Study: Herd immunity threshold not too far off

https://www.nottingham.ac.uk/news/herd-immunity-threshold-could-be-lower-according-to-new-study

According to their new mathematical model, far less people need to be infected with COVID-19 in order to reach herd immunity levels.

That model, which was specially designed just for this study, categorizes people into different groups based on age and social activity levels. Once those factors are incorporated into herd immunity projections, the percentage of a population that would have to become immune drops from 60% to 43%.

However, the study’s authors caution their calculations are not exact; that 43% number should not be looked at as an exact value, or even the best possible estimate.

The authors also note that people who are more socially active are more likely to be infected with COVID-19. Similarly, they are more likely to pass the virus on to others.

 

original study in Science: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/06/22/science.abc6810

Let it run its course. Hundreds of millions die from TB and there was never a call for masks and global shutdowns for a real pandemic like TB. We got lucky and they didn’t design this in the lab to be very dangerous. Don’t allow them to use this as an excuse for the reset. 

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ttt

What's the Herd Immunity Threshold for the COVID-19 Coronavirus?

 
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Looney Ronulan Paultard - 

Let it run its course. Hundreds of millions die from TB and there was never a call for masks and global shutdowns for a real pandemic like TB. We got lucky and they didn’t design this in the lab to be very dangerous. Don’t allow them to use this as an excuse for the reset. 


Hundreds of millions don't die from TB. In 2018 1.5 million died (mostly in developing countries - and is a major cause of death among those with HIV) and that was over the course of a year. In a few months we've already closed in on half a million dead from Covid19. 


There is also a vaccine for TB.


Also - (and this is super important) - It doesn't behave in the same way as Covid. 1.8 Billion people have the TB bacteria, most of whom don't ever develop symptoms or contract the disease. 


So besides exaggerating the fatality rate by a factor of 100, you're comparing apples and oranges here.


Now even though we're at half a million worldwide fatalities and more than 120k in the U.S alone cases are surging (especially in places that think masks are bullshit and we should just open up).


I want to ask NOW what you think would be an acceptable number of dead people to take the disease seriously. 120k isn't serious enough apparently, so I want to know how many people should Covid19 kill over the course of a year for you to believe that it's serious?

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robert bentley -
Looney Ronulan Paultard - 

Let it run its course. Hundreds of millions die from TB and there was never a call for masks and global shutdowns for a real pandemic like TB. We got lucky and they didn’t design this in the lab to be very dangerous. Don’t allow them to use this as an excuse for the reset. 


Hundreds of millions don't die from TB. In 2018 1.5 million died (mostly in developing countries - and is a major cause of death among those with HIV) and that was over the course of a year. In a few months we've already closed in on half a million dead from Covid19. 


There is also a vaccine for TB.


Also - (and this is super important) - It doesn't behave in the same way as Covid. 1.8 Billion people have the TB bacteria, most of whom don't ever develop symptoms or contract the disease. 


So besides exaggerating the fatality rate by a factor of 100, you're comparing apples and oranges here.


Now even though we're at half a million worldwide fatalities and more than 120k in the U.S alone cases are surging (especially in places that think masks are bullshit and we should just open up).


I want to ask NOW what you think would be an acceptable number of dead people to take the disease seriously. 120k isn't serious enough apparently, so I want to know how many people should Covid19 kill over the course of a year for you to believe that it's serious?

Yes, hundreds of millions do die of TB in this century alone. Billions of people have died of TB throughout history. It is the number one infectious disease. 
 


Covid death totals are inflated due to false reporting. Covid will never come close to TB even with fradulent death numbers. 
 


The TB vaccine is not always effective. It has become vaccine resistant for some. 
 


Covid is real, highly infectious and can kill a very small percentage of the population. We are approaching herd immunity and a complete shutdown of western businesses and draconian mask laws and travel restrictions will not eliminate the virus. The virus is here to stay regardless of how many years you keep people locked up inside. 
 


  https://www.tballiance.org/why-new-tb-drugs/global-pandemic

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Looney Ronulan Paultard - 
robert bentley -
Looney Ronulan Paultard - 

Let it run its course. Hundreds of millions die from TB and there was never a call for masks and global shutdowns for a real pandemic like TB. We got lucky and they didn’t design this in the lab to be very dangerous. Don’t allow them to use this as an excuse for the reset. 


