude that St. Pierre isn't dangerous on the feet... overall he's probably the best striker in the division.
Although Hughes might not be the submission threat that Matt Serra is, St. Pierre demonstrated a very dominant top game throughout their third fight. Unless St. Pierre loses his concentration entirely I don't see him getting subbed automatically from guard. Again Serra is skilled off his back but not unstoppable.
I see St. Pierre passing to half guard (either through GNP or straight off the takedown) and mauling Serra with elbows as Karo did. Because of his improved BJJ and incredible agility I don't see St Pierre getting swept. I see him winning this via GNP if he can weather the storm
"Either way this fight is for second place, we all know who the true world #1 is and that's Jake Shields until he loses or at least gets punched in the face again."
What #1 ranked fighter did he beat to be "the true world #1"?
p.s. that's the only way to become #1 other than an elimination between #2 and #3 after #1 retires.
For the sake of argument, Sherk does have fast hands but not KO power, that's why he manages to land what he does (I can't recall any instances of him truly rocking or KO-ing any top fighters). St. Pierre took him down and battered him. And my whole argument involves GSP avoid the stand-up anyway because I think he can control Serra and avoid subs. When was Serra's last submission win anyway?
CeeBloom last time I checked BJ is fighting Lightweight so I didn't bother addressing him. Yes BJ certainly got the best of him in the first round but the damage looked far worse than it was. St. Pierre went on to win btw
No way GSP loses this one. I just can't see their second fight being a repeat of the first one.
"GSP won't have an advantage on the ground even if he does decide to take Serra down. Serra is a crafty veteran BJJ black-belt, look for him to sweep or submit GSP from the bottom. At the very least he will escape back to his feet where he has the best chance of winning this fight."
Doubtful. Most of GSP's biggest wins have come against people who were supposed to control him on the ground. He more than held his own against BJ Penn and I don't see where Serra is going to be any different. And the idea that he's going to be at some sort of advantage on the feet is laughable as well. Let's not forget that this is the guy who before this was best known for getting ko'd with a spinning back fist, then getting hit with the exact same move when he finally got a rematch.
Have you already made a S/N bet with someone? I'll be more than happy to you on if you're really that confident in Serra's chances.
"GSP won't have an advantage on the ground even if he does decide to take Serra down. Serra is a crafty veteran BJJ black-belt, look for him to sweep or submit GSP from the bottom. At the very least he will escape back to his feet where he has the best chance of winning this fight."
Why makes you think Serra will easily sweep, sub or get up from GSP? What fight of his leads you to believe this?
I still have yet to get a Serra backer to accept/confirm a straight up Screen Name bet with me and yet I see the same members continue to talk smack for their man. Why do you think that is? Maybe not having complete confidence in your guy winning?
Cool man. You probably have seen some of my posts on this fight; I want to be clear Serra is dangerous, like BJ said "Serra is no joke", not to mention the fact that BJ refused to go to the ground with Matt.
Matt has got one punch KO power and sic BJJ; tough out for any elite WW. Just think GSP will be so much more mentally and physically prepared for Serra this time around. Should be a good one!