I’m going a little more conservative: 1.1 million.
If they line up a great co-main, maybe it does better than that. But the way the UFC is stretching its roster with fights almost every weekend, I think they will let Conor/Chandler carry this PPV and put much lesser-known names on the main card.
And I believe the Conor mystique has largely worn off. He has lost 3 of his last 4 fights, getting stopped in all three losses. And he’ll be 35 by the time the fight happens this summer.
If they stack the card it could do over 2. Get another interesting fight for the co main. Or failing another huge co main a bunch of name(but interesting) fights to round out the main card
If it does anything under a million its a giant failure.
UFC is badly in need of a good ppv since the numbers have been down horribly. I know ESPN doesnt pay them just for ppv buys but overall viewership but I would guess a contract renewal might get them paid less.
My favorite midget wrestling federation is charging 9.99 for their first ppv and they run like a full federation with storylines like they’re just a midget WWE and I will be giving them my money for live content on February 25, 2023.
Over a million but way under two million unless there’s some major TUF drama that goes mainstream, which I wouldn’t put past Dana and Mac to try and manufacture.