mmaranks makes no sense

--- So you're telling me that Vanderlei Silva has less quantifiable accomplishments in the recent past than Jardine? Please tell me you're joking. Vanderlei beat Rampage twice (both times Rampage was a top 5 fighter), Nakamura, Kondo, and Arona. Jardine has beaten nobody anywhere near the top 10. There are MANY examples like this that prove the system needs major improvements."

See above - Now mind you, I place Silva as a top 10 and Jardine is not (by qualitative appraisal)

--- "This is absurd. You're using the system to justify its own existence. How are you supposed to improve the stat system if not by intuition and general MMA knowledge. By your standard, the system never needs tweaking because somehow it's not right to critique it based on our opinions of who should be ranked where. Well let me tell you, when Rory Markham is rated above Hendo and Franklin, THE SYSTEM NEEDS FUCKING TWEAKING."

No, that is not what I said... It can be and should be tweaked, but not simply to make it match opinion. If there is a logical point (like your arguement against 6 fights - which is a valid arguement I'd say) then it could be tweaked.

If it started by giving too much deductions for a loss... it could be tweaked. ETC...

--- "Please, go to BoxRec.com for a computerized ranking that works properly and is constantly being tweaked and improved upon."

Interesting that you say this... This system is indeed based on Boxrec. it may have some differences, I have not created it (Gary MacKinnon has) I have merely had these very conversations, that we are having, with him already... at great length.

Diego

--- "Ah gotcha. So i would assume Kawajiri will be ranked over Yves next month then? Or would Yves still be ranked above Kawajiri if he wins his fight vs Hominick?"

Not sure... It would seem so. The Laurinitus fight would fall off and Hansen is currently 33. This will change Kawajiri's numbers drastically.

Granted, Hominick is 27, so that will certainly help Yves numbers also

MMARanks is pretty good. If you have a better system maybe you should create one yourself.

Though they should put Sakuraba somewhere in the LHW, since that's where he's fighting.

So Jardine's win over Mike fucking Whitehead catapults him up the charts to #4 and you don't think the system needs improvement?

--- "LOL @ Vera being ranked higher than Overeem."

???

Overeem is 116... Vera is 244

"See above - Now mind you, I place Silva as a top 10 and Jardine is not (by qualitative appraisal)"

But you see, the development of a statistical system has to be based on qualitative appraisal. There has to be a "goal" a way of testing the system and subsequent improvements upon it. You can't justify the results the system spits out just by saying "it's quantitative".

"No, that is not what I said... It can be and should be tweaked, but not simply to make it match opinion. If there is a logical point (like your arguement against 6 fights - which is a valid arguement I'd say) then it could be tweaked."

Well if you want more suggestions, I'd say you should check out BoxRec's system, which is publicly available. Everyone starts with a base amount of points. When you win, you gain an amount of points based on how much higher or lower your opponent's point total was compared to yours, and vice versa when you lose. You also lose points for inactivity. They also have the added concept of a "cut" which is a cap on how many points you can accrue based on your best opponent, which is designed to prevent guys from getting high in the rankings by beating an endless stream of scrubs in a short time.

This is what it looked like in Jan.

Rua, Mauricio (203)
Liddell, Chuck (205)
Nogueira, Rogerio (205)
Sobral, Renato (205)
Lambert, Jason (205)
Arona, Ricardo (203)
Nest, Sam (205)
Griffin, Forrest (204)
Smith, Scott (204)
Silva, Wanderlei (205)
Fioravanti, Luigi (205)
Jardine, Keith (225)

The win for Jardine moved him up 8 spots (he got a win, but also lost a lesser win which was 7 fights ago)

Example of how this played out...  Whitehead is 345, whereas AanArsndale is 888.  So Jardine benefitted more from his win over Witehead than Babalu did over VanArnsdale.

Plus Babalu loses a win over Horn (rated 46, since it is now 7 fights ago)...  whereas Jardine loses his win over George Allen (rated 1577).  So the net gain on points for Jardine is significant compared to Bablu's

Tomato...

mmaranks is based on boxrec, was inspired by boxrec and works the same way as boxrec

Fighters get a base value of 1000 that is modified based on wins and losses factoring the value of the opponent. Fighters are linked for 6 fights (or 3 years), so as the opponents value slides up or down over that periof, the fighters value is modified.

Now, there may be different modifiers, cut-offs, etc. but boxrec is the model for mmaranks.

That's the problem with the 6 fight system. Things can go nuts off of 1 fight, and not even necessarily a particularly significant fight.

