poker hand: what would you do?

you get K/K in the BB. a bunch of limpers to you so you make it 15. only the button and the SM call your raise - three in the pot of about 50 bucks.

the flop comes 7/K/8 rainbow. the SB bets 20 into you with the button still to act after you.

what do you do???

Hey headcheese,

First of all we need much more information to make a proper analysis. Things like the blind sizes, the stack amounts for all the relevant players, general table conditions (such as loose, aggressive, etc.) and any particular player reads.

In this paricular case, you have flopped a monster and the only real hand you are worried about is T9. This is a rare case where slowplaying is more than likely correct. 1) There are no real draws, but if a J or 6 comes off on the turn, you might have to be careful, although you do have a redraw to a full house, 2) You don't mind if the button comes along for the turn, 3) You would like to let your opponents see the turn to give them a chance to make a second best hand, 4) you don't want to make it easy for someone with top pair (probably the SB) to be able to lay his hand down.

exactly my reasoning!

i put the SB on a king or maybe 2 pair. i knew i was way ahead and felt a slow play here would maximize my winnings. if a raised i'd most likley lose the button and maybe even the SB if he was trying to steal it. if i just called, the button might come in and hopefully the SB would bet again on the turn since i just called and i could raise then. so i just called and so did the button.

the turn was a 5. the SB again bet out - 30 bucks.

what would you do now??

Well, now you are losing to 96, however it seems very unlikely that they would call a pf raise so let's ignore that possibility.

I will assume that the 5 puts makes a four-flush possible. And we are still worried about a 6 or jack, and less likely a four (65 would make a straight).

So let's shut them out here on the turn, the pot is big enough, and we dont want to fuck around.

Let's figure out the pot size: $110+SB's bet of $30. So that's make $140 in the pot. If someone's chasing a open ended straight draw that's eight outs, if a flush, that's 9 outs. 46 to 9 (the higher amount of outs) is approximately 5 to 1, so we need to need a raise that will not offer correct odds to anyone chasing.

If we raise to a $100 total, that would put $240 in the pot. The button would have to call $100 to win $240 more or 2.4 to 1, and the SB would have to call $70 to win $240 more - 3.5 to 1. If the button calls, then the SB gets a price of $340 to $70, or about 5 to 1 which is what we don't want.

So we should raise more.... maybe to say $130 - make an even $100 raise - high enough that if they call with anything, they are either drawing dead, or drawing unprofitably. And that's basically all you can do.

Don't get greedy, raise to $130.

i had very simular reasoning(minus most of the math). "end it here with a big bet". what you said was very close to what i did, but i thought a raise to 100 would be enough, and that's what i raised - another 70 bucks (after reading your post i can see how that 70 more might not have been enough all things considered, but i was pretty sure the button would not call).

the button folded(as i was pretty sure she would) and the SB went all in which surprised me a little. he had me covered. i had about 85 bucks left(if i remember correctly).

now what??

Lay it down... jk jk, obviously you don't have any choice but call. If the river beats you, the river beats you. Nothing you can do.

well, its good to know that at least i played that hand almost exactly the way you would have.

i did call and the guy actually had a 6/4. he then said, "they were suited".

thanks for playing along PR.

lol no problem, it was like those old "choose your own adventure" books.

Guess you didn't fill up on the river and make your boat?

nope.

its getting really hard to play these days. i'm running really bad...

your post about taking bad beats meaning that you are "playing right" helped out a lot. thats a great way to look at it and sometimes i lose sight of that when my poker sessions feel like dental appointments.

You have all the GOOD cards!

What can the button call with?

If SB is deep and you are deep might jusd might raise him right there.

True most times you just win that, but if you guys got chips he may pay you off sometimes for a big amount.

Top set with little to draw at means less chance to get big action on later streets unless you are beat.

i put the SB on a king(maybe 2 pair or possibly a smaller set) and was hoping he had me on AQ, QQ, or JJ. i really didn't think a SB would call a 15 raise with 64, and then bet a gut shot into the raiser out of position.

i rarely slowplay (without the nuts which i had here) but on this occasion, given the circumstances, i thought it was safe to just call and build a bigger pot. the SB was aggresive and he was doing my betting for me.

would you have played that hand differently wrecker?

