OG doc. AMA on COVID-19

K5 -
Morpheus1976 -
K5 -

My son and I both have asthma. I'm 40 and he's 18. What's the increased risk and mortality rate with our condition? His college cancelled school for a couple weeks. He is on a wrestling scholarship so he is in good shape physically. 

Source?

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1257784/pg3#pid24978829

Morpheus1976 -
K5 -
Morpheus1976 -
K5 -

My son and I both have asthma. I'm 40 and he's 18. What's the increased risk and mortality rate with our condition? His college cancelled school for a couple weeks. He is on a wrestling scholarship so he is in good shape physically. 

Source?

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1257784/pg3#pid24978829

Thanks! Fucking scary! I'm really worried about this shit

My wife's been an a hole all day, is she infected doc?

K5 -
Morpheus1976 -
K5 -
Morpheus1976 -
K5 -

My son and I both have asthma. I'm 40 and he's 18. What's the increased risk and mortality rate with our condition? His college cancelled school for a couple weeks. He is on a wrestling scholarship so he is in good shape physically. 

Source?

http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread1257784/pg3#pid24978829

Thanks! Fucking scary! I'm really worried about this shit

call a few doctors and get informed more?

https://biotechexaminer.com/wuhan-bat

1 Like

microbiologynerd -

https://biotechexaminer.com/wuhan-bat

Cum on man why you do that

Those of you with older and very "at risk" parents or friends, what precautions are you taking? Are you letting them go anywhere or just to certain places where they will run into very few people? My mother is 72 and has heart problems and we aren't letting her do much of anything aside from go to the local post office..grocery shopping is off limits and she's mostly fine with this

Am I going overboard with these precautions or should we take even more?wjat would those be exactly? Anyone else in the same boat?

ons ear - Those of you with older and very "at risk" parents or friends, what precautions are you taking? Are you letting them go anywhere or just to certain places where they will run into very few people? My mother is 72 and has heart problems and we aren't letting her do much of anything aside from go to the local post office..grocery shopping is off limits and she's mostly fine with this

Am I going overboard with these precautions or should we take even more?wjat would those be exactly? Anyone else in the same boat?

I'm 70 had a stroke and 5 stents in heart so i'm in the same boat as your mom. I just avoid crowds and obviously sick people and wash hands constantly. Aside from that life as usual. Edit to say what your doing sounds adquate.

ons ear - Those of you with older and very "at risk" parents or friends, what precautions are you taking? Are you letting them go anywhere or just to certain places where they will run into very few people? My mother is 72 and has heart problems and we aren't letting her do much of anything aside from go to the local post office..grocery shopping is off limits and she's mostly fine with this

Am I going overboard with these precautions or should we take even more?wjat would those be exactly? Anyone else in the same boat?

Mom in law is late 70s with serious lung and heart issues already.

She is not at all on board, but she is quarantined, whether she likes it or not. She seems to care more about seeing her grand kids. No one is coming or going from her place other than dropping groceries ect. on her porch, after sanitizing each individual item.

Our whole familys goal, other than hers, is to keep her ass alive.

ons ear - Those of you with older and very "at risk" parents or friends, what precautions are you taking? Are you letting them go anywhere or just to certain places where they will run into very few people? My mother is 72 and has heart problems and we aren't letting her do much of anything aside from go to the local post office..grocery shopping is off limits and she's mostly fine with this

Am I going overboard with these precautions or should we take even more?wjat would those be exactly? Anyone else in the same boat?

I'm advising all family members in that risk group to completely isolate. Theres no reason to go out anywhere in public(walking around outside around the neighborhood is fine).  Tell your mom quit going to the post office. You can use stamps.com or set up home pickup for other shipping companies.  

ons ear - Those of you with older and very "at risk" parents or friends, what precautions are you taking? Are you letting them go anywhere or just to certain places where they will run into very few people? My mother is 72 and has heart problems and we aren't letting her do much of anything aside from go to the local post office..grocery shopping is off limits and she's mostly fine with this

Am I going overboard with these precautions or should we take even more?wjat would those be exactly? Anyone else in the same boat?

Post office seems scetch to me.


 


manority of people lick envelopes still. It’s why my brothers courthouse job makes me nervous for him

Arodjohns -
Job Security - 
140kev -

Always good to put thing into perspective, but like mataleo said, flu is just as selective tested as covid-19, if not more.

I can give a better estimate og influenza mortality based on some very detailed monitoring we have set up in Denmark, where I work:

Each week during flu season (weeks 40 through 20), a random sample of the population in surveyed for influenza-like symptoms via questionairre, GP’s contact diagnoses are data mined for influenza-like symptoms, all influenza tests and influenza vaccinations are centrally registered regardless of outcomes.

For the flu season 2018-19 (for season 19-20 they’ve updated the system and fked the reporting up) in a population of about 5 million adults:

About 400 out of the 1500 persons who answered questionnaire reported flu-like symptoms in at least one week. Most weeks it was just 1-2% who reported symptoms though, and some of those were likely due to common colds, but during a three-week peak period, 5-6% reported this, likely representing an outbreak. A similar pattern was seen in the mined data from GPs and test results.

