NBER: US officially in recession

without 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth...

The US economy is officially in recession

The National Bureau of Economic Research said Monday that the COVID-19 crisis has officially launched the U.S. economy into a recession, thus ending the longest economic expansion on record.

The NBER’s business cycle dating committee calls recessions based on broad checks on employment and production activity. 

The committee said that it had determined that economic activity had peaked in February, citing sharp drops in employment and personal consumption following that month. The recession declaration ended the 128-month economic expansion that began in June 2009, which eclipsed the 1990s recovery as the longest on record.

When the NBER declares a “peak,” it essentially marks the beginning of a period of “significant decline.”

Since the first cases of Coronavirus took form in the United States, over 42 million Americans have lost their jobs and turned to unemployment benefits. Stay-at-home measures and businesses closures have halted economic activity on an unprecedented scale.

The NBER said official data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed that the labor market peaked in February. On production, GDP figures have yet to be published for the quarter covering the brunt of the pandemic. But the NBER said monthly readings on real personal consumption measures appeared to confirm that the U.S. consumer - a key driver of the economy - also peaked in February.

A recession is generally perceived to be two consecutive quarters of negative growth in U.S. production, measured as real GDP. 

But the NBER has other criteria that can constitute a recession, which is particularly applicable to the COVID-19 crisis given the speed of the economic downturn. The committee looks for a “significant decline in economic activity” across several economic indicators, which covers not just GDP but factors like real income and employment, as well as retail and manufacturing sales.

The NBER declares a “trough” when economic activity appears to hit a bottom, which is also reported on a lag.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-economy-officially-in-recession-nber-165226139.html

"The NBER defines a recession as “a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months”

How many months have we been in a decline?

Wait the 4T the government approved the Fed injecting into wallstreet/banks was just a bandaid for the elite and didn't actuallt save us? No way!

Jack Carter - "The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months"

How many months have we been in a decline?

that’s the general definition of a recession, but the NBER is the organization that officially calls it and can do so whenever it believes the US to be in one.  the last 2 recessions were called without 2 quarters of declining growth.

Jack Carter - "The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months"

How many months have we been in a decline?

Not 6.

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1269976902665752576?s=21

The Closed Guard -
Jack Carter - "The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months"

How many months have we been in a decline?

Not 6.

it doesn’t matter.

EFM - 
Jack Carter - "The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months"

How many months have we been in a decline?

that’s the general definition of a recession, but the NBER is the organization that officially calls it and can do so whenever it believes the US to be in one.  the last 2 recessions were called without 2 quarters of declining growth.

"December, 2007: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) retrospectively declares that the economic downturn, which was later dubbed the "Great Recession," began at the end of 2007, after two consecutive quarters of declining economic growth"

the_shrike -

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1269976902665752576?s=21

Is he talking about the #fakenews numbers he bragged about while intentionally ignoring the actual memo right in the report that said there was a 3% error not in his political favor? 

The one that once adjusted for accuracy showed more people unemployed in May than prior? 

Of course facts don't matter, and he wants to ONLY focus on the jobs report and not the rest of what's going on. 

https://twitter.com/ap/status/1270043416227872774?s=21

lol…this is awesome. Fuck Trump!

~ The Left!

FETT_Lay'n'PrayNINJA -
the_shrike -

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1269976902665752576?s=21

Is he talking about the #fakenews numbers he bragged about while intentionally ignoring the actual memo right in the report that said there was a 3% error not in his political favor? 

The one that once adjusted for accuracy showed more people unemployed in May than prior? 

Of course facts don't matter, and he wants to ONLY focus on the jobs report and not the rest of what's going on. 

https://twitter.com/realdonaldtrump/status/1269753231355371521?s=21

2 Likes

Yep...trump mentioned this...thankfully prior to the bs, the economy and USA overall were running full tilt, so the second the democratic governors stop holding their states hostage the economy will take off to new historic greatness with incredible swiftness

Jack Carter -
EFM - 
Jack Carter - "The NBER defines a recession as "a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than two quarters which is 6 months"

How many months have we been in a decline?

that’s the general definition of a recession, but the NBER is the organization that officially calls it and can do so whenever it believes the US to be in one.  the last 2 recessions were called without 2 quarters of declining growth.

"December, 2007: The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) retrospectively declares that the economic downturn, which was later dubbed the “Great Recession,” began at the end of 2007, after two consecutive quarters of declining economic growth"

i don’t believe that’s accurate.

https://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions_faq.html

Looks like I am gonna have to call the end of this one too. 

 

Mark

1 Like
Mark1 -

Looks like I am gonna have to call the end of this one too. 

 

Mark

well, let’s hear it.  i’m guessing november '21.

Mark1 -

Looks like I am gonna have to call the end of this one too. 

 

Mark

Will you also fill is in on when Tesla will stop being a real company??

Does the DOW usually jump 5000+ points in a few weeks during a recession ? I never paid attention when I was in a government pension plan..

RhinoHog -

Does the DOW usually jump 5000+ points in a few weeks during a recession ? I never paid attention when I was in a government pension plan..

Stock market returns during recessions aren't always bad or even negative.

The Dow Jones isnt a representation of the economy, it's just 30 stocks and includes some of the biggest stocks on the market including many that have been doing quite well.