"probability only gives you an idea of what SHOULD

happen, not what WILL happen."

I guess we are back to the same old debate.

Your statement is correct when applied to individual

occurences, such as one coin flip, but not when

applied to many many occurrences with short odds, such

as 100,000 coin flips.

In the first case, probability gives no indication of

what the results will be. In the second, it gives you

a guarantee that the results will be almost exactly

50/50.

"the whole point of standard distributions is that

there is a standard distribution - not a uniform

distribution. if the great mass are equally lucky,

there must be a few either far luckier or far

unluckier than that middle mass."

Yes, but if the standard deviation is very small, that

difference is effectively zero in practical terms. If

100,000 people flip a coin 100,000 times each, the guy

who makes the most # of heads won't be very far off

from 50/50. Just like if you play 100,000 poker hands

the guy with the best luck in catching cards won't be

far off from average.

"but the statement, "I refuse to believe that any

player is lucky beyond what is statistically

possible..", implies both a misunderstanding of

probability theory and a faith in probalility that

mirrors religious ferver, not rational use of

statistics as they may or may not relfect real life."

No, you are misunderstanding me. I know that the more

repetitions you have of the same random event, the

more the results will average out. Eventually you get

to a point where some results (like flipping 10,000

heads in a row) are so unlikely as to be statistically

impossible (one in 2 to the 10,000th power). All I am

saying is that I don't think luck can make the

statistically impossible possible. I don't think

anyone can be lucky enough to flip 10,000 heads in a

row.

If Gus's luck IS statistically possible, then I can

believe it. But if it's NOT, I can't. I don't have the

data to determine what the situation is, I am just

saying that no one is so lucky as to make math

irrelevant.

"Fraser believes what should happen, has to happen."

No, if you think that's true you don't understand what

I am saying. I think that if math shows that if you

flip a coin 100,000 times and it will be between

49,000 and 51,000 heads 99.99999% of the time, then in

PRACTICAL terms it's impossible to have any other

result. That's all. I am saying what math predicts

will happen 99.99999% of the time pretty much HAS to

happen.

"i love watching the guy play but the mark of a solid

player is putting your money in with the best of it

not outdrawing."

In low-level poker, absolutely. In world-class NL, I

think that it's more important to play players and a

good, aggressive bluffer who knows what his opponent

is thinking will beat a player with a solid "card-

based" game.