Your arguement in favor of boxrec, actually supports mmaranks.

I am sure that there are qualitive differences that experts would say, compared the actual quantitative values at boxrec.

--- "That's the problem with the 6 fight system. Things can go nuts off of 1 fight, and not even necessarily a particularly significant fight."

I realize the significance of this last point after pointing out the Jardine scenario.

There is probably a degrading process that would work best rather than a sudden drop of fight 7. Maybe more fights should be considered... not sure, but I like the concept of the system (as I said it follows the boxrec process in principle)

MMA ranks is good in theory...

but the rankings are some of the most horrible I've seen.

even MMA newbies can make better rankings than those.

The BoxRec rankings are not perfect. There are anomalies. They are, however, the best computerized rankings I've ever seen.

If you're trying to emulate that system then you're on the right track, but I think you need to go farther with it. Every fight should count, in theory. It's just that the effects of old fights should just be so extremely diluted that it's as if they don't. Additionally, using a point system and actually making the buildup (and dropoff) in a fighter's point total transparent would go a long way. I'm not sure what the overhead on something like this would be, but I'm wondering how hard it would be for you to whip up some rankings with a super simplified verison of the BoxRec system:

Every fighter starts with 1,000 points.

After a bout where fighter A beats fighter B:

Fighter A gets 70+(Bpts-Apts * 0.138)

Fighter B loses 70-(Apts-Bpts * 0.138)

Every day, every fighter who doesn't fight loses 0.005% of his points. For a layoff of 1 year, a fighter loses an additional lump sum of 90 points.

There are more advanced features of the system, like the "cut" and additional paramters for when a fighter moves up or down in weight, but those are the most basic and important features.

I have been dying to see what kind of rankings this method produces when used on the FCFighter.com database (which seems to be the most complete) as opposed to the BoxRec database.

A big problem that the mmaranks system has faced is actual programming savvy (to code the formula to handle various modifiers, degrading factors, etc)

I think even the mmaranks creator will say that it could be improved.

I have programming savvy. I'd be willing to write a little code. To be honest I'd love to do something like this myself, the major obstacle is that you need access to a database of fights, like FCF's, or you need to build your own. That's the part that throws me.

"I agree... I feel that a rating (like a QB rating in football) can be a tool to help the "experts" evaluate fighters and concoct a "ranking". But ranking should be based on expert opinion and qualitative evaluation. The quantification process is something separate."

I would have no problem with this either, but as it stands, is mma any closer to having any recognized ranking standard/system? Without a mmawa (mma writers association), just how can such a ranking be accomplished by experts?

It seems to me that mmaranks may be furthest along. If that's the case, why couldn't a BCS type formula be utilized to determine fighter rankings?

I shall try to tackle the questions.....

Keep them coming.

You know I support what you guys are trying to do over there, but explain this to me.
Spencer Fisher was #10 or #11 at 170. Then after an update (over a period of time where he hadn't fought) he completely disappears from the top 20. How does something like this occur? It really hurts the legitimacy of your rankings.


A very simple answer to this one.

You are wrong about Fisher not fighting.... he fought Randy Hauer at 155 pounds on February 17th.

The LW list was updated before then, and the WW list was updated after then. This is the reason that you don't see him on either list at the moment.

Next question.

They really need to hone their statistical method and work towards dropping the fan voting portion entirely. Every time I mention improvements to the statistical rankings, though, I am met with a stone wall. I don't know if they're too lazy to make any significant change or if they really think the method they have right now is fine, but it's obvious to me that it needs work.

What you need to understand is, that I have been "honing" the method since UFC 3.

I've entered tens of thousands of fights since, (before there were even Sherdog or FCFighter databases), so I wouldn't chalk it up to laziness.

Maybe what you should consider, is that while you have some conceptual ideas, when put into place, you just might find that what you thought would work, doesn't work.

I understamd every point you have tried to make about where and why some tweaking might produce what you think it should. I've heard them all before. Will you beliveve me if I tell you that some of your ideas HAVE been tried, and simply didn't work?

You may find that in all your effort to "correct" one troubling scenario, that you just create another.

I have tried counting more fights, longer time periods, shorter time periods, not counting draws, counting draws, draws hurting the higher ranked guy while helping the lower guy, modifications to the point awards for split decisions....

The way the stats work now, is a result of looking at all the scenarios that have happened over the last 12 years, and honing it towards something that can be fair to fighters of all payscales.

