The Aldo/Mendes rematch is the fight im most looking forward too right now and it totally bummed me out after it was delayed as it would have been awesome to have that following Weidman/Machida. But after seeing TJ dismantle Barao and Weidman handle Machida, seems like momentume may be in Mendes' favour .....except Mendes is not TJ or Weidman and Aldo is not Machida or even Barao.
Jack Slack has written quite a few series on Aldo in his Killing the King pieces:
Killing the King: Aldo
http://www.bloodyelbow.com/2013/2/1/3940474/killing-the-king-jose-aldo-striking-technique
And then also comparisons between Aldo and Baro in Killing the King: Barao where he calls Barao, Aldo Lite and how Aldo is a more sound and strategic fighter.
http://fightland.vice.com/blog/killing-the-king-renan-barao
I guess we could compare Mendes and TJ as well. I actually wasnt that familiar with TJ coming into the first Barao fight and still of course surprised as anyone to see that outcome. I will say that while i think TJ will win again, people did make note of TJ dominating Barao over 5 rounds but the one thing is that after the first knock down, Barao was fighting pretty heavily foggy (of course cumulative damage counts and all but just saying).
I would agree though with the view that TJ likely has Barao's #. I thought Eddie Wineland (i think it was) was doing pretty good against Barao in the striking dept but Barao's wild athletic style eventually got thru with the spinning back kick. Barao seems less technical, more wild than Aldo. Aldo, for all the criticism he's had lately for not finishing and fighting wildly enough i think has a great mix of his old ferocious combo attacks but he is more selective with them. His combos are also more sound than Barao's.
Mendes has improved a lot as well under Bang and is a stronger wrestlers to boot than TJ? I cant see Mendes doing what TJ did to Barao because for all of Mendes' improvements in striking, im not sure if his style can dominate Aldo's lke TJ to Barao although like with Weidman over Machida, perhaps Mendes' crazy wrestling game will be the real factor mixed in with his striking.
Anyone think Mendes can pull off the win here this time?
Of course he can. He is one of the most talented fighters in the world. This is one of those rematches where it works because after the challenger lost the first time he looked better than he ever has in his fights since. So it leads us to believe that he's gotten even better.
Exciting fight. Wouldn't be shocked at all to see Mendes pull it off.
I dont think anyone in the world cannot see the improvements Mendes has made since. But the question is if its enough to beat Aldo and if so, how or why?
In straight up striking, i think Aldo dominated Mendes. With Mendes' added wrestling threat, it gets more event. Aldo still has top notch tdd as well as getting back up on the ground. Is Mendes top game good enough to keep Aldo there and do damage? Mendes cardio i think is top notch though not sure if he's had a 5 rounder yet?
Can definitely see Mendes winning. 
It would be crazy if Mendes did esp if TJ beats Barao again and also considering Weidman took out Anderson and just beat Machida.
Also more interesting for the Nova Uniao vs Alpha Male rivalry. I think Aldo's chances are much better than Barao's though. Even if Aldo loses, he's still not that old and had a great run and still would be the #2 guy in the division. But he's not getting any younger either.
I guess it will be interesting to see whta kind of plan Bang has for Mendes.....whats the cornering/coaching situation on Bang and the AM guys right now anyhow? Bang was still cornering TJ and prob will for the rematch, what about Mendes?
Aldo > Alpha Male
Mendes can talk all he wants- he can't out strike Aldo and he can't keep him on the ground.
He's screwed.
Perhaps TJ may be a better matchup for Aldo than Mendes style wise? I guess we need to see this one first. TER, i agree Mendes may not be able to out strike Aldo but he may be able to out generalship him by mixing in his striking with his tds.
Wasa-B - Perhaps TJ may be a better matchup for Aldo than Mendes style wise? I guess we need to see this one first. TER, i agree Mendes may not be able to out strike Aldo but he may be able to out generalship him by mixing in his striking with his tds.Maybe, but if Urijah Faber and Frankie Edgar couldn't I have a hard time imagining that Mendes can.
