Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Jon “Bones” Jones

Mauricio “Shogun” Rua vs. Jon “Bones” Jones
My Breakdown

Advantages :
Shogun – Strategic Striking, Jiu-Jitsu, Experience in high profile fights
Bones – Wrestling, Reach, Speed, Unpredictability

This is a very interesting match up that puts Shogun, once considered the future of the LHW division against Bones, the current proclaimed future of the division. Jones' dominant performance at UFC 126 was so impressive, that he was chosen to be nearly a 2:1 favorite for this historic upcoming fight. However, while Jones has plowed through his past opponents with ease, none of his past opponents possessed the threats that Shogun poses towards Jones. Let's take a look at his past opponents and examine the threats that they posed to Jones, which he was able to successfully thwart and overcome with relative ease. This success that Jones has enjoyed has been over two distinct types of fighters: Wrestlers with heavy hands (Jake O'Brian, Matt Hamill, Vladimir Matyushenko, Ryan Bader), and B to B+ level strikers with similar levels of Jiu-Jitsu skills (Andre Gusmao, Stephan Bonnar, Brandon Vera). By beating these types of fighters, he has proven that his superior wrestling skills are able to shut down the games of above average strikers, grapplers, and even elite wrestlers.
Shogun, on the other hand, has fought fighters with many different backgrounds and has had success against virtually all styles. However, the best wrestler that he has faced is probably Kevin Randleman, and while Randleman's wrestling is great, I don't think it is even comparable to Jones'. After seeing Jones easily dispatch of a very tough Ryan Bader, many fans likely assume that a similar fate is in store for Shogun – which explains the betting odds. But all that we really know for certain about Shogun-Jones is that Jones will be able to take the champ down at will. But will he want to? Not only does Shogun possess a black belt in BJJ, but if you remember, he pulled off a textbook omoplata against the dangerous 2x ADCC world champion, Ricardo Arona. Shogun is a beast off of his back and has arguably the most dangerous guard in the LHW division. Jones is a super-talented athlete who has proven to have a formidable top game, but never has he proven this against a black-belt level fighter.
While it's hard to see a weakness in Jones' game, such was similar with Machida before Shogun got his hands on him. At UFC 98, Joe Rogan is known to have proclaimed, “Welcome to the Machida era.” Machida was a complete enigma, and like Rogan, most thought he would enjoy a very long and dominant reign as champion. His aura has since been shattered by both Shogun and Rampage, but fighters literally could not even figure out how to hit Machida before Shogun came along. Shogun being the mentally strong fighter that he is, and coming from the great camp that he does, was able to figure out how to solve the Machida puzzle (something that even Greg Jackson couldn't do) and put an end to his reign.
Shogun possesses an incredibly dangerous and strategic striking game, something that will pose a lot of problems for Jones, especially as he is still relatively young in the striking department. Knowing that Shogun was able to decipher and expose the weaknesses in Machida's seemingly flawless style, it's not such a far stretch to think that he will be able to do the same to Jones. Because of all these factors, I have a very hard time picking Jones and I only see him winning under the following scenario and with the following gameplan.
Shogun is coming off a knee surgery that may hinder his performance capabilities, and it is important for Jones to not have a fully functional and primed Shogun on his hands. Jones needs to batter that knee with kicks and really use his reach and speed to stay on the outside, while coming in for powerful kicks and other power combinations. Shogun can be expected to bring his game to Jones, so Jones needs to be well-prepared with effective counterstriking. Even in this situation, I find it hard to believe that Jones will be able to keep this gameplan up for long and I think he needs to utilize his wild wrestling style to throw Shogun on his head or find some other way to cause Shogun a fight-ending injury. The only other way that I see Jones take the 'W,' is if Shogun tries to wrestle with him and Jones is able to scramble into mount or a crucifix. Otherwise, I don't see Jones having success in advancing position on the ground.
One thing that we can expect, is for a mind-blowing fight in which two of the LHW division's greatest and most athletic fighters battle it out. I'm picking Shogun by 3rd round TKO after having psychologically breaking down Jones from hitting him harder and more than he's ever been hit, and stifling his ground game. Regardless of the outcome, we're in for a historic fight that guarantees to bring fireworks. Can't wait.

