Murder rate 5 times higher without modern medicine

Murder rates would be up to five times higher than they are but for medical developments over the past 40 years.

According to new research, doctors are saving the lives of thousands of victims of attack who four decades ago would have died and become murder statistics.

Although the study is based on US data, the researchers say the principle applies to other countries too: “There is reason to expect a similar trend overall in Britain,” said Dr Anthony Harris, the lead author of the study.

In the research he and a team from Massachusetts University and Harvard Medical School found that technological developments had helped to significantly depress today’s murder rates, converting homicides into aggravated assaults.

“Without this technology, we estimate there would be no less than 50 000 and as many as 115000 homicides annually instead of an actual 15 000 to 20000,” they say in a report of the study in the journal Homicide Studies (2002;6:128-66).

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That's a hard pill to swallow.

Chicago would be empty by now. 

Seems to mean the murder rate per 100,000 being roughly back at what it was in the 1960s isn’t as positive as it sounds.

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Does the study account for population growth in the last 40 years?

I'm just a bear but this sounds like a very big link humans often seem to forget about. Even with war, in the old days so many lives were lost purely due to defencies in medical care and knowledge.

Interesting point.

A few years ago I remember reading that the average pistol gunshot wound victim surprisingly has around a 70% chance of survival, but that drops to around 15% if shot by a rifle.

A little over a century ago, if you got knicked by a round in the Civil War, you may as well slit your wrists on the battlefield…

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Always amazes me when 70ppl get shot in Chicago any given weekend and only 6-7 die....those ER Drs are magicians. 

Very interesting, good post op

Oh damn

Smilin like Rashad -

Always amazes me when 70ppl get shot in Chicago any given weekend and only 6-7 die....those ER Drs are magicians. 

So if you have a chicago hospital on your resume as an er surgeon that is saying "I've got a shit ton of experience with gunshot victims"?

Happiness Bunny -
Smilin like Rashad -

Always amazes me when 70ppl get shot in Chicago any given weekend and only 6-7 die....those ER Drs are magicians. 

So if you have a chicago hospital on your resume as an er surgeon that is saying "I've got a shit ton of experience with gunshot victims"?

"I've got a shit ton of experience with gunshot victims that lived"

Fixed it for ya

No where is this more true than Baltimore.

Small city where EMS is split between Johns Hopkins and Maryland Shock Trauma.

Imaging what the death rate would be anywhere else.

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Yeah, Boston was only able to keep it’s homicide rates so low because we’ve got so many great hospitals so strategically placed near the trouble spots. Homeless junkies get better treatment than heads of state a few decades ago.

banco - Seems to mean the murder rate per 100,000 being roughly back at what it was in the 1960s isn't as positive as it sounds.

Yeah pretty frightening when you look at it that way

I am very very suspicious of this conclusion given that

A. This references an 18 year old study with no follow up, no replication, etc.

B. All violence has been significantly trending downwards for decades.

C. It goes off on a weird gun control tangent at the end with no reference to data/studies whatsoever.

Pretty sure this is garbage.

& I’ll drop this here for points of reference: http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

BarkLikeADog - I am very very suspicious of this conclusion given that

A. This references an 18 year old study with no follow up, no replication, etc.

B. All violence has been significantly trending downwards for decades.

C. It goes off on a weird gun control tangent at the end with no reference to data/studies whatsoever.

Pretty sure this is garbage.

& I’ll drop this here for points of reference: http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

Violence trending downwards.  I’ve never felt safer besides any other time in my life.

The numbers don’t lie.

I remember reading something similar about battlefield medicine.

Supposedly, US casualties in Iraq and Afghanistan would have been comparable to Vietnam if not for this.

BarkLikeADog - I am very very suspicious of this conclusion given that

A. This references an 18 year old study with no follow up, no replication, etc.

B. All violence has been significantly trending downwards for decades.

C. It goes off on a weird gun control tangent at the end with no reference to data/studies whatsoever.

Pretty sure this is garbage.

& I’ll drop this here for points of reference: http://www.disastercenter.com/crime/uscrime.htm

I’ve only glanced at it but according to that murder in 1960 was 5.1 per 100,000 and aggravated assault was 86.1

In 2018 murder was 5.0 per 100 k and aggravated assault 246 per 100 k which seems (at least at first blush) to be consistent with their theory.