OG doc. AMA on COVID-19

Non N00B - 

Any truth to blood type playing a role in how your body responds? Rogan mentioned it on a podcast the other day. 


There is some data that A groups have a higher risk of acquiring COVID, but haven't seen anything with regards to virulence

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.11.20031096v1

We now have 2 confirmed cases in ICU but the volume in the hospital remains incredibly low. 

 

I saw a tweet yesterday indicating Arizona was experiencing the same with their hospital volume. 

 

Anyone else seeing the same at their hospitals?

Dude is not verified so take it for what it's worth.

 

Mountain Medic - 
turducken -

How powerful of a UV light would be required to inactivate the virus in one pass?   What I'm imagining is a baseball hat with a UV light underneath the brim so that its essentially making a face shield out of UV light, thereby inactivating any droplets or aerosols that pass through that light before reaching your face.


 


You could also wear sunscreen and sunglasses if there was concern over the UV light.  Or there could be a plastic face shield with some kins of protective coating(like what they use for low-e windows) and then the light shines down in front of the shield.  So the plastic just protects you from the UV light but the light is still whats making the virus killing barrier. Wouldn't be too hard to rig something up with a battery powered light just taped to a hat.


 


You could also make bracelets with UV lights directed out towards your hands to automatically sanitize anything that you reach for before you touch it.


 


Or you could have a backpack with a uv lamp extended above your head and pointed down over you, surrounding you in a bubble of virus inactivating light.


 


Elon could probably refine these designs nicely and crank these out. I'll just take a modest royalty for inventing the idea 

I know of at least one large flight service that is taking aircraft out of service for 24hrs after transporting Corona patients and putting the UV light systems in them for decon. That's going to be completely unsustainable if this really ramps up.


 


 


I ordered a portable LED UV light decon box, about the size of a largelunch cooler bag. I have a limited number of masks, II will probably start putting them in to decon them daily if the situation gets worse and we have to start wearing them daily outside. The bag exposes them to UV light for a timed 30 minutes.

Everyone in the UK has been asked to stand at their windows or their doorstep at 8pm tonigt and clap to show apprecitand support for all the hospital workers across the country. 

 

Thank you for all your hard work as well. 

1 Like
mataleo1 -
The Stewed Owl - 

mataleo1, I'd be interested in hearing your opinion on the new "Oxford model" if you have time to read it. Seems like either very good news or very very bad news if wrong. 

The latest study is surprisingly encouraging


Yes I had read that. I actually have friends (in Oxford!) who do AI-based epidemiological models. Their conclusions: according to their model, this could turn out to weather the storm quicker than those proposing very stringent isolation. HOWEVER, considering the unknowns there are small chances that this will produce VERY bad results.

Something like (that's how they voiced it):
Oxford: 96% good outcome, 2% bad outcome, 2% catastrophic
Confinement: 95% good outcome, 4% bad outcome, 1% catastrophic

Their conclusions: bad idea. The risks of a catastrophic outcome do not compensate for a significant potential for a quicker recovery

So he mentioned an imperial study. Looks like that imperial study has also been revised?

 

1 Like
NoNeed4aScreenName -

Dude is not verified so take it for what it's worth.

 

Likely pretty accurate for areas not swamped with COVID patients. Hospitals have stopped non-emergent procedures due to lack of PPE and lots of patients are rescheduling non-urgent outpatient visits to avoid going to medical centers and possibly being exposed. It is eerie how quiet the hospitals and clinics in my area are now

2 Likes
SC MMA MD - 
NoNeed4aScreenName -

Dude is not verified so take it for what it's worth.

 



Likely pretty accurate for areas not swamped with COVID patients. Hospitals have stopped non-emergent procedures due to lack of PPE and lots of patients are rescheduling non-urgent outpatient visits to avoid going to medical centers and possibly being exposed. It is eerie how quiet the hospitals and clinics in my area are now



 


Fewer people on the road and in the workplace may = fewer accidents, too. Also less non-COVID-19 communicable diseases being passed.


 


 

1 Like
SC MMA MD -
NoNeed4aScreenName -

Dude is not verified so take it for what it's worth.

