Scientists 95% sure humans are the reason for.....

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2398753/Why-HAS-global-warming-slowed-Scientists-admit-dont-know-why.html

 

Why HAS global warming slowed? Scientists admit they don't know why - but are '95% sure' humans are to blame for climate change

 

  • An intergovernmental study claims scientists are 95 per cent sure that humans are to blame for climate change
  • Scientists believe volcanic ash and more heat being absorbed by oceans could explain why global warming seems to have decelerated in recent times
  • Governments will use the final report to work out how to invest in renewable energy and protect coastal regions from flooding
 

Scientists are struggling to explain why global warming seems to have slowed down in the last decade in a leaked draft of the UN's next big report on climate change.

The intergovernmental study claims scientists are 95 per cent sure that humans are to blame for climate change, but presently they have not come up with a unified reason for why global surface temperatures have not risen as predicted in the past 15 years.

According to the unpublished draft document, scientists believe volcanic ash, less heat from the sun and more heat being absorbed by oceans could explain the mystery.

 
Scientists have come up with various explanations of why global warming seems to have slowed down

An intergovernmental report claims scientists are 95 per cent sure that humans are to blame for climate change (by burning fossil fuels, pictured) but presently have not come up with a unified reason for why global surface temperatures have not risen as predicted in the past 15 years

 

 

Set for release in October 2014, the AR5 report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) includes a number of explanations for the slow-down in global warming.

The Met Office told Fox News that while global temperatures rose quickly during the 1970s, the trend appears to have become flat during the last 15 years, with some parties claiming global warming has stopped all together.

Global temperatures have continued to rise, but at a slower rate since 1998, despite greenhouse gas concentrations peaking due to more emissions created by increasingly-industrialised emerging nations.

The draft reportedly uses complex computer models looking at lots of factors to conclude temperatures could increase by anything from a fraction of one degree Celcius to almost five degrees this century.

Reuters environment correspondent Alister Doyle who said: 'Scientists believe causes could include: greater-than-expected quantities of ash from volcanoes, which dims sunlight; a decline in heat from the sun during a current 11-year solar cycle; more heat being absorbed by the deep oceans; or the possibility that the climate may be less sensitive than expected to a build-up of carbon dioxide.'

 
Scientists believe causes of the slow-down could include greater-than-expected quantities of ash from volcanoes

Scientists believe causes of the slow-down could include greater-than-expected quantities of ash from volcanoes (pictured), which dims sunlight and a decline in heat from the sun during a current 11-year solar cycle

 

The report supposes the slowing of global warming is due to all these factors in equal measure.

Gabriele Hegerl, a professor at Edinburgh University told the news agency that minor contributions from different sources have combined to slow the rising temperatures in recent years, or the micro trend could is simply a blip in the larger trend.

According to the draft study, scientists are struggling to predict the impact that global warming will have in certain regions, which is not helpful for government planners, who use the IPCC report to inform policies.

Governments use the report to work out how to invest in renewable energy, protect coastal regions from flooding and how to ensure a good supply of food.

While certain areas of the report are currently a little vague, it reportedly says scientists are now 95 per cent certain that humans, and particularly the burning of fossil fuels, are responsible for global warming.

The number is up from the last report published in 2007, which was 90 per cent sure climate change was caused by humans. The 2001 report's figure was 66 per cent and around 50 per cent in 1995, showing that more scientists have embraced the theory of global warming.

 
more heat being absorbed by deep oceans (pictured) could explain the slow-down in global warming

Scientists also said more heat being absorbed by deep oceans (pictured) could explain the slow-down in global warming in the last 15 years, which some believe could be a blip in a larger trend where the Earth's temperature could rise up to 5 degrees Celsius by the end of the century

 

Climate skeptics have accused the IPCC of finding figures to support the concept of climate change, but the UN has told Fox News that it is too early to draw conclusions from its draft publication.

The international body said the text will probably change before publication in response to suggestions from governments and scientists at a four-day approval session taking place at the end of September.

