The UFC is stacking the deck a bit (5 rounds co-main) on Nate’s favour hoping his opponent gases but I agree the line is about right at -400 , this line has moved to around -450 / -500 so OP is not alone in his thinking, casual money should come in on Nate the day of the fight.
I think Leon wins the first 3 Rds easily enough times and maybe KOs Diaz so no bet for me.
I’m on Dariush on that card for a medium sized bet. Got in at -155 and the line is moving closer to -140 so I might hit it again if it gets in the -125 area. I find this a much better spot since Beneil can beat Tony in 1,2,3 rounds (he has power and Tony always gets touched) and even submit him if he rocks him early. He can also blanket Tony to a decision if he wins the first 2 rounds convincingly.
I’m on Oliveira also on this card, got in at -115 and happy to see the line moving towards -135. I think Da Bronx is fantastic value at this price, he won’t get submitted by nobody and his striking is so unorthodox I think he is gonna give Chandler fits, he can also submit anyone in his weight class.
I find much better value on these closer odds than going for a 4:1 fave