Rather than just bitching about guys distorting events from the past and their significance, I thought it would be cool to INTENTIONALLY go back and examine a fight while changing one realistic variable. To watch the match, and then think about what may have happened differently had things played out with that one factor adjusted.
So rather than deceiving and misleading newer fans by belittling the accomplishments of great athletes, my goal here is to try my best to predict how a match could be radically different based solely on the circumstances surrounding it.
Quinton Jackson VS Murilo Bustamante Pride Total Elimination 2003
Backround:
Murilo Bustamante was one of the absolute best at 185lbs, even though he hadnt campaigned officially in that class for very long. Initially, he gained fame in hardcore fan circles for surviving and many would argue neutralizing the fearsome Tom Erikson in a marathon draw.
He had his first career defeat against Chuck Liddell in the UFC, in a fight many felt was a draw or even should have gone his way. It was very even but Bustamante adopted the NHB strategy of many BJJ men in that he would voluntarily drop after eating a hard shot to avoid being dazed and open for a followup KO shot.
After that loss he bounces back and stopped Dave Menne and Lindland and stood as the MW champion of the UFC. He left the UFC during a contract dispute over money, BEFORE that was the cool thing to do.
Rampage's stock was very high going into this tournament. After a rocky start with the Pride organization that saw him submitted by legend Kazushi Sakuraba and DQ'd against Matsui, he began finding his groove. Upset stoppage victories over former UFC HW champion Randleman(in a very strategic and tactical performance) and NHB legend Vovchanchyn had Rampage in everyone's spotlight as a guy to watch in the division.
Imediately before the tournament Rampage scored one of the only victories on record in history via submission from knees to the body. He did this against Mikhail Illoukine from Russia.
The "wild card": Jackson is originally supposed to face Ricardo Arona. The week before, in the final training session before leaving for Japan, Arona injures his ankle. Teammate Bustamante has been training with Arona and feels he is good enough shape to step in on a week's notice. Rampage is facing a similar opponent yet one with a different approach. Smaller, less powerful, but more seasoned. Better boxing, more submission savy.
Bizzarely, Jackson weighs in at 200 to Bustamante's 204.
Match synopsis:
Murilo looks very long and lanky in the staredown when brought to the center. He is also clearly taller than Jackson. Bustamante is wearing the naked shorts and Rampage keeps his chain on until the match is about to begin.
Busta jumps guard off the clinch and Rampage lays him on the ropes so as not to waste energy. Murilo knows he is light years better on the ground and probably doesnt want to waste energy trying to take down Jackson.
Within seconds of it hitting the ground, Bustamante spins into a belly down armbar. Page steps over, spins and slams his way free.
Busta takes his down from a clinch trip and Quinton falls through the ropes and has to be pulled back in. Murilo's wrestling is really good, not as explosive as Arona's, but you dont take down Lindland and Rampage via luck.
Rampage uses his core to violently lift both of them up off the mat but he's caught in a deep arm-in guillotine. In an attempt to escape, he throws himself to the mat, but passes to the wrong side. He's in real trouble now.
He eventually clear the hand off his neck. And alerts the ref that his shorts have slid down.
A nice, SIXTY SECOND BREAK follows. Staff try and tighten the shorts, Busta shakes out his arms. Arona is pissed, shouting from ringside.
Page starts going berserk, steps it up now. Hard knees.
Busta is missing his TD attempts. Stuck pulling half-guard.
The 10 minute first round round ends, Rampage helps Busta up.
Rampage is being systematic: get in a few shots, stand back up. Heavy knees to the body force Busta to drop again.
Murilo looks really sharp in the boxing exchanges. Crisp and straight punches. Rampage isnt landing much there.
A rare heavy low kick from Jackson lands hard. The round ends.
Some good exchanges to begin the third and final round. Jackson's leg kicks(which I dont recall seeing much of before nor since this fight) are really on point. Heavy, and he's slipping them in with no defense from Bustamante.
Busta is tired. Resorts to self-downing again. Same thing that cost him the Chuck fight, imo.
