Long read (and a longer write-up), but if you're into this type of stuff (handicapping grappling matches) I think it's worth it. This time since the majority of the matches are superfights as oppossed to a tournament I just flat out predicted a winner, along with a lot of background and reasoning why I made my picks. Gumby's Column at OntheMat! Agree with me? Disagree? Post here and lets see how accurate we are after this weekend!
Hey Gumby, I think your picks are pretty good, at least for the superfights. Pop and Garcia is the one I am dying to see the most. Later..
Marcello Garcia by rear naked choke.
Thanks Anthony- For the record I think you'll win your match, but
correct me if I'm wrong that you're an alternate and not going to
get to enter the tournament unless a drop out happens?
Hellraiser is a definite monster.
Your picks are WAY different than mine. Here are mine:
(special weight 80 KG): Pablo Popovich (American TOP TEAM, Ft Lauderdale, FL) versus Marcelo Garcia (Gurghel JJ, Sao Paulo, Brazil)
Charles Pick: Pablo Popovich
Over 99 KG: Jeff Monson (American TOP TEAM, Ft Lauderdale, FL) versus Marcio 'Pe De Pano' Cruz (Gracie Barra, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
Charles' pick: Monson
55-76.99 KG: Marcos Avellan (Freestyle Fighting Academy, Miami, FL) versus Otto Olson (AMC Pankration, Seattle, WA)
Here you were very off on your assessment of marcos' abilities. His submissions are his strongpoint way over his wrestling. He will win this by submission.
Charles' pick: Avellan
77-87.99 KG: Todd Margolis (Lloyd Irvin USA, Team Grapplers Quest, Camp Springs, Maryland) versus David Avellan (Freestyle Fighting Academy, Miami, FL)
Dave walks are around 190-195 and Im pretty sure Todd walks around at pretty much the same weight. They surely looked the same size in their first matchup. Also dave has never been known for his strength as he never lifts weights and is more speed+technique.
Charles' Pick David Avellan
Under 65.99 KG: Marcos 'Parumpinha' Meira (American TOP TEAM, Ft Lauderdale, FL) versus Katsuhiro Hirata (Japan Qualifier Champion, Tokyo, Japan)
Im making this decision based soley on parumpinha's past performances. I have no clue on his opponent but he would have to be among the best in the world at his weight to beat him.
Charles' Pick: Parumpinha
Over 99 KG: Wade Rome (American TOP TEAM, Ft Lauderdale, FL) versus Rob Constance (Team Renzo Gracie, NY)
Again I dont know anything about constance but wade is extremely large, strong and a very accomplished wrestler. Add to that he is very very tough to tap and I would guess he will win this one on points.
Charles' Pick: Rome
UNDER 65.99 KG: (145 LBS)
-Nobou Yagai (Grapplers Edge, CO) versus Mike Mrikulic (Royler Gracie/Dave Adiv USA, Team GQ, Montclair, NJ)
-Mike Cardoso (FFA, Miami, FL) versus Renato Tavares (ATT, Ft Lauderdale, FL)
ALT: Raphael Assuncao (Jacare, Atlanta, GA) v. TBD
The winner of this devision will be based on who wins verses cardoso and tavares.
Charles' Pick: Mike Cardoso
66-76.9 KG: (169 LBS)
-Ricardo 'Teixeira' (FFA, Miami, FL) versus Raphael Diaz (ATT, Ft Lauderdale, FL)
-Eric Koble (Grapplers Edge, CO) versus Ryan Ellison (Jacare, Atlanta, GA)
ALT: Anthony Tolone (Orlando, FL) versus Chad Wagoner (Freelance, Kokomo, IN)
Charles' Pick: Ricardo Hellraiser Teixeira
77-87.9 KG: (193.5 LBS)
-Ken Kronenberg (Tai Kai Machado USA, Team GQ, Syracuse, NY) versus Moacyr 'Boca' Oliveira (ATT, Miami, FL)
-Charles Mccarthy (FFA, Miami, FL) versus Beau Clark (Grapplers Edge, PA)
ALT: Chris Moriarty (Jacare, Atlanta, GA) v. TBD
Charles' pick: me of course!
