I Win 0% of the time - but I call anyway?

Here's a slightly modified hand I played today (hopefully the code works):

$2/$4 No Limit Holdem
3 players
Converted at weaktight.com


Stacks:

BTN ($373.70)
SB ($1249.38)
Hero ($467.90)

Pre-flop: ($6, 3 players) Hero is BB

BTN calls $4, SB calls $2, Hero checks

Flop: ($12, 3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $12, BTN calls $12, SB folds

Turn: ($36, 2 players)
Hero bets $30, BTN calls $30

River: ($96, 2 players)
Hero bets $40, BTN raises to $80, $40 to Hero ($381.9)?



Now if I say my gut says that if I call I lose most the time... but some of the time I will chop the pot with another Ax hand. That is, I think if I call I will lose 67% of the time, and will chop the pot 33% of the time. And of course then I have 0% of winning the whole pot.

So I have no chance of winning the pot if I call. At best I chop it.

My gut is right, I will mostly lose if I call, and at best some minority of the time I will chop. But I call anyway.

if you assume %33 chancee to tie for the main pot you're about even money to call the $40 ... maybe $5 below even.

Although I have seen really bad river bluffs like this by bad players at the 1-2 and 2-4 limits, so that at least gives you some win equity (probably less than 10%).

 Hard to turn down 5.5 to 1, if this could ever be a bluff I say it's a good call. 



Let's see... if you are trying for a chop, you are calling $40 to win about $110, which is 2.75 to 1, which is somewhere around 28%, right? So 33% chance at a chop is profitable.

what about the times the guy has a str8, a flush or a boat ?

of course 3 handed i probably make the crying call

 How was my answer, PR?

Ya pretty close. The point of this thread was just to show a situation where you can NEVER win the whole pot and a call is still correct.

Well maybe almost 0% win but u know 'never say never", sometimes I call even with negative expecation in the hand.

At times I want to make players think I defend with weaker holdings than I normally will.

Especially on smaller sites where you play with the smae pool of players every day it can help your table image by making " bad calls".

 Where was I off? If you have a sec...

It's:

Risk $40 to call to win $(96+40+80) = 40:216 = 5.4 to 1 pot odds.

1/6.4 = 0.15625 = We need 15.625% equity to break-even on a call. IF we can only chop, that means we need to chop double the break-even equity, since we only win half the pot when we chop = 31.25% of the time.

wreckker - Well maybe almost 0% win but u know 'never say never"


OMG the other pro ALSO uses ranges instead of "soul reads" when making decisions on what the opponent has!!! Where's headcheese???

 Oh... I was estimating in my head. Thanks!



I need to improve my estimations.

FS1 I bought a new house and then ran stupid bad for months. I definitely was playing bad too... that never helps... dropped way down and grinded like a mofo. Games are much harder too nowadays. Getting back up to the higher stakes only now. Summer was very good to me though. :) :)

Oh and if you never drop down in stakes you arent doing it right. It's not like Knish says in Rounders, "From time to time everyone goes bust." Going bust should be statistically impossible for proper pros.