I wonder how big a factor it will be that Matt won't be able to hear Tito
coaching while he's fighting. He'll be able to give him some coaching
between rounds 1 and 2 but that will probably be hectic and confusing
cramming a lot of Matt's split attention on signing and lip reading. I also
want to see if Tito can keep himself from yelling tips into the ring when
the tips can't be heard. It'll be interesting to watch if Tito is yelling
something like "watch out for the arm bar." and Matt gets armbarred.
i wouldn't be surprised if he lost his match. Nichols seems to think he's good on the ground at subs, seems like a bad match up for someone with as lil submission training, and someone who can't hear his coach yelling to watch his positioning or certain attacks as they're coming. It is a definate disadvantage not being able to hear his coach.
Matt got his bell rung in practice, so my guess is Mike Nichols will try and stand with him and more then likely win by TKO or KO.
i am starting to doubt Matt's heart a bit, not because he got caught with a kick and a punch, but because of his "please take care of me, I am hurt" reaction.
Skills-wise, I don't see him getting KO'd on his feet. As a jiu-jitsu guy, Mike Nickels in all probability NEVER trains to keep the fight standing, and without any training you can't stop a wrestler of Matt's level.
Submissions are a real concern. However, by the time Matt and Mike fight, Matt will have a month of Dean Lister's daily training under his belt. It might not be enough to pass Mike's guard, but it should be enough to make sure Matt does not put himself in a triangle and can defend Mike's attempts at armbars from guard.
I see the fight going this way:
* they trade some punches, clinch, Matt gets the takedown;
Matt pounds, Mike defends;
Matt tries to pass, Mike defends;
Matt tries to pound some more, Mike tries to tie him up, they get stood up;
Repeat.
-CF