OG derivatives trader. AMA on the market

Two trade ideas for today: sell UNG ATM puts at this Friday expiration. There is a natural gas oil divergence.

On the VIX, sell the Jun 15 - 32.5 Puts and sell the 35/40 Vertical Call spread for June 22nd.

Just stick with Italian bonds…I guess.

Market looks oversold to me.


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I’m not a believer in crypto. It’s just another risk asset to me, as we have discussed in here before.

However, I am going to be buying BTC futures when they drop below 18500.

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I feel the same way. But if I see bitcoin near 10k I may bite. More specifically Ethereum since it seems to triple BTC performance.

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What is the price for ETH to fall that you are looking for?

I think I will go hangout in the FAZ while the central bankers are trying to get their shit togethor.

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I would wait for divergences in the RSI with the closing prices on the weekly before I would consider a swing. Sure you might not time the bottom but at the same time you’re not trying to time a bottom. That could give out.

Even more so I would like at a quarterly chart for see the divergence at the last top to see if it is a true top to the market

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Not sure maybe under 500. Maybe it never goes down that far. Who knows. It’s tied so closely to BTC so I might just buy wherever it is in relation to BTC if it dropped to 10k.

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The btc play is tied specifically to the impending failure of the various crypto platforms which is spilling over into Hedge funds. There will be forced liquidation at 18500. Blood in the water has sharks circling. They will overshoot that level and I will be buying into it

ETH is actually the driver of this problem as I understand it. The staked ETH has depegged. So I will be holding off on buying it for now.


BTC is in play


I predict a massive liquidation sale of crypto mining equipment coming soon.

I think its a good thing. Lets get chips into cars and consumer goods where they belong.

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Does anyone have an interpretation or, better yet, a reasonable understanding, of what the BoJ is doing?

I keep thinking that they just want to see the world burn.

Arent they just trying to control their 10 yr. yield under .25%.? The markets natural rate is pushing it up so they have to keep buying it up with their own yen.

And if they are busy buying up their own bonds, they may need to sell US Treasuries off their balance sheet.

Thats why FAZ until the Central Bankers get their shit together. The ECB is trying to control fragmentation of rates.

I know what they are trying to do. Protect the .25 ceiling in their 10y. I want to know why they think it will work.

IF $VET holds right here, I think we see $22.00 or higher after this coming ER call!

I will be looking to add to my calls tomorrow. Maybe sept $22.00.

Russia is shutting down gas to Germany and the rest of EU and the Balkins. Germany is in need to switch to coal, but Coal supply is very low as well.

Nat GAS is now about $40.00 per BTU in Germany…WOW!

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LOL. That is nuts

They have to try to do something to get their people to start fucking again.

They’ve gone downhill for the last 30 years. I am rooting for them. This is the country that gave us some of the best cars, electronics, food, Pride FC.etc.

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I just bought Sept 16 $125 Puts on AAPL. I paid an average of about $4.02. Purely a technical analysis trade. It is at the high end of a downward trend.