BAD TWIST IF YOU DON'T LIST June 4, 2004 - Fezzik
There isn't a factor in any major sport more important than the baseball starting pitcher. Because of this, any baseball wagers on the 'total' or 'run line' automatically are 'no action' if the listed pitchers do not start.
However, when betting baseball sides, a bettor can choose between 'listing' one or both of the pitchers. He can also alternatively bet 'action' where he has a bet regardless of whether the listed pitcher(s) actually start. When betting action, if there is an 'off' pitcher, the bettor is paid based on the adjusted opening line for the new pitching matchup.
Given this, how should one bet when placing a wager on a baseball side? Conventional wisdom says to analyze the reason why you are making the bet. If you are making it to back one pitcher, or alternatively to fade another, then wouldn't it make sense to list just one pitcher? Additionally, if you are just betting on a team, and the pitchers are not a major factor in your betting decision, shouldn't you just bet 'action'?
As is often the case, conventional wisdom is completely wrong. Baseball betting basic strategy always calls for you to list both pitchers when making any bet. That's because it enables the good shopper to lock in the best line possible.
A good example would be a recent Dodgers/Brewers game where Ben Sheets was struggling with migraines and was eventually scratched. I played the Dodgers plus $1.05, listing both pitchers and locking in the best available line at the time. When Sheets was scratched, my bet was immediately voided.
The adjusted opening line at most shops came up Dodgers minus $1.30, while a few places had the game even lower. However, the shop I bet actually opened the Dodgers at minus $1.40. Sadly, those betting the Dodgers 'action' got stuck with this adjusted opening line. Not surprisingly, the line was immediately readjusted down to Dodgers minus $1.30 one minute later!
Call me a cynic, but I think quite a few books play games with their reopening numbers after a pitching change. They look to see whichever side they are heavy on from action bettors and then sometimes shade their reopening numbers severely to maximize their profits.
Unfortunately, this can result in an action bettor 'getting the business' handed to him. Instead of getting the best line out there, he can wind up with the worst one!
More often than not you simply will get a fair market price at the reopen. But who wants that? It's better to simply list pitchers on your original bet. If you get a pitching scratch then re-shop the game at the adjusted lines. Then make an informed decision later as to how you want to bet the game based on all the new information available, and get a favorable line.
Alternatively, you can do what my friend Bad Cutter does. Just find a night where there may be multiple pitching scratches and go 'dumpster diving' to find losing betting slips that actually 'pushed' due to pitching changes.
Personally, I try to stay out of the garbage cans. However, back in 2002, Station Casinos did put out a mass mailer in Las Vegas that included multiple $25 match-play coupons. I got down and dirty with that promotion.