Like free money? Leon is -420 vs Nate

I agree with your general point, but there was another one too.

At the time Cerrone was in good form when Nate beat him. I just looked it up. 6 fight win streak, and 17-3 with wins over Charles Oliveira, and Jamie Varner.

I remember that Nate v Cowboy fight quite well because it was on the Brock vs Overeem card.

Sure, but Oliveira sucked back then. We knew Cowboy was really good, but so was Nate. He lost a couple split decisions to top contenders, and also had wins over other contenders too before having mixed results at 170. Nate wasn’t exactly a big underdog in that Cowboy fight.

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Thoughts?

The UFC is stacking the deck a bit (5 rounds co-main) on Nate’s favour hoping his opponent gases but I agree the line is about right at -400 , this line has moved to around -450 / -500 so OP is not alone in his thinking, casual money should come in on Nate the day of the fight.

I think Leon wins the first 3 Rds easily enough times and maybe KOs Diaz so no bet for me.

I’m on Dariush on that card for a medium sized bet. Got in at -155 and the line is moving closer to -140 so I might hit it again if it gets in the -125 area. I find this a much better spot since Beneil can beat Tony in 1,2,3 rounds (he has power and Tony always gets touched) and even submit him if he rocks him early. He can also blanket Tony to a decision if he wins the first 2 rounds convincingly.

I’m on Oliveira also on this card, got in at -115 and happy to see the line moving towards -135. I think Da Bronx is fantastic value at this price, he won’t get submitted by nobody and his striking is so unorthodox I think he is gonna give Chandler fits, he can also submit anyone in his weight class.

I find much better value on these closer odds than going for a 4:1 fave

Exchange neal for magny and thompson for burns and I like it! Obviously switching out those dogs for favorites will drop the payday but I assume it would still be in the 15 or 20 to 1 range.

Like I said earlier in the thread Hermansson at -170 is awfully attractive too. He’s slick enough standing to not get caught flush and once it goes to the ground his GnP is better than Brunson’s. The Joker is a solid play with Leon for a two legger. Won’t pay huge but you can’t go broke taking a profit.

I have a big bet on Amanda Ribas at -170 against Hill.

Ribas hits extremelly hard and should judo throw Hill all night. I can see her TKOing Hill from mount late in the 2nd as Hill is very durable but this is a huge mismatch and they are basically feeding Hill to Ribas after her setback last fight.