Im trying to play out Gaethje/Charles. So Im gonna use some MMA math here:
Gaethje seems to hit like a truck, KOing Vick and Barboza, yet he couldn’t put Chandler away who was KO’d by Charles (who isn’t known to have KO power) a 145er (pitbull) and Khabib seemed to walk thru everything Gaethje threw at him.
Dustin on the other hand has put out Conor and Gaethje who both seem durable, and although stunned Charles, didn’t put him out.
If Charles could survive Dustin, is it safe to say he can handle Gaethjes pressure and power?
No, styles make fights and MMA math does not work.
Chandler didn’t have his feet with him, and pulled straight back into a hook vs Oliveria. Oliveria overwhelemed Chandler for the finish
1b. Gaethje absolutely FLAT LINED Chandler with an uppercut which had Chandler way more unconscious then Oliveria ever had Chandler. Gaethje just didn’t swarm him like Oliveria did. Gaethje put an absolute clinic on Chandler. Chandler was actually competitive with Oliveria
Gaethje is a much better striker then Poirier. Poirier beat Gaethje by exploiting his high guard. Current Gaethje fixed all his issues with his high guard (if you want breakdowns on that let me know) and has much better footwork now. Even then, green in the UFC Gaethje was wrecking Poirier. Current Gaethje would be a big favorite over Poirier today
Gaethje is much harder to take down then Poirier is. Poirier may be a great grappler, but taking Poirier down has never been difficult. And Gaethje may be a turtle off his back, but the act of actually taking Gaethje down to the ground and putting him on his back is very difficult and something only Khabib has ever accomplished.
Gaethje and Chandler are similar, except Gaethje is the way better version, and we already saw what Chandler did to Oliveria. Gaethje is gonna run Oliveria the fuck over like a freight train
No way to really know, but Dustin looks like he hits just as hard as Gaethje, but with more volume and better defense.
I see Gaethje most likely landing some good shots on Do Bronx that don’t put him away, but eventually succumbing to the next level pressure Charles puts on fighters.
I think those knees to the body and standing elbows did some damage to Poirier that could have made him quit?
This past fight did not look like the Poirier that fought Hooker or Max, I think it was the body work along with the outsized fear he had of being subbed. It’s rare to see fighters give up an entire round for 4 minutes and be elbowed in the face. Reminds me of UFC 10+ years ago.
This is very true, and Gaethje is one of the very few to defend against Khabib’s takedowns.
I see Gaethje being a very tough test for Oliveira.
I see Oliveira definitely having more ways to win but that requires Oliveira to get him into a clinch.
One of the most unique things I’ve ever seen from a fighter is how Oliveira submits people while standing. he has 16 submisions and 5 of them are from opponents standing up.
Here is Poirier himself saying none of the body work had any effect on him (and Poirier has always been truthful)
braindead newbs who know nothing about fighting, who get all their opinions from Rogan and ignorant biased UFC commentary have been running amuck with stupid narratives (I’m speaking in general. It’s not an attack on you)
Yeah, Poirier was so effected by this supposed body work, that Poirier kept coming forward with his guard up, showing no regard for his body, and shooting 2s off leadhand grabs/pulls with impunity!
Poirier wrecked Oliveria standing
Oliveria gassed Poirier by wrestling him all round 2. He won by wrestling. Not by anything done in the striking. Ive been seeing that people have been getting insanely delusional with this fight. Trying to pretend Oliveria was dominant is just not reality
Yeah I did actually think Dustin looked unusually tired at the start of the third round. I think that’s why Charles got his back so quickly and easily while standing
Interestingly enough, Makhachev’s best shot at gold is if Gaethje is champ. Otherwise if Oliveria stays champ, Makhachev is never touching that belt. Fighting is all about styles. Gaethje>>Oliveria>>Makhachev>>Gaethje
I do see Oliveira beating Islam, and I see him being favored to beat Gaethje but not a lock. He really cannot afford to take shots from Gaethje like he did Dustin, it’s asking for trouble.
I think you mean he did not show any signs that he was hurt? Yes indeed.
You can’t really asses anything from round 2. Poirier was taken down 5 seconds into the round. If round 2 had stayed on the feet maybe Poirier knocks him out cold.
Hindsight all too often gives us a pre-concieved notion as the distorted lens with how we look back at things. It happens to all of us. It’s human nature
If anything, I believe Poirier was weight drained. He did not look right to me even before the fight. And the Khabib fight already showed that Poirier crumbles at any sign of being on the bottom. Poirier is an amazing striker, but as a grappler hes the defintion of “can be the hammer (on top) but can’t be the nail (on bottom)”
Gaethje may be even worse on bottom, but unlike Poirier, Gaethje has at least worked hard on being extremely hard to take down (where as Poirier is easier to take down then a kid with a broken leg on crutches
Poirier is pretty good in the clinch. What Oliveria did well is use head control off his MISSES to wrap up collar ties
How ever Poirier did NOT know how to defend against the head control off punches
You want to pry off, or break the head control with punching opposite side of the head control
Where as Poirier the idiot had the “Rich Franklin defense” of trying to break with strength (push off) or by standing upright to try and break the grip. USE YOUR HANDS you dummie!
Gaethje actually knows how to break head control, and himself is even more brilliant at wrapping up head control off misses and punishing people with his free hand
In other words Gaethje will beat him to the head control and punish him with his free hand
And also check out, how after Gaethje punishes him off his head control, how he exits outside the shoulder! Beautiful!
Gaethje is gonna run Oliveria over. That’s just what the footage shows. Gaethje is the most under rated technician in the UFC
I agree with most of what you’re saying…however, is it fair to say “this version” of Gaethje isn’t as good of a finisher as Poirier? He used to be reckless, and would go after guys and get them out of there, but occasionally would fuck up and get caught with shots he shouldn’t take.
So this defensive minded version of Gaethje has looked great against Ferguson and Chandler, but had both guys BADLY hurt and never stopped Chandler, and stopped Tony super late.
Given that Charles has proven to be pretty durable lately, and weathered early storms from Chandler and Poirier, kept pushing forward and finished them after being badly hurt…how does that play into Gaethje’s style? Charles is a FANTASTIC finisher, and is finishing elite competition after being badly hurt. Is letting that guy hang around for 5 rounds a good idea?
I’m picking Gaethje to win the fight, but I’m not at all confident, and a clinch to back take, to standing RNC wouldn’t shock me in the least bit here.
Poirier was 100% weight drained. The only other time Poirier has looked this off from the start was against Khabib where Poirier said he was exhausted from Dubai’s hot weather plus fighting early in the morning
