My favourite fight on this card by an absolute landslide (and what I think should be the actual main event) has to be Lyoto Machida taking on Ryan Bader.
Lyoto Machida is coming off a tough loss to Jon Jones at UFC 140 last December in a second round submission whereas Ryan Bader is coming off a unanimous decision win over Quinton Jackson in the co-main event at UFC 144 in February.
The first thing that strikes me about this fight is how easy it is to count out Ryan Bader on paper. I remember 2 years ago when the UFC announced that Quinton "Rampage" Jackson would meet Lyoto Machida in the main event of UFC 123. I also remember wondering why the UFC would put Jackson in a fight that I felt was his played against Jackson because of the fact that Lyoto Machidas strong suit is judging distance and counter striking, Jacksons lack of kicking and haymaker swinging style had me believing that Lyoto was going to win in 1 sided fashion... how wrong was I? That day I learned 2 things: 1. Never count out Quinton Jackson again! 2. Lyoto Machidas weakness might be the clinch against the cage. Quinton Jackson defeated Lyoto Machida by split decision and he did this by making Lyoto Machida defend against the takedown against the cage. It was a closer fight when Machida didn't have the circumference of the octagon to work with.
However that was a different fight. Ryan Bader, being the NCAA Division I All American Collegiate wrestler definitely possesses the ability and conditioning to implement this strategy to cause a problem for the former UFC champion.
For Ryan Bader to win this fight, I think he needs to implement the Quinton Jackson gameplan by avoiding the feeling out process early, cutting off the cage and immediately pushing this one up to the fence landing strikes in this clinch, working for singles, doubles and body locks. This is another reason why you should watch this fight, I would love to see Lyotos Blackhouse seasoned BJJ skills which have been vaguely displayed in the octagon if Ryan Bader was actually to get this one down.
Obviously this gameplan is a lot more easily said than done but as for Ryan Bader out striking Lyoto Machida? Unlikely. Even though I expect this fight to definitely take place in the clinch at one point or another during the fight, Lyoto Machida probably shouldn't let Ryan Bader get his hands on him. We've seen Lyoto confuse wrestlers such as Tito Ortiz, Randy Couture and Rashad Evans in the past using distance, movement and counter striking in the past forcing wrestlers to use just their hands because they are unable to grab Lyoto or any of his limbs due to the brilliant judging of distance.
You could say I'm unconfident for Lyoto in the clinch. Why I bring up the clinch so much is that if Ryan Bader proves to have the muscle on Lyoto in the clinch, I could definitely see him upsetting Lyoto Machida. "Who is stronger" is a question that can only be answered when they enter the grappling situations. Lyoto has out muscled Tito Ortiz and Randy Couture in the clinches in their respective fights, if he shows this kind of strength in the clinch helping his escapes, I think Bader is going to be in a lot of trouble.
MY PICK
Without a doubt the most anticipated non-title match up for me so far this year. If Lyoto Machida avoids the cage pummelling by using his patented movement and counter striking I will take Lyoto Machida by unanimous decision or KO/TKO but I am without a doubt definitely not ruling out a unanimous decision win for Ryan Bader if he does get this one to the cage.
Sofa King Cool - Great post. UG needs more of this. <br><br>Also, don't forget Bones beat Machida against the cage. <img src="/images/phone/apple.png" alt="Phone Post" border="0" style="vertical-align:middle;"/>
Bones is strong as hell though, he tossed Bader around like a 155er
Well considering machida beat rampages ass (even he admitted it), idk about all that clinch talk I think machida is gonna fuck bader up, I also think baders win over page was a fluke tho so idk. 
I don't think Bader will be able to taking Lyoto down.
And I think in the clinch Lyoto will be able to take Bader down if he wants using a trip. I also think Lyoto's sumo background will help him if they do end up clinching.
Bader is a tough fighter, hits hard and is strong, but I think Lyoto is a bad matchup for most guys.
