"probability only gives you an idea of what SHOULD
happen, not what WILL happen."
I guess we are back to the same old debate.
Your statement is correct when applied to individual
occurences, such as one coin flip, but not when
applied to many many occurrences with short odds, such
as 100,000 coin flips.
In the first case, probability gives no indication of
what the results will be. In the second, it gives you
a guarantee that the results will be almost exactly
"the whole point of standard distributions is that
there is a standard distribution - not a uniform
distribution. if the great mass are equally lucky,
there must be a few either far luckier or far
unluckier than that middle mass."
Yes, but if the standard deviation is very small, that
difference is effectively zero in practical terms. If
100,000 people flip a coin 100,000 times each, the guy
who makes the most # of heads won't be very far off
from 50/50. Just like if you play 100,000 poker hands
the guy with the best luck in catching cards won't be
far off from average.
"but the statement, "I refuse to believe that any
player is lucky beyond what is statistically
possible..", implies both a misunderstanding of
probability theory and a faith in probalility that
mirrors religious ferver, not rational use of
statistics as they may or may not relfect real life."
No, you are misunderstanding me. I know that the more
repetitions you have of the same random event, the
more the results will average out. Eventually you get
to a point where some results (like flipping 10,000
heads in a row) are so unlikely as to be statistically
impossible (one in 2 to the 10,000th power). All I am
saying is that I don't think luck can make the
statistically impossible possible. I don't think
anyone can be lucky enough to flip 10,000 heads in a
If Gus's luck IS statistically possible, then I can
believe it. But if it's NOT, I can't. I don't have the
data to determine what the situation is, I am just
saying that no one is so lucky as to make math
"Fraser believes what should happen, has to happen."
No, if you think that's true you don't understand what
I am saying. I think that if math shows that if you
flip a coin 100,000 times and it will be between
49,000 and 51,000 heads 99.99999% of the time, then in
PRACTICAL terms it's impossible to have any other
result. That's all. I am saying what math predicts
will happen 99.99999% of the time pretty much HAS to
"i love watching the guy play but the mark of a solid
player is putting your money in with the best of it
In low-level poker, absolutely. In world-class NL, I
think that it's more important to play players and a
good, aggressive bluffer who knows what his opponent
is thinking will beat a player with a solid "card-