GSP will beat Serra by....

Serra more rounded? LOL

whatever he wants

pete spratt and bj penn have pretty heavy hands,i wouldnt say serra was his first test,plus i dont remember ANYONE saying Serra"s best chance was a ko,now hes a monster at standup

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Should be noted that Serra had a serious injury coming into the Karo fight that did not allow him to train cardio at all. Wich is why he gassed out so quickly after flash KOing Karo.

Another interesting factor is that GSP has only fought 1 other world class bjj blackbelt. And he did zero damage with G&P or attempted to pass the guard. And GSP using popular UG logic had more submission wins than this blackbelt aswell

Diego I assume you're talking about Penn, right?  I think GSP's groundgame and particularly guard passing has improved greatly since that fight, but then again I'll concede that the best gauge of his improvement should be relative to top blackbelts. 

Who do you think takes this fight, and how?

 

Im sure GSP has improved a lot since that fight. But against who has he shown this improvement? Koscheck and Hughes are great grapplers. But neither are exactly great from their back. And definatly not worldclass


I would say GSP is and should be clear cut favourite. He could pick Serra apart from distance. Or take him down and stack him up against the fence where bjj is somewhat neutralized and G&P

But i am betting money on Serra. The odds are too good to pass on. Maybe there is something behind GSP admitting he did not want to be on the ground with Serra. Or how he reacts to someone basically going after him

Diego stole my name - Should be noted that Serra had a serious injury coming into the Karo fight that did not allow him to train cardio at all. Wich is why he gassed out so quickly after flash KOing Karo.


Serra said in an interview that he'd never take a fight if he wasn't 100% healthy. I'd like to believe him. Either way, his guard game was lacking in both ability to avoid damage as well as submission attempts. Even with poor cardio, it was not a confidence inspiring performance, and Karo's GNP isn't among the top WWs.


Another interesting factor is that GSP has only fought 1 other world class bjj blackbelt. And he did zero damage with G&P or attempted to pass the guard. And GSP using popular UG logic had more submission wins than this blackbelt aswell


GSP did try to pass BJ's guard, it's obviously not easy. At the end of the fight, GSP was passing to half guard when the fight ended. Minor point, but nevertheless.

When GSP fought Penn, they had an equal number of submission wins in the UFC (1 each). However, unlike Serra, BJ also had 4 TKOs at that time to go along with that submission win (which was against the WW champ, and not a no-name scrub). Since the GSP-BJ fight, GSP has a sub over the former WW champ, and BJ has 2 more sub wins, again a stark contrast to Serra's resume.

I see what you're saying Diego...  GSP is quite the gifted athlete, but based on the first fight I'm not sure he's got the same world-class instinct (or subconscious will or whatever you want to call it) to successfully gather his composure when it's absolutely necessary.  Think of Fedor when he was rocked against Fujita, he did exactly what he needed to do to survive. GSP tried to continue trading and it cost him.  I don't know if that's a kind of skill that one can develop effectively without praticing composure in near concussive states, which would be counterproductive for anyone let alone a pro fighter.  Thus I think he should come in with a plan that minimizes him getting caught again...

"Serra said in an interview that he'd never take a fight if he wasn't 100% healthy. I'd like to believe him. Either way, his guard game was lacking in both ability to avoid damage as well as submission attempts. Even with poor cardio, it was not a confidence inspiring performance, and Karo's GNP isn't among the top WWs."


Yes and this was a recent interview. You dont think its possible that his performance against Karo has something do to with that? And if he is injured to the point where he cannot do cardio. You dont think it can hinder his movement on the ground?


"GSP did try to pass BJ's guard, it's obviously not easy. At the end of the fight, GSP was passing to half guard when the fight ended. Minor point, but nevertheless."


The point still remains. GSP has only fought 1 world class blackbelt in his career. And his offence both with G&P and grappling were almost nonexistant. Maybe because unlike Koscheck, Trigg, Hughes, Sherk. BJ can actually fight off his back


"When GSP fought Penn, they had an equal number of submission wins in the UFC (1 each). However, unlike Serra, BJ also had 4 TKOs at that time to go along with that submission win (which was against the WW champ, and not a no-name scrub). Since the GSP-BJ fight, GSP has a sub over the former WW champ, and BJ has 2 more sub wins, again a stark contrast to Serra's resume."



You are pretty much proving that stats are not as big a factor on the outcome of a fight as people want to believe. Otherwise Serra with no TKO wins in the UFC would not have been able to TKO GSP while BJ lost a decision.

Diego stole my name - 
Yes and this was a recent interview. You dont think its possible that his performance against Karo has something do to with that? And if he is injured to the point where he cannot do cardio. You dont think it can hinder his movement on the ground?


Which was a recent interview? The one I heard had Serra state he'd never take a fight without being 100%. Serra would have us believe he's a guy who tells the truth.


The point still remains. GSP has only fought 1 world class blackbelt in his career. And his offence both with G&P and grappling were almost nonexistant. Maybe because unlike Koscheck, Trigg, Hughes, Sherk. BJ can actually fight off his back


And Serra has only fought 1 other guy who's a wrestler type/top control with excellent GNP, and that was Karo (and calling Karo's GNP excellent may be a stretch). And we saw how that turned out, and it was bad for Serra, as he was GNPed by Karo with ease. BJ Penn's submission game, off-his-back game, and overall MMA game have proven to be superior to Serra's, which is an important note if that comparison is even remotely considered.



You are pretty much proving that stats are not as big a factor on the outcome of a fight as people want to believe. Otherwise Serra with no TKO wins in the UFC would not have been able to TKO GSP while BJ lost a decision.


Stats are a tool used to indicate trends and point to a likely winner, but they're never foolproof. It's a strawman for you to insinuate that anyone claimed they were 100% accurate. What actual results do is provide an indication of fighters strengths and weaknesses, based upon level of competition, and those indicate GSP's advantage once this fight hits the ground.

"The point still remains. GSP has only fought 1 world class blackbelt in his career. And his offence both with G&P and grappling were almost nonexistant. Maybe because unlike Koscheck, Trigg, Hughes, Sherk. BJ can actually fight off his back"

Hughes is a better ground fighter than Serra in MMA. No debate on this. Hughes has finished countless top guys on the ground, Serra's finished........

Not saying Serra cant submit GSP, Serra is a bjj whiz as we all know just far from one who can finish in MMA. And looking at his past fights, exactly which fight points to him giving GSP so much trouble on the ground?

Also, comparing GSP's recent domination of Hughes on the ground to when BJ tapped Hughes, id say GSP dominated Hughes much worse and quicker.

"Which was a recent interview? The one I heard had Serra state he'd never take a fight without being 100%. Serra would have us believe he's a guy who tells the truth."

The one you are bringing up right now. Or are you saying he gave that interview around the Karo fight?

Wasa-B

Hughes is a better ground fighter than Serra in MMA. But now you are simplifying it. There is more to it than that. Hughes is a great grappler and finisher. But his strength is being on top. Anytime he has been put on his back. He has been in trouble. Whereas Serra is very comfortable on his back.

He wiil beat him by taking him down and G'n'p' some vicious hurt on Serra.Serra should have kept his large trap and goofy grin to himself.

stats are like loose women...once you've got 'em you can do whatever you want with them

sacredhate - stats are like loose women...once you've got 'em you can do whatever you want with them


You can't make them say that Serra has submitted anyone remotely decent in the UFC, however, regardless of what cliche you'd like to apply.

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GSP is going to try to take it to the ground like his life depends on it.

great gameplan and execution by GSP tonight  :)


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