Also keep in mind that we may want to get two different things from a stat rank. You seem to want every fight within a certain timeframe to count. I want a "What have you done lately?" aspect to be at the forefront. I despise stupid mismatches. I cringe at the thought of Fedor vs. Zuluzinho. If a very successful fighter goes on some ridiculous spree of fighting unworthy opponents, then I WANT his rank to suffer. I like that part and you don't. Therein lies a difference between us.

Now, as you can see, a "keeping busy" fight or two doesn't hurt that much. Fedor has 2 real softies on his profile in Ogawa and Zuluzinho, but he is still #1 statistically.

Now if I can start by typing in Keith Hackney over Emmanuel Yarborough 12 years ago, and the system has mathematically determined guys like Fedor, Gomi, Yamamoto, Hughes and Liddell to be at the top today, then either my computer knows how to watch PPVs, or the system is doing a pretty good job of identifying who is doing well.

Sure there are fighters in certain positions that make you raise an eyebrow. But I say that's good!

FWIW, back in the day, I was able to identify guys like Josh Barnett, Tim Sylvia, Dave Menne, etc long before many others knew who they were.

When I first started to publish my calculations on the web, I remember getting flooded with the question, "Who the hell is Tim Sylvia?".

He got a deserved chance to shine, and made good on it. So here's hoping that all the guys that currently make you scratch your head, end up getting a chance.

That's the underlying point to the stat ranks, really.... to hopefully one day provide a legitimate reference of who deserves to be competing at certain levels.

In professional tennis, statistically ranking the facts dertermines who gets into the premiere events and who doesn't.

The stats say Jason Lambert should have been tested in the UFC a while ago, while Ken Shamrock was about the last person who deserved to be fighting Tito for the title.

We should have already got the chance to see Rory Markham, Thales Leite, Jason Black, Jake Shields, Roger Huerta and others on a big stage. When given the chance, then the stat ranks can again re-calcualte and see where the chips fall.

When fighters get their chance, some will strive, (Barnett, Menne, Sylvia, St. Pierre) and keep their high standing. Some will fail, (Chalangov, Neer), and suffer an appropriate drop.

The best thing that could ever happen to this stat rank, is if promoters would adhere to it a little more closely for matchmaking purposes. Then real-life tests to its results would spark future updates. Those future updates would start to look a lot like publiic opinion after a while.

When the last time you heard someone dispute the tennis, golf or auto racing rankings? They don't because the stats are used to determine who competes against who in the future. The process repeats itself over and over, and a legit sport is born.

There really needs to be some human element in this system, I think. I have suggested writers.
Let's say someone like Vanderlai injures his hand, and is never the same. Thus, he goes on to lose his next 4 fights.

It shouldn't impact Arona's victory--Vanderlai was certainly great at the time of Arona's victory.

Yes. These intangibles are the reason I started to combine votes with stats.

Both stats and votes have shortcomings.

Voters all have some level of bias, no matter if they are fans, fighters, broadcasters or reporters. The different exposure to fights and fighters that people have will do that. If Phil Baroni had a debatable spot somewhere on a list, would he get a fair shake on a vote from Matt Lindland, or Michael DiSanto whom Phil caused problems for?

On the other side of the coin, wouldn't fighters who train with Baroni give him an extra boost?

Sherdog sponsors Quinton Jackson. FCFighter sponsors a crapload of fighters too. Are they going to be fair?

What if a fighter was rude or extra friendly to a reporter? Wouldn't that create some bias during vote time?

Fans, as fickle as some may be, might almost be the best option. The person who sits at home and watches fights, with no personal interaction with any of the fighters, may have the clearest head when it comes to assesment, but it's certainly no guarantee.

The stats, of coarse, don't always tell the whole story either. Belfort beat Couture, Okami beat Anderson Silva, etc, etc.

The combining of the two, I think, creates a happy median. You need good numbers AND the confirming support from the human element to be at the top.

Voters can go ga-ga over Genki Sudo or Frank Mir or Semmy Schilt or Sean Sherk, but unless they rack up some good wins, they'll never get too high.

Markham, Kikuchi, Black, Machida and Huerta can put up good credentials "on paper", but unless the voters support the numbers, then they don't get too high either.

Number calculations adjust human bias.

Human assesment adjusts intangibles not found in the numbers.

When the stats and the humans agree that someone is good, then we have our top fighters.

This format is essentially the BCS system. The BCS meets with disputes as well, but it's probably the best way to sort out entities that don't benefit from a lot of cross-over competition.

Much like college football, MMA has a lot of orgs, each mostly competing in their own circuit, so if someone has the desire to try to mesh them all together for a pecking order, then this is about the best way to tackle it.