My breakdowns for 196...not nate/conor

Two TUF alumni from different seasons. Julian Erosa "Juicy J"/THat pimp japense dude from TUF Japan, Teruto Ishihara "Yashabo"
Juicy J coming off a win over Marcin seems to have a good understanding of distance, but his timing just isnt there yet.
He looked good in his fights in the house, until he fought Arteim who basically justwalked him down and KOd
Pimp Yashabo on the other hand is coming off a draw against the former Sengoku Lightweight champ, Mizuto Hirota. He also looked pretty solid in the house and won most
of his fights
because his striking dominance.
In this fight I see the longer Juicy J frustrqating and countering Yashabo throughout the fight. Could see Juicy get Ishihara on his back from some overextening.
I think Ishiharas only chance is working on cutting the cage off and agressively throwing hard shots in numbers.
If he moves, try to make him move backwards and not side to side.
Pimp T can do that by keeping Juicy squared up and using wider shots as he starts to circle,
But i think Juicy is long enough and moves well enough to stay away from thos power shots and land his own clean shots from range.
Juicy by decision or possibly a early TKO

Sanchez/Miller.....fight pass prelims? Headlining bellator or wsof easily. Both past their primes for sure,
but put on great scraps when not being completed dominated
Miller is the more calculated striker,wrestler and submission artist and sets a solid pace.
Sanchez is more of a "make you feel my presence" fighter. Waining his way in to get his shots off and taking a lot of damage doing it
I see miller winning a scrappy decision and piecing sanchez up at range when given the opportunities,
but these fuckers are going to going hard for 15 minutes and there will be blood
Miller

Erik Silva vs Nordine Taleb
Havent really been impressed with Nordine at all.....but havent really been impressed with Erik Silva in a long time.
At first it just seemed like the kid had a discipline problem.
THen he gets in a scrap with Fitch and shows the tank...then he almost kills Brown, but fades and gets violently beat down for the remainder of the fight.
Gets a choke on old Kos then looks
like a malnourished boy against Neil Magny. No tank what so ever in that fight either. No discipline...no roids.....
Unless we see a completely different Erik Silva, Nordine might actually pull off an upset here
He was on a three fight win streak against meh competition then got guillotined by Warley Avles, who is no slouch.
I think if he can make it past the first three minutes, he wins a decision against this impostor

Brandon Thatch vs Siyar Bahadurzada......Siyar been out for a while....Thatch hasnt won in a while.......this fight could be the last for either guy.
And I only see Thatch winning if he can land a clean counter while being pressured
because thats whats going to happen when fighting this Afghan fucker. Siyar is a beast who fights hard and applies pressure with his heavy fists.
His weakness has been exposed by high level grapplers, which thatch is not
but thatch will hold a nice height advantage, and will have the kicking advantage for sure.
Those knees he throws are violent as fuck and remind me of some ubereem shots. THat could be the real equalizer here. When they end up in the clinch
whoever wins htose exchanges will win the fight. If Thatch can get his knees off, he will really hurt Siyar. If Siyar can push him against the fence,
expect some hard dirty boxing and take downs. Thatch off his back with the aggressive Siyar in top control
is jut not a good look. Hard pick imo......Im going SRC classics here and picking the dirty Afghan.
THatch obviously has a chance, but its all about landing that one strike. Siyar just has more ways to win and the aggression to make it happen

Amanda Nunes vs that russian chick Valentina Schavenko......Nunes is dangerous as fuck early. We've seen it inside and outside the UFC against high level fighters.
She has very heavy hands and isnt afraid to exchange with anyone. If you can whether her storm
and put her on her back, your chances of winning are pretty decent. I havent seen enough of BULLET the Russian chick,
but i know she does have a loss to Liz Carmouche via retirement. Not sure of those circumstances, but if she just quit,
then I dont see her holding upp to the pressure Nunes will bring to her
and if she does it will be do to her refined striking just being that much better and picking Nunes apart.
But im picking nunes by KO and everyone screaming for her to get a title shot.

Corey anderson vs TOm Lawlor....Anderson coming off two wins after a slobberknocker loss against Villante.
He's a high level wrestler that is steady rounding out his kickboxing and submission games. I like his skill set, but I dont see anything really special yet
Tom Lawlor has always had trouble with heavier grapplers unless he caught them in a guillotine(CB) but his best bet here is simply catching Anderson with a KO punch
or hailmary sub, because he is not going to win a decision here. Anderson is going ot outwork him in every aspect of the game
besides the promotion. Corey by dec or late submission

Latifi vs Villanite...both incosestinet wrestlers who like to throw leather and set a pace.
Latifis wrestling will cancel out anything Villante tries to make happen on the ground,
and Gian likes to throw hands so I see this fight either going to the ground with Latifi on top banging away or Villante eventually keeping it standing and them banging it out. Vilante does have a height and reach advantage he'll be able to take advantage of, but only if he can get Latifi tired.
The problem Villante has, is he is always there to get hit and Latifi hits like a fucking gorilla.
I can see VIllante winning a disgusting sloppy fight, but I think its more likely he gets tko'd in some violent fashion

Holm vs Tate....now Im pretty sure I wont be able to score this one too well if there is a lot of grappling exchanges or
if Tates back is to the camera most of the time, but I'd give Holly the advantage here.
Her timing and spacing are top notch and Miesha is only now starting to get those fundamentals down in her stand up game.
Granted Tate will push forward and try to grind Holm in every way possible, Holly's footwork just wont let her.
Now, if she can keep Holm in front of her and use some decent defense, I can see her eventually getting a TD, but not sure what she can do from there.
Off her back, Holly obviously isnt going to be very offensive,
so there is some chance we might see Tate catch something there,
but Holly seems so calm in there and can probably work her way out of any situation presented by Tate. Technically she is very smart,
but how will she do with Miesha on top of her throwing elbows and punches while passing her guard? Will she be able to recognize the choke setups?
Probably. I think this goes the full 5 and Tate ends up pretty battered. People will call for a Tate/Ronda 3 for some reason also.