 

Likely pretty accurate for areas not swamped with COVID patients. Hospitals have stopped non-emergent procedures due to lack of PPE and lots of patients are rescheduling non-urgent outpatient visits to avoid going to medical centers and possibly being exposed. It is eerie how quiet the hospitals and clinics in my area are now

Hopefully someone from the other areas that are hit like Washington or california can say what their experiences have been in a hospital setting. 


 


I dont think we are going to experience anything like New York here. 

The Stewed Owl -
SC MMA MD - 
NoNeed4aScreenName -

Dude is not verified so take it for what it's worth.

 



Likely pretty accurate for areas not swamped with COVID patients. Hospitals have stopped non-emergent procedures due to lack of PPE and lots of patients are rescheduling non-urgent outpatient visits to avoid going to medical centers and possibly being exposed. It is eerie how quiet the hospitals and clinics in my area are now



 


Fewer people on the road and in the workplace may = fewer accidents, too. Also less non-COVID-19 communicable diseases being passed.


 


 

By cancelling elective surgeries we cut anywhere from 50-75 new admissions for the week already. 


 


I'm going to assume we also cancelled the day surgeries as well. 


 


The no visitor policy only further makes the hospital feel especially empty

2 Likes

 

Your thoughts on this OP?

^wow!^

1 Like

rudiger - 


 


Your thoughts on this OP?


In public discussion of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, Wodarg gained notoriety as an interviewee where he presented his thesis that SARS-CoV-2 was only one of many similar viruses which usually go undetected as part of an ordinary seasonal period of respiratory infections, and that the worldwide activities to stop the pandemic were "hype" caused by the selective perception of researchers.[4] He detailed his thesis in publications on his personal website.[5] Some put the numbers of casualties, infections and IC intake in Italy in 2020 in perspective to the Italian Flu-season of 2017/18 where approx 18,000 Italians died due to the flu.[6] Other scientists also pointed out the possible unreliability of the Corona-tests that were hastily approved without the normal peer-review and extensive testing, and mentioned a fatality rate of between 0,025% and 0,625% based on the only aselect population case available (the Diamond Princess) as possibly more realistic than the 3,4% that the WHO published and stressed the point that the world was at risk of "making decisions without reliable data".[7] Chinese scientists published on March 5th a report that concluded that "in the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives", corroborating the questions Wodarg raised in the interviews.[8] EuroMOMO European Mortality Monitor (EuroMOMO), mentioned by Wodarg in the interviews, tracks 'All-Cause Death Statistics' of 28 connected European countries since 2009. Their data up and until week 11, 2020 also does not - as Wodarg mentioned - show any indication of any excess mortality up until that date. It does show a decline of the weekly deaths and the end of a seemingly mild virus-season 2019/20.[9] Note: the EuroMOMO did add a disclaimer on its weekly updates stating to be cautious with interpreting their weekly data because of possible (administrative) delay and that local peaks in occurrences could not be visible in national statistics.

The Stewed Owl -
SC MMA MD - 
NoNeed4aScreenName -

Dude is not verified so take it for what it's worth.

 



Likely pretty accurate for areas not swamped with COVID patients. Hospitals have stopped non-emergent procedures due to lack of PPE and lots of patients are rescheduling non-urgent outpatient visits to avoid going to medical centers and possibly being exposed. It is eerie how quiet the hospitals and clinics in my area are now



 


Fewer people on the road and in the workplace may = fewer accidents, too. Also less non-COVID-19 communicable diseases being passed.


 


 

Keep in mind people protecting themselves against Corona virus are also protecting themselves against the regular flu, colds and other sicknesses.

jcblass - 
rudiger - 


 


Your thoughts on this OP?