57,500 (about 1 % of the total population) persons were tested. 11,500 were positive for influenza A. 790 deaths were registered due to influenza.

Based on these numbers, mortality risk of influenza was 5% - 10% in confirmed cases. But this estimate among only the confirmed cases is overestimating the risk (5-30% of the population experience symptoms, (for simplicity lets say 20 %) but only the 1% most sick are tested and diagnosed). The true risk of all cases is then between 0.25% and 0.5 %

Even though that particular flu season wasn’t as bad a some others (like H1N1 Swine Flu), it wasn’t orders of magnitude milder.

In short: Regarding mortality risk covid-19 is no flu. And the problem with covid-19 is not just mortality, it’s how contagious it is and how many young (relatively), healthy adults that need ICU beds to survive.



I really appreciate you and the other professionals around here sharing your knowledge and experiences with us.

Would you quantify your statement about relatively young, healthy adults? I'm a 35 year old pack a day smoker that's asking so there's not going to be any sucker punch from me.

By young I mean 50+. That’s when the mortality seems to break away from the baseline that is probably due to frailty/underlying illnesses rather than age:


https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/


(take all those numbers with a grain of salt thoug though. They will depend heavily on context (mainly ICU/infection-spread.  And will change in the coming weeks).


I’ve learned the hard way from 65-year old senior doctors with aging complexes not to refer to a 60-year old patient as “old” :)


edit for clarity: you’re about as unlikely to die from this as anybody. Long-term is a different matter of course, regarding smoking :) 


btw. Your question reminded me of a very important aspect regarding testing, which I forgot in the original post regarding flu mortality. I’ll update it asap.

Thanks to all docs and medical professionals contributing to this thread, especially mataleo. 
 

You guys are on the front lines and exposed. Be safe and we are all pulling for you. 
 

 

If someone gets infected and is aware of it, when do they stop being contagious? How can they know if recovering at home? 
 

my 7 year old daughter has asthma and got pneumonia last winter, is she at any increased risk if she gets the CV19?

OxymoronicalAmbiguity - 

Any updated best practices for home care? Also, recommendations on when to go to the hospital and how to deal with multiple sick people in a single household?   Thank you for all your input so far! 


For home care: nothing much. You're isolated there, so no need to have anything prepared there. Have enough supplies (food, some meds for about 3-4 weeks) but don't hoard :)

If there are sick people at home, nothing either. The course is similar to the normal flu (a little longer, maybe a little sicker). Fluids, broth, tylenol, food, supplies.

Doc, I regularly (sometimes multiple times a day) use a neti pot to flush out my sinuses with salt water.  It has had a very beneficial impact on my seasonal allergies, I have not had a respiratory illness (to which I have historically been prone) in a long time.  Is this advisable or contraindicated?

Kwang - 

Didn't read the entire thread.


What is the typical treatment if you get diagnosed? 


Depends on what your docs believe in and where you live.

In the US, most treatments are considered entirely supportive. IV Fluids, tylenol, oxygen if necessary. If you become really sick, you might be given chloroquine +/- remdesivir.

Jump Kick - 

If someone gets infected and is aware of it, when do they stop being contagious? How can they know if recovering at home? 
 


my 7 year old daughter has asthma and got pneumonia last winter, is she at any increased risk if she gets the CV19?


For most respiratory viruses, you stop being contagious when you become asymptomatic. COVID has been found up to 35 days in respiratory mucous membranes, so technically you may be contagious that long although you might no be shedding any significant amounts then. However, based on preliminary data from China on how new cases are decreasing, it seems that 14 days is a better estimate. So if you're sick, stay home 7 days after the end of your symptoms.

For your daughter, theoretically, yes. But data so far shows that kids (even those with chronic conditions) are fairly protected against severe disease.

youarewhatiswrong - 

Doc, I regularly (sometimes multiple times a day) use a neti pot to flush out my sinuses with salt water.  It has had a very beneficial impact on my seasonal allergies, I have not had a respiratory illness (to which I have historically been prone) in a long time.  Is this advisable or contraindicated?


Neither. This has never shown to decrease your likelihood of catching the flu. It definitely helps for many other things (including allergies) and clearing your sinuses and clearing mild sinusitis, but no data on COVID. So carry on :)

southcraw -
ons ear - Those of you with older and very "at risk" parents or friends, what precautions are you taking? Are you letting them go anywhere or just to certain places where they will run into very few people? My mother is 72 and has heart problems and we aren't letting her do much of anything aside from go to the local post office..grocery shopping is off limits and she's mostly fine with this

Am I going overboard with these precautions or should we take even more?wjat would those be exactly? Anyone else in the same boat?

Post office seems scetch to me.


 


manority of people lick envelopes still. It’s why my brothers courthouse job makes me nervous for him

Somone who works at a courthouse in California was  (allegedly) the first respoted case in one of their counties. I'd definitely take precautions working in any job where you are interacting with large groups.