Lupo Locks: Fedor Vs. Hendo




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Lupo Locks


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Saffeidine -260. I see this fight as the end of the line of the Scott Smith train. Smith has had a nice run of exciting fights and dramatic outcomes, but that takes a toll on a guy and he’s running close to empty IMO. I see this fight as Tarec picking him apart and getting a merciful late stoppage. Smith has incredible power and heart, but I, as a rule usually bet against guys who rely on heart.


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Robbie Lawler +220- I like Kennedy, he’s a total package and a promoter’s dream, but Lawler is showing up to crash the coming out party. I fully expect Robbie to take a beating en route to a shocking stoppage. He’ll look lost and on his way to a loss and then unleash the Filipino Fury His MMA striking is some of the best in the sport and his wrestling is there if he needs it. I see both guys as being top 15 in the division and the +220 jumps out at me as being a bit off when a fighter has Lawler’s skills.


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I’m having issues with Woodley-Daley. I think the odds should be much closer than they are, so if you’re feeling Daley, bet him. He’s coming off of an absolute war with Diaz and has 3 rounds to catch Woodley which is a long time. I also have difficulty betting against someone who has shown poor wrestling in the past against a very good wrestler, but Woodley has looked less than spectacular in the past. Gun to my head, I bet Daley because of the odds. Strikeforce fights are known for being dramatic and I see some ‘holy shit’ drama happening in this one.


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Coenen-125. This isn’t a beauty contest. She’s going to submit Tate. Tate will take her down after getting outclassed by kicks and punch combos and Coenen will secure a sub from the guard.


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Fedor and Hendo is a dream matchups. IMO 2 of the 5 best to ever participate in the sport. Fedor is coming off of 2 losses that dropped his stock off the cliff. People point to the size factor in the Bigfoot fight, but Fedor looked to be a man without a plan who tried to Wang and was unsuccessful and looked like a fish on the ground. This is not the Fedor of 04-06. He’s abandoned what made him great: his striking to clinch to GnP/sub transitions and has become a one dimensional boxer using a boxing style that compliments his former fighting style. He fell in love with his new found KO power when he came to the states and has looked off ever since.


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Hendo is an undersized 40 year old who has also become wholly reliant on something other than what made him great. He’s become a one punch wonder with an Olympic wrestling pedigree that he no longer uses.


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Fedor appears to be fitter, faster and rededicated if you believe his camp and commentators, but I think he’s a guy who no longer has his heart in the sport. God’s will has replaced his desire to eliminate an opponent who wants to return him to a poorer period. Unfortunately, there is no way to change that type of hazardous thinking going into a huge fight. The question is: Is Fedor motivated enough by his own pride to put the brakes on a 3 fight skid and prolong his active fighting career? Are you willing to lay 2 to get one on your answer to that question? I’m not.


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Neither man has ever been KO’d and I don’t see that happening here. The only chance for a stoppage is Fedor rocking Dan and quick subbing him. Otherwise, I have Hendo taking a decision in a lackluster affair, by being able to control Fedor in the cage. I have never bet against Fedor, but Fedor isn’t Fedor anymore. Regardless of the outcome, I’ll be disappointed as a fan of MMA and both guys.


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Thanks Bobby!!!!

 Badda Bingo Bobby you care to put a little side action on Coenen/Tate?

 I think someone is getting KO'd in Fedor/Hendo, most likely Hendo. Also, I think Dan has gotten much better with his wrestling in the last few years. 

jjj2121 -  Badda Bingo Bobby you care to put a little side action on Coenen/Tate?



 Make it $25. I'm not as knowledgable as I should be on women's MMA. Odds are even. Make it straight up?

orcus -  I think someone is getting KO'd in Fedor/Hendo, most likely Hendo. Also, I think Dan has gotten much better with his wrestling in the last few years. 


 Orcus, you are a fair minded fan of MMA. Never let the 'huggers get you down.

Bobby Lupo - 
jjj2121 -  Badda Bingo Bobby you care to put a little side action on Coenen/Tate?



 Make it $25. I'm not as knowledgable as I should be on women's MMA. Odds are even. Make it straight up?


 That's a done deal paesan.

 

fedor will beat hendo rather easily. with an ankle lock.

Decent picks, thanks for sharing. I'm glad there is at least one person out there who isn't underestimating Daley's ability to finish this fight.

I put a bank breaking £5 treble on Saffeiedine Lawler and Daley to win = £55 if they win... not bad for a few quid...

 I agree with the picks (except for Lawler) but all the dogs on this card have heavy hands. Lawler and Smith have both landed KOs out of nowhere before when it looked like they were on their way to a loss. Not a good card to bet big on favourites.

rbl -  I agree with the picks (except for Lawler) but all the dogs on this card have heavy hands. Lawler and Smith have both landed KOs out of nowhere before when it looked like they were on their way to a loss. Not a good card to bet big on favourites.

I think the odds are a little screwy on this whole card. Every Dog (Smith, Daley, Hendo, Lawler) have fight changing 1 shot KO power. Daley had Diaz beat, his confidence may be surging. I think Smith has used up his 9 MMA lives. I'm very high on Robbie L and Kennedy, but these SF shows always seem to deliver wild outcomes and these fights aren't nearly as clear cut as the lines indicate. 

 

Bobby Lupo - 
rbl -  I agree with the picks (except for Lawler) but all the dogs on this card have heavy hands. Lawler and Smith have both landed KOs out of nowhere before when it looked like they were on their way to a loss. Not a good card to bet big on favourites.

I think the odds are a little screwy on this whole card. Every Dog (Smith, Daley, Hendo, Lawler) have fight changing 1 shot KO power. Daley had Diaz beat, his confidence may be surging. I think Smith has used up his 9 MMA lives. I'm very high on Robbie L and Kennedy, but these SF shows always seem to deliver wild outcomes and these fights aren't nearly as clear cut as the lines indicate. 

 


 Daley being such a big dog tells me Joey O is quite comfortable taking a solid stance behind Woodley.  Then again Joey O loves him some wrestlers.

wildebeest - I put a bank breaking £5 treble on Saffeiedine Lawler and Daley to win = £55 if they win... not bad for a few quid...
go for it. I hate parlays, but it's low stakes and can 5 quid is worth it to make the event more enjoyable

 

Chomas - I think Hendo will win.



It sucks someone has to lose this fight.


 If they both weren't so great over the years and so likable I could root for someone. I just hope it's a great fight that we talk about for years to come. Even at 40, I think Dan has the brighter future in MMA if he comes to UFC LHW division. Fedor might have 2 rematches left and that's it.

 ttt

Thinking about £5 on Hendo, Tarec and Daley. Decent odds..

Solid picks Bobby, but I see a knockout in the Fedor-Hendo fight. Most likely Hendo ko'ing Fedor.

Bobby Lupo -
wildebeest - I put a bank breaking £5 treble on Saffeiedine Lawler and Daley to win = £55 if they win... not bad for a few quid...
go for it. I hate parlays, but it's low stakes and can 5 quid is worth it to make the event more enjoyable
 

Yeah I have never had good luck betting on more than one or two fights. Phone Post

orcus -  I think someone is getting KO'd in Fedor/Hendo, most likely Hendo. Also, I think Dan has gotten much better with his wrestling in the last few years. 

disagree his wrestling has been non existant and im suprised he was outwrestled by smaller Jake Shields

weird, kirik posted on this thread yet refused to give it a sticky