Manny Yarbrough GOAT - Holy FRAT
This match up is very simple to predict and doesn't need a FRAT.
Lyoto Machida by whatever the fuck he wants.
Lyoto by brutal skullfucking.
Lyoto is by eating Bader's asshole alive.
Take your pick.
All of your posts are ignorant.
Bader has a good chance in this fight, and I seriously doubt if it goes to the ground, Machida will win by "whatever the fuck he wants."
I think Bader takes this. I hope I'm wrong. 
Lol at Machida beating Rampage ass. Machida fans love the hyperbole. He lands two good shots on Jones before getting choked to death and it means he's Jones biggest threat.
Machida lands 13 shots and stuns Rampage, slightly at that, in the third round after 2 round of being controlled in the clinch and he "beat that ass".
Rashad never attempts any takedowns against machida and Rampage/Tito fail at a few and Machida has "elite level tdd" that no one can crack.
Machida most certainly should be favored in this fight but Bader is a better wrestler than anyone Machida has faced. He could most certainly use the clinch and wrestling game to beat Machida.
mcpeepants232003 - Lol at Machida beating Rampage ass. Machida fans love the hyperbole. He lands two good shots on Jones before getting choked to death and it means he's Jones biggest threat.
Machida lands 13 shots and stuns Rampage, slightly at that, in the third round after 2 round of being controlled in the clinch and he "beat that ass".
Rashad never attempts any takedowns against machida and Rampage/Tito fail at a few and Machida has "elite level tdd" that no one can crack.
Machida most certainly should be favored in this fight but Bader is a better wrestler than anyone Machida has faced. He could most certainly use the clinch and wrestling game to beat Machida.
Bader is not a better mma wrestler than jbj..not even close. and probably not better than rashad either.
Ash..you make very good points about Machida's weakness in the clinch being a key to this matchup. however; there is no shame in being outclinched against the cage by Rampage, who has one of the strongest bases in mma. Plenty of awesome wrestlers like Jones and Rashad have had a hard time getting him down before he gets fatigued after a long battle. and jbj's dominance in the clinch against everybody speaks for itself.
of course, the way bader clowned rampage is reason to give pause to any machida fan
"Machida most certainly should be favored in this fight but Bader is a better wrestler than anyone Machida has faced. He could most certainly use the clinch and wrestling game to beat Machida."
Oh really now. So Bader is a better wrestler than Jones?
Didn't read.
When Bader tries to get anywhere near Machida, he will be KOed. First round, and brutal.
ufc98newb -mcpeepants232003 - Lol at Machida beating Rampage ass. Machida fans love the hyperbole. He lands two good shots on Jones before getting choked to death and it means he's Jones biggest threat.
Machida lands 13 shots and stuns Rampage, slightly at that, in the third round after 2 round of being controlled in the clinch and he "beat that ass".
Rashad never attempts any takedowns against machida and Rampage/Tito fail at a few and Machida has "elite level tdd" that no one can crack.
Machida most certainly should be favored in this fight but Bader is a better wrestler than anyone Machida has faced. He could most certainly use the clinch and wrestling game to beat Machida.
Bader is not a better mma wrestler than jbj..not even close. and probably not better than rashad either.
Definitely not better than Rashad. His setups and entries to takedowns are some of the best in MMA, his guard passing is great and he has good ground and pound.
ufc98newb - Ash..you make very good points about Machida's weakness in the clinch being a key to this matchup. however; there is no shame in being outclinched against the cage by Rampage, who has one of the strongest bases in mma. Plenty of awesome wrestlers like Jones and Rashad have had a hard time getting him down before he gets fatigued after a long battle. and jbj's dominance in the clinch against everybody speaks for itself.
of course, the way bader clowned rampage is reason to give pause to any machida fan
Very true, Rampage is a very strong individual
bump for discussion =)
Honestly, this has the makings of being a good fight, or one of the most boring on the card.