Although your hand is not vulnerable to a outdraw too much, I like putting the presure on right away against this guy.

No one can get away from a set on the flop on that board but on the turn after a smooth call on flop and preflop raise from you screams KKK. Two pair will pay off for sure on the flop and possibly just case king.

Still more things to be considered about this guy, but playiing your hand superstrong on flop can confuse and get a payoff from aggresive players.

NOWAY he ould have 3 kings! Is what can run through the guys mind

I think you played it correctly, I think I would have
typed some similar stuff to PR (but without the math).

Good opportunity for a slow play on the flop, but pull
the trigger on the turn. If you are beat (or get
outdrawn), then there's not a lot you can do about it.

Probably the only way I would have bet out on the flop
was if I thought it would build the pot instead of
finishing it.

i think i played it as well as you could play that hand.

lately, i've been on a terrible run with many hands far worse than that one, being way ahead and taking terrible beatings on the turn or the river - and these aren't hands i slow played. i mean its really unbelievable how bad my luck has been. just one improbable beating after another. i've discussed my hands with some good players where i play (and they have seen a lot of my hands) and they just shake their heads in disgust at my "luck". two outers hit on the river, endless runner runner's - i can't take it anymore. its the bad players who are beating me and doing it with their terrible play.

its times like these that i feel like reviving the old "luck vs. skill" thread.....

i'm taking some time of to let the frustration wear off.....i think i'll spend time studying the percentages or something so i can give the exact odds the next guy who beats me defied to win my pot.

funny you mentioned the luck vs. skill debate - I am starting to understand the luck part of it much more.

Last home game I played in, in the course of 4 8-man
tournaments I lost with Aces, Kings and Queens. I was
ahead on the flop every time but I never won with
them.

In the last tournament of the night I busted out after
going all-in with Aces, being in a dominant position
and getting drawn out on TWICE IN A ROW. Once was
runner-runner.

Getting Aces back-to-back is pretty god-damned rare.
Losing horribly with them after dominating your heads-
up opponent both times is rarer enough that I hope it
doesn't happen again anytime soon.

imagine luck like that for a about 10 sessions in a row playing casino no limit cash games and you'll begin to feel my agony.

lately, even if i win a pot, it winds up being a split pot on the river when the weaker hand catches up to me. anyone who says that poker is all skill has never had a prolonged bad luck streak. yes, its plenty skill, but its plenty luck too.

i've been 75% to 87% to win after the flop too many times to count in the last 10 sessions and i can count the number of times my has held up with 2 fingers. i've been heads up preflop with aces 3 times - lost all, and once got it all in on the flop and lost to runner runner. my sets go down, my straights get rivered, my flushes don't come - while theirs do, my 2 pair get counterfieted. its fucking unreal. this is by far the worst run i've ever had. and its not like i'm playing badly - if anything i'm playing better poker. i run the numbers on my beats and i'm not imagining this - i'm usually way ahead and just getting hammered and i'm making them pay a high cost to outdraw me, except in rare instances like those kings.

make it stop make it stop......take me to a happy place.

On the other hand, the big winner that night hit at least 6 bad beats in a row to take the first tourney.

It was sick.

He's a good player, but he has a tendency to make bad calls and get rewarded.

I lost with TOP set in holdem 5 times in a row over the course of 3-4 days.

Last one was 7-4-3 turn 2 river 5, 777 went down to AK to back door flush possible.

My point is if you play long enough you will SEE IT ALL.

I lost a large pot 600-800 and the guy was drawing dead on the turn!

The dealer burned and turned watching the tv was his only out, card came bcak gave him a possibly gut straight that was filled on river.

Sometimes they come at once and its brutal. BUT THIS IS HOW YOU MAKE MONEY! They pay ahorrible price to play the hand. A good player also makes money by still playing good after being beaten! A average plyers play will suffer hurting the end of month total

Not handling losing well is why few people ever make it playing poker.

"My point is if you play long enough you will SEE IT ALL. "

i'm still waiting for my prolonged streak where i can't lose a hand unless i fold and everyone becomes scared to even get into a hand with me. when will i see that?

i've seen enough of the reverse to last a lifetime.