Well, I often critizise the writers some of the top UFC websites use for their predictions or gambling advice columns so tonight Ill do a little predictions and gambling myself. There are 6 fights I will be gambling on simply because i think they are locks. Im picking all of the following favorites with the exception of Hazelett who is a slight underdog. I am only doing this for fun so I will only wager $50 dollars. Here is my break down of the wager.
$15 Oliveira to win 10.71
$15 Hazelett to win 15.75
$10 Almeida to win 5.26
$10 Parlay Alves, GSP, Struve to win 17.08
$50 to win 48.80
Koscheck is a formidable athlete, one of the few who can match GSP in athleticism and explosiveness. Unfortunately that’s where the similarities end. Koscheck is a fighter; GSP is a martial artist. Koscheck has certainly developed into a Chuck Liddell of the 170lb division but like chuck Liddell, he relies on over hand rights for his KO power. This has served him well against Yoshida, Trigg, and Hazelett; all opponents who simply lacked the ability to take the fight to the ground. GSP is probably the smartest fighter in the entire UFC let alone the 170lb division. I expect this fight to go very much like the first as Koscheck comes in looking to strike and instead ends up on his back. He’ll be able to get back up to his feet by creating scrambles but look for him to get back up less and less as the rounds progress. I like for GSP to either TKO or submit an overmatched Koscheck somewhere in the championship rounds. At -400 this is simply not a good straight bet which is why I placed him in a parlay.
Howard vs Alves
Alves is my favorite striker in the 170lb division. His struggles have come against GSP and Fitch both excellent wrestlers who were able to control him. This does not mean Alves has poor take down defense or that he is one dimensional. I expect Howard to come in and try to strike with Alves only to realize early on that he is over matched. Howard hits hard but unless he is able to hurt Alves, he lacks the skills to match Alves in a toe to toe stand up battle. Alves by KO in the second round is my prediction.
Bocek vs Hazelett
This is a fight I am really looking forward to. It will be interesting to see Hazelett fight at 155lbs. A division he claims will allow him to fight at his natural weight class. I expect this fight to be more of a stand up battle than most realize as neither will be willing to give up a takedown. The difference will be Hazelett’s reach. Hazelett by unanimous decision is the prediction here.
fastrack - the best bet on this card is the gsp/kos fight going over 3 1/2 rounds at +110 which is what I put my money on
I agree. If the fight ends it ends late in the fourth or in the fifth.
Struve vs mcCorkle
McCorkle is undefeated in his MMA career but I am just not sold on him yet. Watching him at the weigh ins I think he is more interested in being an entertainer than a fighter. He has never faced someone like Struve. By that I mean someone as good on the feet or on the ground. I expect this to be fight of the night. McCorkle will come out aggressive and probably win a dominant first round only to gas out before the second round starts. This fight comes down to wether Struve’s technique can overcome McCorkle’s strength and this will favor Struve once McCorkle gasses. Struve by TKO in the second round.
I think Miller will over-power Oliveira. He is a tough veteran who is very good at everything. I think his wrestling is good enough he can take it to the ground or keep it standing. I think this fight mostly stays standing and Miller pulls it out by being stronger and a more powerful striker.
Am I the only one who thinks Oliveira would perform even better at 145?
Bocek will control Hazelette for the win with his superior wrestling sklls. I have doubts as to whether they can sub each other in a 3 round fight, unless one rocks the other first. However, Bocek is the better wrestler, so I see him riding out the win from top position. If Hazelette doesn't get the sub, he will lose.
I also have Stevenson winning his match with Mac. It seems to me that Joe is better in every position, has better experience against top competition, and has a better training camp.
Those are my 3 plays this card.
Also, if McCorkle can take Struve down, he will be in a great position to win this fight. Struve is not as strong and is a poor wrestler. Struve strikes me as a very risky bet.
But good luck.
i got mac at + 250
This is a good fight and bet IMO
futon1 - Also, if McCorkle can take Struve down, he will be in a great position to win this fight. Struve is not as strong and is a poor wrestler. Struve strikes me as a very risky bet.
But good luck.
I agree. But Struve had very good survival instincts as we saw in his last fight.
wreckker - i got mac at + 250
This is a good fight and bet IMO
I agree. But I think Stevenson goes back to his roots and dominates a grappling oriented match. Having said that, I can see Mac pulling of the upset.
In that ast fight, you also saw to what degree Struve's wrestling skills need improvement.
McCorkle is a risk because he is so un-tested and inexperienced against top competition.
Struve is a risk because he is vulnerable to GnP, especially to a bigger and stronger opponent.
My gut feeling is McCorkle can get it to the ground and win there.
Please explain how Mac wins this fight against Stevenson.
I can see a KO being possible, it's a fight, after all.
However, can you compare their bjj games? Their wrestling? Their experience against good quality opponents? Their coaching or training partners?
Everything is to Joe's advantage.
futon1 - Please explain how Mac wins this fight against Stevenson.
I can see a KO being possible, it's a fight, after all.
However, can you compare their bjj games? Their wrestling? Their experience against good quality opponents? Their coaching or training partners?
Everything is to Joe's advantage.
I do believe that Stevenson will pull it off. But Mac is not the underdog most are making him out to be. Stevenson has proven vulnerable against strikers with good ground games. Sotiropolous and Sanchez both lit him up on the feet to win unanimous decisions. Danzig is very well rounded and his record does a poor job of reflecting that. If he can keep this a striking match he will win a decision.
futon1 - In that ast fight, you also saw to what degree Struve's wrestling skills need improvement.
McCorkle is a risk because he is so un-tested and inexperienced against top competition.
Struve is a risk because he is vulnerable to GnP, especially to a bigger and stronger opponent.
My gut feeling is McCorkle can get it to the ground and win there.
your gut is correct but he needs to do it in the first round.
I put money on Alves winning a three round decision. I think he'll pick apart Howard, but Howard is a tough guy to finish.
explodin - If that is all you can afford to bet how do you afford the ppv? Do u just watch a stream? If u hit every bet it still isn't the price of the ppv <img src="/images/phone/post_tag.png" alt="Phone Post" border="0" style="vertical-align:middle;"/>
Im not gambling to make money, its just for fun. After years of making fun of columnist I decided to do my own. If anything it will be good ammo for those who want to make fun of me after the fights. And to answer your question, I will be watching the fights in a local bar.
Kalin Johnston - I put money on Alves winning a three round decision. I think he'll pick apart Howard, but Howard is a tough guy to finish.
How do you figure? he has 5 losses. 3 of those have been stoppages.
elburrogrande -Kalin Johnston - I put money on Alves winning a three round decision. I think he'll pick apart Howard, but Howard is a tough guy to finish.
How do you figure? he has 5 losses. 3 of those have been stoppages.
One of those is by submission and I don't see Alves tapping him out. Another was from a doctor stoppage which is always a rare occurrence. He can take a beating on the feet.
Kalin Johnston -elburrogrande -Kalin Johnston - I put money on Alves winning a three round decision. I think he'll pick apart Howard, but Howard is a tough guy to finish.
How do you figure? he has 5 losses. 3 of those have been stoppages.
One of those is by submission and I don't see Alves tapping him out. Another was from a doctor stoppage which is always a rare occurrence. He can take a beating on the feet.
Alves is a brown belt in BJJ. Dont count out a scenario were Howard gets dropped with strikes and submitted on the ground.