OG derivatives trader. AMA on the market

Thanks! Gibson’s is on me next time you are in Chcago.

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Bullson, I know I can be a dick on here, but you defiantly understand the markets and it’s a breath of fresh air!

Thank you.

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I totally agree with your thoughts. Any rip needs to be sold. They are still selling to retail here. We my not bottom for another 12 months…sometime in 2023

What if some hedges or even worse Oversees Banks blow up? (there is unseen risks in these markets, just look at the Yen and the Strong dollar)

QT is going to be rough. Six months from now the banks are going to be bitching and moaning

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A quote from a financial newsletter that I subscribe to:

“As we’ve said many times before, unwinding high inflation is likely to be a much longer, more painful process than most people envision… The only time we’ve ever seen it was in the 1970s… and that ended with interest rates at 20%… and a deep recession…”

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I say good.

The investment firms passive investing methods is partly to blame. The stock market is broke.

Most products are are all duplicates of each other…except for levered and inverse funds and volatility products that you can actually use to change the delta of your portfolio very quickly.

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Someone has been listening to Michael Green! @bullson

Interesting article:

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Damn it! I wish I would’ve taken this trade now.

I wouldve closed out the short puts and just left with long call @$40 to make money on by June 24th.

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I’m taking a flyer on TWTR.

This is pure speculation. I have had some success with buyouts before. Quite common for the stock to pull back significantly at some point during the process.

Diagonal spread - bought June 38 calls and selling august and September 50 calls. Delta neutral

Can you explain how you would manage the $50 call leg if it goes parabolic in July-August?

Here’s my trade for the day on LABD:
Sell the $61 May 20th Put and the $65 call. Buy the jun 24th $80 Call.

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We know the price is 54.20, so I’m capped there unless someone else comes in and offer more, which I feel is unlikely.

The biggest risk right now is the stock going and staying below 38 in June. That’s my main concern. If I have to roll that strike I may.

The stock almost certainly won’t trade near 54.20 until the deal is close to being done. Just how these things generally work so I’m not terribly worried about going through that strike.

In this case, I don’t see Musk backing out of the deal, it’s too high profile. Much more likely he’s negotiating a better price (for him). Between the news they manufactured user data, the very real possibility the scam account percentage is wrong, the addition of very high profile investors to his deal, and the lack of other serious counteroffers, I think the odds are the price drops a bit. 50 would obviously be the tits.

If something does happen which lifts the upper bound beyond 54.20, I should be able to manage the delta through stock purchases in a pinch. Again, unlikely I believe.

Do you have any good anecdotes about having to cover in a scramble?

I agree 100%.

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Lol. Scroll up near the beginning for the story about the long term capital rate cut that buried me the day before expiration, and the expiration day saving grace. On a percent of net worth basis the absolute worse and best two days ever.

Please never again

Luck favors the prepared mind, but sometimes it’s better to be lucky than good

You have to stay calm and figure out a way to add or remove delta and gamma and time and keep dodging.

Dont get yourself trapped.

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Keep making good decisions. You’re going to lose money, that’s part of the game.

Fridays market threw me for a loop. It hadn’t done that on a Friday since the Ukraine invasion. I had a plan in case it did that, I just wasnt expecting it.