Interested to see how it plays out this time. Mendes has made vast improvements for sure.
TheEmperorRises -Wasa-B - Perhaps TJ may be a better matchup for Aldo than Mendes style wise? I guess we need to see this one first. TER, i agree Mendes may not be able to out strike Aldo but he may be able to out generalship him by mixing in his striking with his tds.Maybe, but if Urijah Faber and Frankie Edgar couldn't I have a hard time imagining that Mendes can.
Mendes has a diff style from those 2 though. Perhaps Edgar may be more akin to TJ? I think Edgar is more technical striking but Mendes is stronger and a better wrestler?
Aldo's striking defence is significantly better than Barao's. His head movement is slick and small enough that he stays balanced enough to counter effectively, whereas, Barao's is more exaggerated leaving him less time to counter and unable to generate the same power.
Barao's won his fights by overwhelming his opponents with his aggressive and wild striking. But Aldo's grown into a technician who breaks his opponent down and leaves very little in the way of openings, until he tires.
Another point is that while Mendes striking has improved significantly and gained some impressive KO's, none of them have been against legit top of the division strikers. He's been knocking out wrestlers and middle of the pack guys. It's tough to say whether that his striking has improved to the level where he could compete on the feet against Aldo and honestly, he shouldn't want to. His wrestling is so much better than he should be looking to take advantage of that. Perhaps the improvement of striking, combined with his wrestling will allow him to get those td's without being KO'd this time.
Either way, this is an exciting match up and I can't wait to watch it.
Wasa-B - Perhaps TJ may be a better matchup for Aldo than Mendes style wise? I guess we need to see this one first. TER, i agree Mendes may not be able to out strike Aldo but he may be able to out generalship him by mixing in his striking with his tds.
Now that is an awesome fight. Speed and fast movement v Power and Utilitarian economy of movement.
Great comments Zeph, thanks.
There are some good analogies between the two that go beyond their wrestling backgrounds.
Remember TJ got BLASTED out by Dodson. He went to thr drawing board and made massive improvements that led to what we saw in the Barao performance.
It seems Chad is doing something similar. He got blasted out by Aldo and has since shown massive improvements.
The primary reason Brazilians have been losing belts left and right is their stubbornness. They stick to their style and rarely if ever evolve.
That allows students of the game to study, study, study.
VinegarStrokes -Did you see.how he spotted Cody Mckenzie? Aldo has no chance if Chad can beat a great strikers like that, and Yaotzin Meza. I know people say that Mendes hasn't beaten a top guy convincingly, but he destroyed Nik Lentz. He had awesome ground and pound and sub attempts. He almost finished Lentz multiple times. I don't know why the ref didn't stop it.
Interested to see how it plays out this time. Mendes has made vast improvements for sure.
eljamaiquino -This right here... Mendes has shown vast improvements while tearing up fellow title contenders. No wonder he's got Aldo worried.VinegarStrokes -Did you see.how he spotted Cody Mckenzie? Aldo has no chance if Chad can beat a great strikers like that, and Yaotzin Meza. I know people say that Mendes hasn't beaten a top guy convincingly, but he destroyed Nik Lentz. He had awesome ground and pound and sub attempts. He almost finished Lentz multiple times. I don't know why the ref didn't stop it.
Interested to see how it plays out this time. Mendes has made vast improvements for sure.
ausgepicht - There are some good analogies between the two that go beyond their wrestling backgrounds.
Remember TJ got BLASTED out by Dodson. He went to thr drawing board and made massive improvements that led to what we saw in the Barao performance.
It seems Chad is doing something similar. He got blasted out by Aldo and has since shown massive improvements.
The primary reason Brazilians have been losing belts left and right is their stubbornness. They stick to their style and rarely if ever evolve.
That allows students of the game to study, study, study.