In public discussion of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, Wodarg gained notoriety as an interviewee where he presented his thesis that SARS-CoV-2 was only one of many similar viruses which usually go undetected as part of an ordinary seasonal period of respiratory infections, and that the worldwide activities to stop the pandemic were "hype" caused by the selective perception of researchers.[4] He detailed his thesis in publications on his personal website.[5] Some put the numbers of casualties, infections and IC intake in Italy in 2020 in perspective to the Italian Flu-season of 2017/18 where approx 18,000 Italians died due to the flu.[6] Other scientists also pointed out the possible unreliability of the Corona-tests that were hastily approved without the normal peer-review and extensive testing, and mentioned a fatality rate of between 0,025% and 0,625% based on the only aselect population case available (the Diamond Princess) as possibly more realistic than the 3,4% that the WHO published and stressed the point that the world was at risk of "making decisions without reliable data".[7] Chinese scientists published on March 5th a report that concluded that "in the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives", corroborating the questions Wodarg raised in the interviews.[8] EuroMOMO European Mortality Monitor (EuroMOMO), mentioned by Wodarg in the interviews, tracks 'All-Cause Death Statistics' of 28 connected European countries since 2009. Their data up and until week 11, 2020 also does not - as Wodarg mentioned - show any indication of any excess mortality up until that date. It does show a decline of the weekly deaths and the end of a seemingly mild virus-season 2019/20.[9] Note: the EuroMOMO did add a disclaimer on its weekly updates stating to be cautious with interpreting their weekly data because of possible (administrative) delay and that local peaks in occurrences could not be visible in national statistics.

Guess we won't see this in the MSM

psychosphere - 
jcblass - 
rudiger - 


 


Your thoughts on this OP?


In public discussion of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, Wodarg gained notoriety as an interviewee where he presented his thesis that SARS-CoV-2 was only one of many similar viruses which usually go undetected as part of an ordinary seasonal period of respiratory infections, and that the worldwide activities to stop the pandemic were "hype" caused by the selective perception of researchers.[4] He detailed his thesis in publications on his personal website.[5] Some put the numbers of casualties, infections and IC intake in Italy in 2020 in perspective to the Italian Flu-season of 2017/18 where approx 18,000 Italians died due to the flu.[6] Other scientists also pointed out the possible unreliability of the Corona-tests that were hastily approved without the normal peer-review and extensive testing, and mentioned a fatality rate of between 0,025% and 0,625% based on the only aselect population case available (the Diamond Princess) as possibly more realistic than the 3,4% that the WHO published and stressed the point that the world was at risk of "making decisions without reliable data".[7] Chinese scientists published on March 5th a report that concluded that "in the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives", corroborating the questions Wodarg raised in the interviews.[8] EuroMOMO European Mortality Monitor (EuroMOMO), mentioned by Wodarg in the interviews, tracks 'All-Cause Death Statistics' of 28 connected European countries since 2009. Their data up and until week 11, 2020 also does not - as Wodarg mentioned - show any indication of any excess mortality up until that date. It does show a decline of the weekly deaths and the end of a seemingly mild virus-season 2019/20.[9] Note: the EuroMOMO did add a disclaimer on its weekly updates stating to be cautious with interpreting their weekly data because of possible (administrative) delay and that local peaks in occurrences could not be visible in national statistics.

Guess we won't see this in the MSM

This is all interesting read.

We can argue all we want about mortality rates. I've been off of it for a while (even if I'm convinced this is at least 10x higher than we know for the flu).

However, the biggest metric (which really isn't a metric) that I am considering now are the sick cases in the ICU.

Of my 20+ year career, i have never seen anything like this. My colleagues are giving me dire updates on the situation in NY. I've been an attending for gang shootings, H1N1, drug party overdoses, methanol outbreaks. I have NEVER seen our ICUs swamped the way they are now. Deaths galore. And that's considering that everything elective is already cancelled (even aortic aneurysms repairs).

I know that this is unique to NY, but I hope people elsewhere don't get to experience this.

1 Like

mataleo1 -
psychosphere - 
jcblass - 
rudiger - 


 


Your thoughts on this OP?


