Although GSP is undoubtedly the favorite over Nick Diaz and Carlos Condit respectively, the probability of going through both of them is a tall order even for GSP.
The one sequence from the Kim-Condit fight that has blown me away is Condit's smooth sweep of a great grappler with smothering top control like Kim. It's clear Condit's worked a lot on working off of his back. People who in hindsight argue Kim is an overrated grappler have no idea what they are talking about. That was an incredible move by Carlos - any way you slice it.
Condit is a dynamic striker who is ridiculously tall for a WW, and he is constantly active standing and on the ground. Condit is stylistically similar to Nick Diaz in a lot of ways.
I think we have to see a decline in GSP's career at some point and I think Nick Diaz is going to be the guy to signal that decline.
If GSP proves me wrong, colored me impressed. But I have never genuinely scared for him in a fight up until now. Diaz is going to hit him, and we're going to see what GSP's made of. And Condit is another huge challenger even if GSP gets by Diaz.
ttt
If we were to give GSP a chance of beating Diaz: ~70%
And assign the probability of GSP beating Condit: ~70%
(which I believe are reasonable odds)
that means GSP's chance of retaining his belt for another year (i.e. getting by these two challengers in a row) is much smaller than you'd think out of a P4P great ~50% (0.7*0.7)
I think this hasn't sunken into a lot of people. GSP's title reign is legitimately in threat
ttt
0 imo.
C'mon guys.
let's not lean towards either extremes - 0 & 100%
Outcomes of fights are probabilistic, not deterministic.
Well it is obvious that a wrestler isn't taking out GSP and so why not a gritty striker with excellent standup. GSP doesn't want to get into a drag out dog fight and that is exactly what both Diaz and Condit are doing to try and do.
90% in both fights
so 81%
you have to remember that Condit and Diaz have poor TD defense and have a history of losing to LnP, and GSP has the best takedowns and top game in the sport.
I agree with you. I have the utmost confidence in GSP against WW wrestlers.
But Diaz and Condit bring pressure and that's the one thing GSP is not fond of, at all. He likes to always be in his comfort zone and has to fight urges of panic when he forced outside of it.
Condit still has to win a fight to get a title shot, which depending on the opponent he might be the underdog. But he's got the style to beat GSP.
DaemonDragon - I agree with you. I have the utmost confidence in GSP against WW wrestlers.
But Diaz and Condit bring pressure and that's the one thing GSP is not fond of, at all. He likes to always be in his comfort zone and has to fight urges of panic when he forced outside of it.
Condit still has to win a fight to get a title shot, which depending on the opponent he might be the underdog. But he's got the style to beat GSP.
GSP's next two fights (or one) should be barn-burners! I wouldn't bat an eyebrow if there's an upset
GSP training with the Coach, Freddie Roach:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=piL4ByIi7Mo&feature=channel_video_title
"I agree with you. I have the utmost confidence in GSP against WW wrestlers."
GSP also owns all the strikers he has fought, with striking. GSP's striking is completely underrated. He has the necessary speed and athletism to truly excel in striking.
All that said, Diaz should pose little more challenge as he has an unreal BJJ (especially his guard from rolling with Jake Shields on a regular basis)
If you can deal with Jake Shields' top game, you can handle GSP's
GSP would outwrestle Condit without too much trouble, terrible match-up for Condit.
The only real threat to GSP is Diaz' bjj.
I doubt GSP would be able to put Condit away, however I think Condit has a chance at clipping GSP's chin and TKOing him.
This is an interesting fight for me.
GSP by Decision
or
Condit by TKO