Good luck to everyone it should be a fantastic event!
LOL, I like Charles' picks better too :)
Cool write-up Gumby, it is very good for the event and the fans.
TTT
I hope I am wrong on some of my picks but here goes. BTW, Charles, I'm really surprised you picked someone from Fla. to win every fight :)
*Note* Nobody please take my picks personally.
Pablo Popovich (American TOP TEAM, Ft Lauderdale, FL) versus Marcelo Garcia (Gurghel JJ, Sao Paulo, Brazil).
My pick: Garcia. I'm rooting for Pablo but like Gumby said, Garcia has just been on a tear of late. And for as good as Pablo's training partners are, Marcello is a very tough guy to prepare for.
Over 99 KG: Jeff Monson (American TOP TEAM, Ft Lauderdale, FL) versus Marcio 'Pe De Pano' Cruz (Gracie Barra, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil)
My pick: PeDePano. This one is a tough one to call. I think it will be a match won by advantages. I don't think Pe will let Jeff get the takedown and I can't see Jeff passing Pe's guard. I'm picking Pe by adv. or by sweep.
65-76.99 KG: Marcos Avellan (Freestyle Fighting Academy, Miami, FL) versus Otto Olson (AMC Pankration, Seattle, WA)
My pick: Olsen. I think Olsen has the edge in standup and that will be the difference. Marcos will have to win off his back and that will be be tough because Olsen has great base. Marcos has shown a pretty good half guard so I don't think Olsen will pass him and Marcos' best chance is by leg sub. I'm picking Olsen 2-0.
77-87.99 KG: Todd Margolis (Lloyd Irvin USA, Team Grapplers Quest, Camp Springs, Maryland) versus David Avellan (Freestyle Fighting Academy, Miami, FL)
My pick: Whomever scores first. Gumby and Charles are both incorrect on the weight on their fight last time. Todd fought Shoalin at 169 at the Arnold the week before their last fight at GQ and gave up almost 15 lbs in that match which David won pretty convincingly. Todd will be as big as David this time. I wish I can see this one. Both have great standup and very good bottom games. They are so similiar in talent. This could be the best fight of the tourney. But I have a feeling their will be a couple of takedowns in this one. It sucks one will lose this one because both of these guys deserve to be in ADCC.
Under 65.99 KG: Parrumpinha' (American TOP TEAM, Ft Lauderdale, FL) versus Katsuhiro Hirata (Japan Qualifier Champion, Tokyo, Japan)
My pick: Parrumpinha. I think P will win this one by a large margin. I can see him scoring 10 pts in this match.
Over 99 KG: Wade Rome (American TOP TEAM, Ft Lauderdale, FL) versus Rob Constance (Team Renzo Gracie, NY)
My pick: Nobody. Rob is mny teammate so I am not going to pick this fight. Both guys are HUGE, w/ good takedowns and like to pass.
UNDER 65.99 KG: (145 LBS) My pick: Cardosa
66-76.9 KG: (169 LBS)My pick: Hellraiser. I wish Tolone was in the main draw, him and Hellraiser would be a good clash of styles and bodytypes.
77-87.9 KG: (193.5 LBS)My pick:Boca.
Good luck to everyone.
ttt
If Chris Moriarty get's a chance.... watch out!
Could someone post the time and location?
Good luck Marcos
SUBMISSION WRESTLING OPEN 1
Saturday, February 28th, 2004
North Broward Prep High School
7600 Lyons Road, Coconut Creek, Florida 33073
DOORS OPEN: 11:00 AM EST
START TIME: 1 PM EST
God this makes me glad I moved to Miami!!!
Savbo: good picks. The thing about this is that all the matches are so well put together it makes it difficult to pick winners. The fact that all the guys I picked were locals doesnt show bias as much as it shows the amazing skill level in south florida.
Charles-I agree, I think every match (except Parrapinha's)is very, very tough to call. Good luck in your division.
TTT- Always fun to compare predictions to the
actual results. :)