Here's why people think Serra will win . . .

A lot of people want to feel like they see all of the angles. They like to feel like they see something that others don't.

They publicly state that Serra will win the rematch, so they can later point out their deep insight on the off chance Serra wins.

So far, however, the best rationale I've heard for why Serra will win is that "it's a bad matchup for GSP." This phrase means nothing.

I have no insight and/or rationale for picking Serra. I am just rooting for him

Thanks for the insight. starts to clap slowly

I imagine the people picking Serra saw the first fight. Does that count as something that "others don't" see?

:-)

 People also don't realize there is a difference between rooting and picking somebody. Just because I am rooting for one guy doesnt mean I am picking him to win. I am also rooting for AND picking GSP to win.

 

LOL @ starts clap slowly

Those that are rooting for Serra, fine. I understand that, I like the guy and wish him well.

But there are some here that feel confident that he will win again. I think they are disingenuous. Most don't give any reason for their belief (although Elias makes a decent point).

I'll say it again, this fight will end in a draw.

Cuz I'm that fucking good!!

Here is why Serra will win:

Nobody tells the truth, Adrian. No, maybe I can't win. Maybe the only thing I can do is take everything he's got. But to beat me, he's gonna have to kill me. And to kill me, he's gonna have to have the heart to stand in front of me. And to do that, he's gotta be willing to die himself. I don't know if he's ready to do that... I don't know.

I don't think GSP has to "kill" him to win, that's silly.

( clap clap clap clap clap clap clap clapclapclapclapclap)

BigDaddy,

GSP may generally have a problem with the psychological aspect of the game (which contributed to his first loss), but he's focused this time.

His previous loss to Serra is irrelevant. Serra still has to bring skills to bear that he does not possess.

elmobob14 - Those that are rooting for Serra, fine. I understand that, I like the guy and wish him well. But there are some here that feel confident that he will win again. I think they are disingenuous. Most don't give any reason for their belief (although Elias makes a decent point).

ELMOBOB14-  This is for rooting for Serra...I wouldn't say that I am rooting for him...even though I picked him to win....last time and this time.....I like both fighters and am rooting for  a good fight.  BUt like before, I am picking Serra to win mainly because of the match-up that you say has norelevance.  GSP doesn't match up well with Serra...and I like that excuse....but here is the reason...which is still just an opinion.

Serra is a shorter more scrappy fighter.  GSP with his traditional training has an amazing ground game and a really good striking game as well...the only problem is......his striking revolves around his traditional martial arts training which is very rangey.  Basically, his strikes that he is successul at is the ones that he can throw when an opponent is away.  Since, Serra is shorter and has heavier hands....he is more of a counter fighter and is scrappy enough to not be afraid of bearing his head in GSP's chest and throwing bombs.   GSP's weakness, IMO, is that he has no inside striking skills....he fights more from a distance.  Serra banks on that and did exactly what he should have in the first fight.  He waited to counter and when he saw an opening, he rushed in and kept GSP on his heels forcing him to be more defensive with his strikes opposed to offensive.  With Serra being shorter in stature and in reach...inside is where he wanted to be and he took advantage of that...and I feel that he will do it again.

 

It's basically like me saying that A. Silva is a bad match-up for Franklin.....which holds true...so hopefully, that holds weight with you.   In Franklin's case, he can destroy everyone in the Middleweight division...except Silva....100% because he doens't match up well with him.  I can explain further if you need more info on this...but we can save that for another thread.
 

^^ NO ONE matches up well with A. Silva, IMO

 

 You wanna know why people think Serra will win?

Because GSP got bitch-made in their first fight.

It wasn't some flash ko or bad stoppage. It wasn't a fluke. It wasn't a stupid mistake made by GSP that caused him to give up a text book submission.

It was a thoroughly decisive domination. GSP didn't even go out. He tapped from punches while Matt was knocking the dogshit out of him.

Now, personally, I give GSP a very good chance to win this fight... possibly a bit of an edge because he's pissed. But the reason why people think Serra will win is as clear as my urine after a long night of drinking. He's 100% against GSP. That's good reason.

fightmagjonny-- i like that you at least make a cogent argument in favor of Serra. You make decent points explaining the result in the first meeting, but I think that GSP will compensate for those weaknesses in the second matchup.

I think that the reason that Serra was able to capitalize on those weaknesses in the first instance is that GSP simply didn't respect him at all, and hence didn't perceive a threat. Now, GSP knows that he's dangerous. I expect that GSP will take him to the ground and his atheletism will take it from there.

Altofsky - 

 You wanna know why people think Serra will win?

Because GSP got bitch-made in their first fight.

It wasn't some flash ko or bad stoppage. It wasn't a fluke. It wasn't a stupid mistake made by GSP that caused him to give up a text book submission.

It was a thoroughly decisive domination. GSP didn't even go out. He tapped from punches while Matt was knocking the dogshit out of him.

Now, personally, I give GSP a very good chance to win this fight... possibly a bit of an edge because he's pissed. But the reason why people think Serra will win is as clear as my urine after a long night of drinking. He's 100% against GSP. That's good reason.

All of the reasons why Serra won in the first fight are not present in the second fight.  Serra is simply outmatched and he cannot count on catching GSP unaware this time around.

Last time Serra met an arrogant GSP that didn't respect him.  The respect is there now and the loss has served to focus GSP.  Serra will lose in spectacular fashion a la Matt Hughes.
 

It's obvious why Serra seems like a good pick. In their first fight he controlled the standup, knocked GSP down and finished him. It didn't appear to be a fluky win, his standup looked much sharper. It wasen't about conditioning, he just looked better. The reason that GSP has a good chance in the rematch is he will work on his flaws and if he can't correct them go to plan B [takedown]. Nobody seems to elevate their game from fight to fight like GSP [see Hughes fights]. The things you can't improve much are speed and chin, if Serra tags him again he's toast.

jpm995 - It's obvious why Serra seems like a good pick. In their first fight he controlled the standup, knocked GSP down and finished him. It didn't appear to be a fluky win, his standup looked much sharper. It wasen't about conditioning, he just looked better. The reason that GSP has a good chance in the rematch is he will work on his flaws and if he can't correct them go to plan B [takedown]. Nobody seems to elevate their game from fight to fight like GSP [see Hughes fights]. The things you can't improve much are speed and chin, if Serra tags him again he's toast.

Serra's win wasn't fluky in the sense that he thoroughly destroyed GSP. But it was a fluke in the sense that GSP came with a mindset that cannot be counted on in future matchups. So, maybe you don't like the word "fluke," but Serra took advantage of a one-time opportunity.

That opportunity will not be there the second time around.

 "All of the reasons why Serra won in the first fight are not present in the second fight."

His fists aren't going to be present in this fight?