In public discussion of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, Wodarg gained notoriety as an interviewee where he presented his thesis that SARS-CoV-2 was only one of many similar viruses which usually go undetected as part of an ordinary seasonal period of respiratory infections, and that the worldwide activities to stop the pandemic were "hype" caused by the selective perception of researchers.[4] He detailed his thesis in publications on his personal website.[5] Some put the numbers of casualties, infections and IC intake in Italy in 2020 in perspective to the Italian Flu-season of 2017/18 where approx 18,000 Italians died due to the flu.[6] Other scientists also pointed out the possible unreliability of the Corona-tests that were hastily approved without the normal peer-review and extensive testing, and mentioned a fatality rate of between 0,025% and 0,625% based on the only aselect population case available (the Diamond Princess) as possibly more realistic than the 3,4% that the WHO published and stressed the point that the world was at risk of "making decisions without reliable data".[7] Chinese scientists published on March 5th a report that concluded that "in the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives", corroborating the questions Wodarg raised in the interviews.[8] EuroMOMO European Mortality Monitor (EuroMOMO), mentioned by Wodarg in the interviews, tracks 'All-Cause Death Statistics' of 28 connected European countries since 2009. Their data up and until week 11, 2020 also does not - as Wodarg mentioned - show any indication of any excess mortality up until that date. It does show a decline of the weekly deaths and the end of a seemingly mild virus-season 2019/20.[9] Note: the EuroMOMO did add a disclaimer on its weekly updates stating to be cautious with interpreting their weekly data because of possible (administrative) delay and that local peaks in occurrences could not be visible in national statistics.

Guess we won't see this in the MSM

This is all interesting read.

We can argue all we want about mortality rates. I've been off of it for a while (even if I'm convinced this is at least 10x higher than we know for the flu).

However, the biggest metric (which really isn't a metric) that I am considering now are the sick cases in the ICU.

Of my 20+ year career, i have never seen anything like this. My colleagues are giving me dire updates on the situation in NY. I've been an attending for gang shootings, H1N1, drug party overdoses, methanol outbreaks. I have NEVER seen our ICUs swamped the way they are now. Deaths galore. And that's considering that everything elective is already cancelled (even aortic aneurysms repairs).

I know that this is unique to NY, but I hope people elsewhere don't get to experience this.

its only to going to worse, Trump acted way too late.


It happened in Wuhan, Italy, Spain, Switserland and more countries will follow.


we are at war with an invisible enemy

Morpheus1976 - 
mataleo1 -
psychosphere - 
jcblass - 
rudiger - 


 


Your thoughts on this OP?


In public discussion of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, Wodarg gained notoriety as an interviewee where he presented his thesis that SARS-CoV-2 was only one of many similar viruses which usually go undetected as part of an ordinary seasonal period of respiratory infections, and that the worldwide activities to stop the pandemic were "hype" caused by the selective perception of researchers.[4] He detailed his thesis in publications on his personal website.[5] Some put the numbers of casualties, infections and IC intake in Italy in 2020 in perspective to the Italian Flu-season of 2017/18 where approx 18,000 Italians died due to the flu.[6] Other scientists also pointed out the possible unreliability of the Corona-tests that were hastily approved without the normal peer-review and extensive testing, and mentioned a fatality rate of between 0,025% and 0,625% based on the only aselect population case available (the Diamond Princess) as possibly more realistic than the 3,4% that the WHO published and stressed the point that the world was at risk of "making decisions without reliable data".[7] Chinese scientists published on March 5th a report that concluded that "in the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives", corroborating the questions Wodarg raised in the interviews.[8] EuroMOMO European Mortality Monitor (EuroMOMO), mentioned by Wodarg in the interviews, tracks 'All-Cause Death Statistics' of 28 connected European countries since 2009. Their data up and until week 11, 2020 also does not - as Wodarg mentioned - show any indication of any excess mortality up until that date. It does show a decline of the weekly deaths and the end of a seemingly mild virus-season 2019/20.[9] Note: the EuroMOMO did add a disclaimer on its weekly updates stating to be cautious with interpreting their weekly data because of possible (administrative) delay and that local peaks in occurrences could not be visible in national statistics.

Guess we won't see this in the MSM

This is all interesting read.

We can argue all we want about mortality rates. I've been off of it for a while (even if I'm convinced this is at least 10x higher than we know for the flu).

However, the biggest metric (which really isn't a metric) that I am considering now are the sick cases in the ICU.

Of my 20+ year career, i have never seen anything like this. My colleagues are giving me dire updates on the situation in NY. I've been an attending for gang shootings, H1N1, drug party overdoses, methanol outbreaks. I have NEVER seen our ICUs swamped the way they are now. Deaths galore. And that's considering that everything elective is already cancelled (even aortic aneurysms repairs).