The UN said: 'It is therefore premature and could be misleading to attempt to draw conclusions from it.'

When published, the AR5 report, which is the first of three to be released in 2013 and 2014, will likely face intense scrutiny from scientists and climate change skeptics after the 2007 report was widely criticised for sloppy mathematics, including the claim that the Himalayas could melt by 2035 due to global warming.

Nearly 200 governments have signed up to trying to limit global warming to below 2 degrees Celsius above per-industrial times, which is seen as the point where dangerous changes including floods from rising sea levels and droughts that threaten food production, could occur.

 

Is it just me or are scientists really dumb Phone Post

cut their government funding and 95% of scientists won't give a shit about climate change

Im pro global warming.

Its time we got rid of some of these animals. I want me some extinct animal souvenirs. Phone Post

YasielPuigedMyPiehole -
OG Wan Kenobi - 


cut their government funding and 95% of scientists won't give a shit about climate change


ding fucking ding. Eart has been around millions of years but we think we know what the fuck is happening because we have a little over 100 years of data. Give me a fucking break. Too small a sample size
They have historical data as well. Supposedly, they've figured out a certain pattern of warming and cooling that's been going on for a very very long time. Phone Post 3.0

Saying "scientists are 95% sure" is not the same as saying "95% of scientists are sure"

How exactly do you determine your level of sureness?

derp science t'ain't real

I am sure it's humans that brought earth into and out of an ice age. not natural occurrences. SUVs

YasielPuigedMyPiehole - 
OG Wan Kenobi - 


cut their government funding and 95% of scientists won't give a shit about climate change


ding fucking ding. Eart has been around millions of years but we think we know what the fuck is happening because we have a little over 100 years of data. Give me a fucking break. Too small a sample size

It's about 20-30 years of satellite data, maybe 150 years of instrument data and the rest is proxies from ice cores and the like.

These 'scientists' should really take a look at sun activity data.

Keep if professional - These 'scientists' should really take a look at sun activity data.

http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleListURL&_method=list&_ArticleListID=-339370577&_sort=r&_st=13&view=c&_acct=C000228598&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=cc0ab41bb005f2d059ffc91f0a688e3d&searchtype=a

Cult of personaliy with a religion behind it. Propaganda. We cause a lot of issues, including with the weather. There is truth to this, but it is expanded upon to further a faith bases agenda, which is ironic considering most scientists are atheists. If we were truly the primary cause ans not our Sun the methods to correct the problems would not all go into financial gain and governmentenral control. Phone Post

Yeah, that was us punching holes in the ozone layer and what not.

the words "scientists" "the UN", and "the Daily Mail"  should never be used together without somebody fucking a chicken while wearing a clown costume.

CavemanDave -

the words "scientists" "the UN", and "the Daily Mail"  should never be used together without somebody fucking a chicken while wearing a clown costume.

Dead chicken or live chicken? Phone Post

Haven't really looked into the claims, it brings up an interesting question though. What level of prestige do you need to reach to be able to speak for SCIENCE?? Also LOL at all the OGers that know better than these "dumb" scientists.

scientists make shit up to get funding. 

Cotton - 

Cult of personaliy with a religion behind it. Propaganda. We cause a lot of issues, including with the weather. There is truth to this, but it is expanded upon to further a faith bases agenda, which is ironic considering most scientists are atheists. If we were truly the primary cause ans not our Sun the methods to correct the problems would not all go into financial gain and governmentenral control. Phone Post



"If we were truly the primary cause ans not our Sun"

If solar irradiance was the primary cause there would not be trends for night time temperature increase and temperature distribution through the atmosphere we are seeing.

Global Warming advocates cleverly covered their ass years ago by quickly pivoting to "global climate change"

I had a college professor who was big time into this stuff and I asked him why the warming stopped and he explained that it wasn't called "global warming" but "global climate change"

It seems to me that people are relabeling the problem to match the data. Rather than let the data dictate the label.