As Jack's piece noted, Aldo's jab has improved. Also, as most now see and also unfairly imo criticize, Aldo has "evolved" into a much more strategic and measured fighter. His style is more/less the same but he isnt as wild and as he's mentioned himself, as opponents have studied him more, his style has "evolved" as a result. Its not a radical change but its a bit different to TJ and Mendes' improvements because they were not at Aldo's level and were much more one dimensional as wrestlers. Aldo's game is as good as it gets, not to say there is no room for improvement but he hasnt had to "evolve" as much because he already had.
Also, he's shown his offensive wrestling in spots as well all the way thru from Hominick to TKZ (when he was injured and needed to resort to plan B) and also recently against Lamas (a wrestler himself). Id say he can mix it up and set up his tds pretty dam well.
Chimp Strength -eljamaiquino -This right here... Mendes has shown vast improvements while tearing up fellow title contenders. No wonder he's got Aldo worried.VinegarStrokes -Did you see.how he spotted Cody Mckenzie? Aldo has no chance if Chad can beat a great strikers like that, and Yaotzin Meza. I know people say that Mendes hasn't beaten a top guy convincingly, but he destroyed Nik Lentz. He had awesome ground and pound and sub attempts. He almost finished Lentz multiple times. I don't know why the ref didn't stop it.
Interested to see how it plays out this time. Mendes has made vast improvements for sure.
Im rooting for Aldo but would be the first one to admit Mendes has made vast improvements. Id say his KO of Guida may be the most impressive since Guida i dont think had ever been KOed (Guida recently just got tapped for the first time too). But its still fair to point out that none of the guys Mendes has beat since is in Aldo's league or even top 5/elite.
However, TJ hadnt really either. But unless Mendes has made even more leaps since his Lentz fight (where iirc he was sick but still managed to dominate), its tough to see Mendes running circles around Aldo like TJ did to Barao. And again, Aldo's game is diff (better) than Barao's anyhow.
Aldo's leg kicks are going to be the biggest deterrent to approaching a fight with him in the same way as TJ fought Barao. You can only take so many before your movement is going to be significantly hampered. Perhap's Weidman's and Longo approach of focusing on checking while pressuring Aldo would be better. However, If it was me, I'd be telling Mendes to setup takedown's with his strikes and then gnp as much as he can.
Another great post. Quick thought and something that was mentioned prior to the first fight was the flipside of kicks being that they can be countered by tds.
But again, the way and speed in which Aldo delivers the leg kicks is nearly unparralled in the game. Also, I think Mendes may be able to pose some similar striking/wrestling double threat that Weidman does but he has not shown the same sense of distance management that Weidman has, has not shown his striking against the striking of Weidman's opponents (Anderson, Machida) and a big one: Mendes is significantly shorter than Aldo and without checking his reach, im willing to bet that his is shorter than Aldo's. Weidman has longer reach than both Anderson and Machida.
From what i recall of the new Mendes, he has shown a much improved striking game, one that is dynamic and has big power with but not the same kind of technical style of a TJ or Weidman? But each has to find a game that suits their strengths, I think Mendes seems to be doing that and its worked but the question is whether it will work on Aldo.
I really cant see Mendes coming forward with that steady kind of pressure that Weidman does on Aldo. But i do agree that the best path is to use his striking to set up the tds....what he was completely lacking in his first fight with Aldo.
The one flipside is that, and Jack's article is a good reminder of this: Aldo had a lot of success punishing guys who would come at him with tds or trying to close the distance to strike against Faber, Brown, Manny. He made great use of uppercuts and knees, something he also capitalized on Mendes with. Mendes' striking and wrestling probably is greater than any of those guys prior with the exception of Edgar who as i mentioned i think is the more technical striker over Mendes but that Mendes is probably the better wrestler.
I think we'll have to see Mendes trying to open Aldo up with the striking game for his big dynamic tds. But the current patient Aldo may be harder to do this against than the killer Aldo of before?