Minor GnP, not a whole lot happening.
Round ends with Rampage on top in guard, Busta is working overhooks/grips.
Judge 1 RAMPAGE
Judge 2 MURILO
Judge 3 RAMPAGE
SHO-SA.............QUINTON RAMPAGE JACKSON!!!!!!!
What I would change: Arona gets hurt 8 weeks out instead of 1. Murilo has full camp and has his usual gas tank. Especially for the 10 minute first round Pride implemented.
Prediction: With the confidence and preparation of a full camp knowing he would be fighting, and WHO he would be fighting, Busta could commit to more takedowns and be a little more aggresive. With the two "catch" attempts he had in the first period, theres no reason not to think he could have had an additional 1-2 in the other rounds.
Jackson has been subbed once in his entire career. While not technically savy compared to ground specialists, his physicality and instincts allow him to escape some very hairy situations(Lindland's choke). While a legit and highly technical old-school black belt, Busta probably wasnt going to be able to tap Rampage, even at 100%.
However with the ability to threaten more submissions like he did in round 1, Busta could have quite conceivable parlayed those scrambles into more dominant top positions. And kept Jackson there, building up both "points" in the judge's eyes and time to threaten furth submission attacks.
Along with that, the increase in conditioning would have almost certainly let him press more striking engagments on the feet. His boxing looked sharp but he could have upped the volume of strikes. Jackson wasnt' shooting. And didnt seem overly concerned with getting the fight to the ground.
I think that with a full camp behind him, Murilo could have either taken the split decision or even comfortably won the unanimous.
As history played out though, the correct decision was rendered.
After this match Rampage goes on to "Final Conflict" where he defeats Chuck Liddell in an epic match. He then is himself TKOd by Wanderlei Silva in the final match for the first of 2 times.
Busta went on a downslide after this fight. Lost his next 2 to Henderson via a questionable stoppage and a decision to Nakamura.
Very nice post Helwig. I always enjoy your posts and it's great to hear insights of MMA from people that were watching at the time.
Keep it up Helwig. Love it. 
awesome thread helwig
pops in Pride Total Elimination 2003 DVD
Great post. I'll probably watch this when I get home.
fucking great post, from a classic
way to go
awesome.
ttt
I actually think it could possibly have gone differently had the officials known how to tie up a pair of shorts in one go - clearly an incredibly difficult task!
Rampage looked extremely winded from that sub attempt.
Great post Helwig.
Good to have such a technical breakdown from a guy who has the perspective of the event as it happened combined with the actual fight record to back up your opinions.
Trying to think of another good one to do. Theres tons of good fights but you need a solid key detail that could totally change the outcome without being ridiculous.
Ref saved rampage from that guilletine.
Busta was visibly drained after tat.
HELWIG - Trying to think of another good one to do. Theres tons of good fights but you need a solid key detail that could totally change the outcome without being ridiculous.
Nog-Ricco?
Wandy-Mezger?
Cool thread. That was from the first Pride ppv I ever ordered. I still remember the match pretty well.
Great stuff, Helwig.
HELWIG - After this match Rampage goes on to "Final Conflict" where he defeats Chuck Liddell in an epic match. He then is himself TKOd by Wanderlei Silva in the final match for the first of 2 times.
Busta went on a downslide after this fight. Lost his next 2 to Henderson via a questionable stoppage and a decision to Nakamura.
I totally forgot that Nakamura fight. Wondering if it was like the Vovchanchyn/Nakamura fight -- which I found myself trying to forget as it happened.
But I do recall that second Henderson/Bustamante bout was a split decision loss for Busta. I had Murilo winning that fight -- jabbing well, getting the takedowns and passing guard repeatedly; but Dan got the benefit of the doubt for trying to finish with his big right hand.
IIRC Sperry actually mentioned in an interview that BTT wasn't going to complain about this, but were instead to focus on creating different strategies to accomodate the different PRIDE scoring system. I thought that was cool. If I'm remembering right and it happened.
I am old.
TH
for later