Given all this analysis, it's important to note that the number one thing that is reasonable to expect from both these guys is unpredictability.

What do you guys think?

very good analysis, i gotta agree with your pick, though this could very well be the hardest fight of shoguns career Phone Post

Either way, this fight will shock the world.

I pick Shogun but this is a great matchup IMO. Hopefully Anderson fights the winner.

If he couldn't tap forrest, he's not gonna tap a guy with the top control and devestating gnp of Jones.....



http://cdn2.sbnation.com/imported_assets/649222/jones427_medium.jpg



http://en.susumug.com/pride/061021/susumu17.jpg

Vera is a black belt... Phone Post

Nah dude Vera is a brown belt. I checked it up before I made the post

Jones is a good fighter for all intents and purposes, but he's not ready to fight anyone in the top 5. Maybe not even the top 10. And certainly not the fucking champion.

He's going to get mugged like a skinny faggot wearing a suit made of hundred dollar bills. It is not going to be pretty.

MrHenson - 

there is no need for analysis

all you need is a solid MMA background and a little common sense

shogun will beat the living shit out of bones jones and bones has absolutely zero chance of winning this fight

this sht is like fedor vs pat barry
 



It's ironic to hear the words "common sense" followed by "zero chance of winning this fight" in the next sentence. Care to place a wager?

tapout tough guy - ....And certainly not the fucking champion.

ttt

MMATruth, I like your analysis. This is one of the most interesting matchups in the UFC a long time and a very hard one to call. I would add (or reiterate) that Jones is much larger, longer, and more athletic. He has youth on his side and hasn't had the kinds of injuries that Shogun has had. It is true that Shogun has beaten much better fighters of all styles and has a lot more experience but he has also had some poor performances in the UFC (Griffin and Coleman). I would chalk up what happened in his fight against Griffin to injury, however. Not sure how to explain the Coleman (II) fight. We just don't know how Jones will respond when someone finally hits him back. What if Shogun can take him into deeper water, so to speak, by using leg kicks, changing levels, and getting inside that ridiculously long reach?

Evidently, Mr. Henson thinks that his getting Silva-Belfort right on the basis of "common sense" means that he can used the same reasoning (if we would call it that) to get this one right as well. To say that Jones has no chance is to talk stark nonsense. Btw, Jones would kill Griffin. Literally. That's not debatable. But you're right that Jones has never faced or beaten an A-level fighter so we really don't know how well he'll do against that sort of competition. On the other hand, he has mauled all of the good B-level fighters that he has faced. I think that his wrestling will give Shogun a lot of trouble.

Shogun cannot wrestle, and this fight is going to boil down to who can control where the fight takes place.

He will not be able to stop the takedowns of Jon Jones, but Jon Jones can forestall the submission attempts of Shogun with posture and GnP.

The stand up phase is won by Jon Jones due to his reach and his ability to determine where the fight takes place.

His Greco/Judo throws will negate Rua's clinch efforts, we've seen how easy it is to takedown Rua.

Jones has more options than Shogun does and he has a better camp and coaching staff.

Shogun has struggled since coming to the UFC, he lost to Griffin, a bigger grappler with fair striking; he was taken to task by an ancient Mark Coleman.

Yes, he did KO Machida in the rematch, but he couldn't stuff the takedowns, and Machida's no wrestler.

Yes, he did KO Chuck, but seriously, Chuck was but a former shadow of himself and Chuck rarely used his wrestling ability anyway.

Jon Jones represents the New Breed of Mixed Martial Artist, he can fight anywhere at a high level.

His striking, clinch control, takedown ability, ground and submission game are all top notch.

Shogun has his hands full and this is the type of title match that the UFC needs.