Hundreds of millions don't die from TB. In 2018 1.5 million died (mostly in developing countries - and is a major cause of death among those with HIV) and that was over the course of a year. In a few months we've already closed in on half a million dead from Covid19. 


There is also a vaccine for TB.


Also - (and this is super important) - It doesn't behave in the same way as Covid. 1.8 Billion people have the TB bacteria, most of whom don't ever develop symptoms or contract the disease. 


So besides exaggerating the fatality rate by a factor of 100, you're comparing apples and oranges here.


Now even though we're at half a million worldwide fatalities and more than 120k in the U.S alone cases are surging (especially in places that think masks are bullshit and we should just open up).


I want to ask NOW what you think would be an acceptable number of dead people to take the disease seriously. 120k isn't serious enough apparently, so I want to know how many people should Covid19 kill over the course of a year for you to believe that it's serious?

Yes, hundreds of millions do die of TB in this century alone. Billions of people have died of TB throughout history. It is the number one infectious disease. 
 


Covid death totals are inflated due to false reporting. Covid will never come close to TB even with fradulent death numbers. 
 


The TB vaccine is not always effective. It has become vaccine resistant for some. 
 


Covid is real, highly infectious and can kill a very small percentage of the population. We are approaching herd immunity and a complete shutdown of western businesses and draconian mask laws and travel restrictions will not eliminate the virus. The virus is here to stay regardless of how many years you keep people locked up inside. 
 


  https://www.tballiance.org/why-new-tb-drugs/global-pandemic


Ooohh - so you're comparing what a disease did over a century to one that's just *started in present day.


And you're posting that as if this is some sort of indication of what exactly? How badly do you think Covid19 would have ravaged the world in 1890?


The Covid totals are likely UNDER reported and the whole "false reporting" thing in reality amounts to nothing more than a rounding error if that. It's simply NOT the case that it's trivial to deaths as covid.


https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/


 


 

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"Covid is real, highly infectious and can kill a very small percentage of the population. We are approaching herd immunity and a complete shutdown of western businesses and draconian mask laws and travel restrictions will not eliminate the virus. The virus is here to stay regardless of how many years you keep people locked up inside. "

Draconian mask laws? Are you serious?

Does international news get to the United States at all? There are countries that have opened up already. They've eliminated the virus through behavioural means. The biggest advantage of course is that they have a population that's more likely to be filled with people who didn't fail science.

Oh - and the other thing in common is they had wide adoption of mask wearing.

Why do you think Covid has killed more than 120K in the United States and is soon getting worse, but Japan - with a very densely populated society and generally looser lockdown rules less?

Why is it you look to one of the worst countries per-capita (fatality and case wise) as a model for how to handle Corona and not a country like Japan, or the numerous other countries having a far better time dealing with the disease?

And your continual denial that Covid deaths are really covid deaths because of some conspiracy theory means that even if the numbers of dead in the US reach more than 500k you'll still deny it. 

Is there *anything* that could be shown to you that would convince you that Covid19 is a serious disease? Any evidence at all that you would accept?

 

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No country is close to 43% so whether its 43 or 60 is academic for the moment

YOU FUCKING IDIOTS. ALL OF YOU. DO YOU NOT REALIZE THAT THIS DISEASE HAS KILLED OVER 120 MILLION? DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND THAT?

It’s not going away. Rip the band-aid off and get it over with. Stay home if you want. 

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43% would certainly be a lot better than the 60-70% that is generally accepted. But we are still at only 5% nationwide as of a couple of weeks ago.  Of course there are area like new York that were at 25% back in April. Strangely enough though I can't find any subsequent numbers after April 23

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/college-students-busted-throwing-covid-19-parties-infect-all-their-friends

Herd immunity rapidly approaching ^^^