I know that this is unique to NY, but I hope people elsewhere don't get to experience this.

its only to going to worse, Trump acted way too late.


It happened in Wuhan, Italy, Spain, Switserland and more countries will follow.


we are at war with an invisible enemy


That's right, it's Trump's fault!!!

(could you imagine around the time of impeachment if Trump wanted to shut things down and restrict domestic travel!!!)

the left would lose their mind, "he is using this virus to distract us from the real issue, which is impeaching this mother fucker"

Honestly, Trump took the early step of restricting travel from China and the left lost their mind! "he is a hysterical racist!"

Go away with your politics.

2 Likes

I want to believe what is said in that video but it just doesnt match up with what is happening in the hospitals in these hot spots.

I hate how anxious I am just in general over all of this.

I have started to pull back from a lot of the news updates because it is just a rabbit hole of hysteria for the most part.

jcblass -
rudiger - 

 

Your thoughts on this OP?


In public discussion of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in early 2020, Wodarg gained notoriety as an interviewee where he presented his thesis that SARS-CoV-2 was only one of many similar viruses which usually go undetected as part of an ordinary seasonal period of respiratory infections, and that the worldwide activities to stop the pandemic were "hype" caused by the selective perception of researchers.[4] He detailed his thesis in publications on his personal website.[5] Some put the numbers of casualties, infections and IC intake in Italy in 2020 in perspective to the Italian Flu-season of 2017/18 where approx 18,000 Italians died due to the flu.[6] Other scientists also pointed out the possible unreliability of the Corona-tests that were hastily approved without the normal peer-review and extensive testing, and mentioned a fatality rate of between 0,025% and 0,625% based on the only aselect population case available (the Diamond Princess) as possibly more realistic than the 3,4% that the WHO published and stressed the point that the world was at risk of "making decisions without reliable data".[7] Chinese scientists published on March 5th a report that concluded that "in the close contacts of COVID-19 patients, nearly half or even more of the 'asymptomatic infected individuals' reported in the active nucleic acid test screening might be false positives", corroborating the questions Wodarg raised in the interviews.[8] EuroMOMO European Mortality Monitor (EuroMOMO), mentioned by Wodarg in the interviews, tracks 'All-Cause Death Statistics' of 28 connected European countries since 2009. Their data up and until week 11, 2020 also does not - as Wodarg mentioned - show any indication of any excess mortality up until that date. It does show a decline of the weekly deaths and the end of a seemingly mild virus-season 2019/20.[9] Note: the EuroMOMO did add a disclaimer on its weekly updates stating to be cautious with interpreting their weekly data because of possible (administrative) delay and that local peaks in occurrences could not be visible in national statistics.


He’s right in the sense that you have to put it into perspective and be careful because the data is so incomplete at this point. And the measures to mitigate COVID-19 come at an economic and health care cost. Whether it ends up being good to err on the side of caution of the unknown remains to be seen - data on mortality/critical cases in Sweden (which has not locked down), will provide some indication, probably already in the coming week.


However, there is data available to begin to estimate the effect of COVID-19 on all-cause mortality in Lombardy. I’m using the figures reported at: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/,  


https://www.statista.com/statistics/569435/number-of-deaths-in-italy-by-region/ and https://www.statista.com/statistics/1099389/coronavirus-deaths-by-region-in-italy/ :


Approximate yearly all-cause mortality in Lombardy: 100000 (I haven’t been able to find mortality for each month, some variation is to be expected). That’s 8300 per month or 1920 per week on average.


COVID-19-associated mortality in Lombardy in the last month: 4.800.


About 60% of all COVID-associated deaths in Italy have occured in the last week, so if you apply that percentage to Lombardy, you get a weekly COVID-19-associated mortality of 2900.


 


Depending on where you put your timeline in the epidemic, you get different mortalities, but the number of deaths in Italy seems to have stabilized in the last week, so I think it’s fair to use that time-period: 2900 COVID-19-associated deaths vs. a weekly average of 1920 total expected deaths of all causes. Even if that’s a very crude estimate, it’s clear that this thing (when disseminated in a population and overwhelming health care resources) causes deaths on a much larger scale than influenza or the common non-SARS coronaviruses.

1 Like