Two young and exciting fighters matching their skills and the better fighter should win.

I give Jon Jones the edge, he hasn't been fed the retreads of the UFC or anyone on the decline, while Shogun faced Forrest and got stopped, he then faced off with Coleman, who was away from fighting for 2 years, and struggled for 3 rounds, he beat a wounded and worn Chuck and got 2 title shots against Machida with whom he split victories 1 decision loss to 1 KO victory.

Here's his UFC record:

Win Lyoto Machida KO (Punches) UFC 113 - Machida vs. Shogun 2 5/8/2010 1 3:35
Loss Lyoto Machida Decision (Unanimous) UFC 104 - Machida vs. Shogun 10/24/2009 5 5:00
Win Chuck Liddell TKO (Punches) UFC 97 - Redemption 4/18/2009 1 4:28
Win Mark Coleman TKO (Punches) UFC 93 - Franklin vs. Henderson 1/17/2009 3 4:36
Loss Forrest Griffin Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) UFC 76 - Knockout 9/22/2007 3 4:45


Jon Jones on the other hand has faced the following opposition since entering the UFC:

Win Ryan Bader Submission (Guillotine Choke) UFC 126 - Silva vs. Belfort 2/5/2011 2 4:20
Win Vladimir Matyushenko TKO (Elbows) UFC Live 2 - Jones vs. Matyushenko 8/1/2010 1 1:52
Win Brandon Vera TKO (Elbows and Punches) UFC Live 1 - Vera vs. Jones 3/21/2010 1 3:19
Loss Matt Hamill DQ (Illegal Downward Elbows) UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale 12/5/2009 1 4:14
Win Jake O'Brien Submission (Guillotine Choke) UFC 100 - Lesnar vs. Mir 2 7/11/2009 2 2:43
Win Stephan Bonnar Decision (Unanimous) UFC 94 - St. Pierre vs. Penn 2 1/31/2009 3 5:00
Win Andre Gusmao Decision (Unanimous) UFC 87 - Seek and Destroy 8/9/2008 3 5:00

Hardly a cakewalk with 4 stoppages, 2 decisions and 1 DQ. I give the edge to Jones and I give the momentum to Jones, what I do give Shogun is the experiential edge, which I believe will be thoroughly countered by the Championship cornering that his coaches have.

Jones has been healthier and more active during his tenure and he's fought younger, less battle worn challengers.

I see Jones stopping Shogun inside of 3 rounds, the grind of the takedowns combined with strikes will have Shogun ready to go by then.


It isn't enough to judge a fighter on his past laurels, Shogun indeed was a beast in PRIDE FC, but that was years ago, he's only fought 5 times in the past few years and has lost twice.

Shogun's had surgeries and injuries of late and he isn't fighting in the ring anymore.

This means fewer resets due to rope and corner entanglement.

Shogun has problems with wrestlers, especially wrestlers with submission skills.

Shogun was stopped by Babalu early in his career by submission and late in his career by Forrest by submission.

People speak of his BJJ, but he couldn't submit Coleman.

How is it that Couture could sub Coleman and a younger, seemingly more skilled Rua couldn't?

Yet, Couture never posed a threat to Vera and Vera couldn't last a round with Jones?

You see?

Styles make fights and Jones has the ideal style to beat Shogun, he's an attacking wrestler that uses strikes with his reach and takedown ability, I see Jones winning.

Ghan - 
Cee - The stand up phase is won by Jon Jones due to his reach and his ability to determine where the fight takes place.


Stopped reading there.


When a fighter lacks the ability to stuff takedowns, they're a little more conservative when it comes to striking.

Takedowns score huge points in the UFC.

Other organizations have followed suit, takedowns make the difference in a fight.

Just as King Mo defeated Mousasi, a superior striker both standing and on the ground because Mousasi knew that kicking and punching left him exposed for a shot.

There are hundreds of examples of this, GSP vs. Thiago Alves, Cain Valasquez vs. Cheick Kongo, and many others.

Jones is a superior MMA wrestler with excellent submission skills.

Shogun hasn't faced this combination before and he can't find sparring partners that can match Jones' attributes.

Whereas Jones has an excellent camp full of fighters that can emulate Shogun's striking and BJJ ability.

The fight belongs to Jones.

A lot of this analysis is very sound. I think we can all agree that this will be a very explosive, historic fight. I am picking Jones based on his youth, unique physical qualities, and all the weapons he has at his disposal. Phone Post

I've really enjoyed this thread so far and let me preface this by saying that I like both fighters. I'll probably be rooting for Rua.

I think that style-wise, Jones presents serious problems for Shogun and for anyone else for that matter because he is a huge and agile LHW with long arms, fast hands, and unorthodox striking. It won't be easy for Shogun to close the distance w/out putting himself in danger. I also think that Jones has shown us against wrestlers like Hamill, Vlad, and Bader that he will be able to take the fight to the ground if necessary --score some points via takedowns as mentioned above-- and hold Shogun down and drop short, sharp elbows w/out being caught in a submission. Shogun's best chance is to get inside and mix it up w/ Jones. We know that Shogun can take a lot of punishment but who knows about Jones in the fight goes into the championship rounds?

Shogun's last five fights have yielded a 3-2 record in the UFC, these are his recent fights in the Octagon.


Win Lyoto Machida KO (Punches) UFC 113 - Machida vs. Shogun 2 5/8/2010 1 3:35
Loss Lyoto Machida Decision (Unanimous) UFC 104 - Machida vs. Shogun 10/24/2009 5 5:00
Win Chuck Liddell TKO (Punches) UFC 97 - Redemption 4/18/2009 1 4:28
Win Mark Coleman TKO (Punches) UFC 93 - Franklin vs. Henderson 1/17/2009 3 4:36
Loss Forrest Griffin Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) UFC 76 - Knockout 9/22/2007 3 4:45

That isn't a record filled with tough and punishing opposition, Coleman and Lidell were well past their prime, Forrest was one win away from being K.O.'d by Jardine and Machida while being the freshest of the pack, was still able to take Shogun down easily, and Machida's no wrestler.

Jones' UFC record on the other hand is more frequent, take a look:

Win Ryan Bader Submission (Guillotine Choke) UFC 126 - Silva vs. Belfort 2/5/2011 2 4:20
Win Vladimir Matyushenko TKO (Elbows) UFC Live 2 - Jones vs. Matyushenko 8/1/2010 1 1:52
Win Brandon Vera TKO (Elbows and Punches) UFC Live 1 - Vera vs. Jones 3/21/2010 1 3:19
Loss Matt Hamill DQ (Illegal Downward Elbows) UFC - The Ultimate Fighter 10 Finale 12/5/2009 1 4:14
Win Jake O'Brien Submission (Guillotine Choke) UFC 100 - Lesnar vs. Mir 2 7/11/2009 2 2:43
Win Stephan Bonnar Decision (Unanimous) UFC 94 - St. Pierre vs. Penn 2 1/31/2009 3 5:00
Win Andre Gusmao Decision (Unanimous) UFC 87 - Seek and Destroy 8/9/2008 3 5:00

Going on 3 years and has 1 D.Q. loss, he's shown the skills and he's got the momentum.

Now let's do some math:

Shogun has been in the UFC since 2007 and has mangaged to fight 5 times.

He has a 3-2 record.

Jones has been in the UFC since 2008 and has fought 7 times.

He has a 6-1 record.

Mathematically Jones has a 2:1 ratio in wins and Shogun has a 2:1 ratio in losses.

Jones has fought more in less time and has maintained his health.

Shogun has had a number of injuries that have preented him from being a more active fighter.

Shogun's injuries have got to be considered just as much as his wrestling deficit, he hasn't submitted a single opponent since he's been in the Octagon.

I put my money on shogun in this fight. WAR RUA