Study shows underreporting of covid-19 deaths

Question: Did more all-cause deaths occur during the first months of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in the United States compared with the same months during previous years?

Findings: In this cohort study, the number of deaths due to any cause increased by approximately 122?000 from March 1 to May 30, 2020, which is 28% higher than the reported number of COVID-19 deaths.

Meaning Official tallies of deaths due to COVID-19 underestimate the full increase in deaths associated with the pandemic in many states. 

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamainternalmedicine/fullarticle/2767980

 

Approx. 122,000 more Americans died than could have been expected (no matter the cause) in three months. 

Meh.  Not really sure what that say/ means.  But lots of people have died, 3-4x annualized compared to the flu in an average year, and that's after we freaked out and locked everything down.

Wear a mask.

Fuck man, if the CDC said the flu was 3 or 4x worse this year and it would help if everyone wore a mask, wouldn't you?  I would.

Either that study is a few weeks old or its another rehash trying to fool people with an inflammatory title. There could be any number of reasons for the difference this year compared to last. Something that isn't even in the top 5 causes of death is more than likely not the reason. 

Tight Butthole -

Either that study is a few weeks old or its another rehash trying to fool people with an inflammatory title. There could be any number of reasons for the difference this year compared to last. Something that isn't even in the top 5 causes of death is more than likely not the reason. 

Right, a deadly global pandemic which locked down almost the whole world sure can't be the reason for all the excess deaths. 

1 Like

People started talking about excess deaths only when total deaths had increased beyond previous years - this took until may in the UK. 
 

deaths are now down on previous years every week for the last 4. Essentially there was a massive jump where 10s of thousands of old folks died a couple of months earlier than what they otherwise would have done. Simple as that. 
 

Wave 2 is coming irrespective of reality, we’re just awaiting the next flu season so deaths start to increment. 
 

stay alert, and wear a mask. 

leaot -
Tight Butthole -

Either that study is a few weeks old or its another rehash trying to fool people with an inflammatory title. There could be any number of reasons for the difference this year compared to last. Something that isn't even in the top 5 causes of death is more than likely not the reason. 

Right, a deadly global pandemic which locked down almost the whole world sure can't be the reason for all the excess deaths. 

I Will correct myself after deciding to look it up and covid is number 3 this year. But still nowhere even close to heart disease and cancer.


The article I read saying the same thing as this one only compared this years numbers to last years though, which is not enough data to make any inferences on. Youd have to compare a large number of years and figure out the average variance between years to determine if this year is outside the standard deviation. Since the article I read didn't do that I didn't consider this claim to be based on statistics. If im wrong about this one though I'd like to know.

Tight Butthole -
leaot -
Tight Butthole -

Either that study is a few weeks old or its another rehash trying to fool people with an inflammatory title. There could be any number of reasons for the difference this year compared to last. Something that isn't even in the top 5 causes of death is more than likely not the reason. 

Right, a deadly global pandemic which locked down almost the whole world sure can't be the reason for all the excess deaths. 

I Will correct myself after deciding to look it up and covid is number 3 this year. But still nowhere even close to heart disease and cancer.


The article I read saying the same thing as this one only compared this years numbers to last years though, which is not enough data to make any inferences on. Youd have to compare a large number of years and figure out the average variance between years to determine if this year is outside the standard deviation. Since the article I read didn't do that I didn't consider this claim to be based on statistics. If im wrong about this one though I'd like to know.

Interesting. The study I posted took five years. Which is not that many too. 


"We fit Poisson regression models to the weekly state-level death counts from January 5, 2015, to January 25, 2020"


But it includes the worst flu season (2018) in recent history. 

arc123 -

People started talking about excess deaths only when total deaths had increased beyond previous years - this took until may in the UK. 
 


deaths are now down on previous years every week for the last 4. Essentially there was a massive jump where 10s of thousands of old folks died a couple of months earlier than what they otherwise would have done. Simple as that. 
 


Wave 2 is coming irrespective of reality, we’re just awaiting the next flu season so deaths start to increment. 
 


stay alert, and wear a mask. 

It's going to be interesting to have all the data for the full year, right now as this is ongoing there is no real point to declare anything, it's all basically just educated guess work.


Sweden for example had an idea how to approach this and in the beginning it looked very promising, as many threads about this topic on the OG show. When you look at the numbers now, not so much anymore. 

Can someone please explain the math on this? This is taken directly from article:

There were approximately 781,?000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122?300 more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95?235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020.

So, if there were 781,000 deaths between March 1 - May 30, and this is 122,300 more deaths than expected, then the expected deaths during this time period would be 658,700. Let's compare this number to historical figures.

The most recent year I found for US deaths was 2017. During this year 2,813,500 people died. Now I can't fine the 2018/2019 numbers, but the numbers have been slightly steadily increasing every year for several years. So even though 2020 would undoubtedly be predicted to have more deaths than 2017, we will use the 2017 numbers since they are conservative and we have a month by moth breakdown.

Here is a month by month breakdown of 2017 deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm

As it states, the average daily death count is 7,708. And while you can't tell the exact number, you can tell that May is slightly below the 7,708, April is right on the number, and March is slightly above. It would appear that the average for March-May would be right at the 7,708 number or a little higher, but we will use the 7,708 again to be conservative.

So when we do the math - 7,708(average deaths per day) * 91 (days in March,April,May) = 701,428.
Again this number was using conservative data and likely should be higher.

Now we take 781,000 (actual deaths) - 701,428 (estimated deaths) = 79,572 deaths above predicted.

Compare this to the reported Covid deaths during this period (March 1 - May 30) of 95,235 and you come out with a -15,663.

I'm sure I must be wrong somehow, but would love for someone to prove it wrong.

* I actually found the number for 2018 deaths of 2,839,205. Slightly more than 2017 as expected. So unless there would be a rational reason for expected deaths to have decreased dramatically from 2018 to 2020, I just do see how it adds up.

Trust -
KennyPowers55 - Can someone please explain the math on this? This is taken directly from article:

There were approximately 781,?000 total deaths in the United States from March 1 to May 30, 2020, representing 122?300 more deaths than would typically be expected at that time of year. There were 95?235 reported deaths officially attributed to COVID-19 from March 1 to May 30, 2020.

So, if there were 781,000 deaths between March 1 - May 30, and this is 122,300 more deaths than expected, then the expected deaths during this time period would be 658,700. Let's compare this number to historical figures.

The most recent year I found for US deaths was 2017. During this year 2,813,500 people died. Now I can't fine the 2018/2019 numbers, but the numbers have been slightly steadily increasing every year for several years. So even though 2020 would undoubtedly be predicted to have more deaths than 2017, we will use the 2017 numbers since they are conservative and we have a month by moth breakdown.

Here is a month by month breakdown of 2017 deaths:

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm

As it states, the average daily death count is 7,708. And while you can't tell the exact number, you can tell that May is slightly below the 7,708, April is right on the number, and March is slightly above. It would appear that the average for March-May would be right at the 7,708 number or a little higher, but we will use the 7,708 again to be conservative.

So when we do the math - 7,708(average deaths per day) * 91 (days in March,April,May) = 701,428.
Again this number was using conservative data and likely should be higher.

Now we take 781,000 (actual deaths) - 701,428 (estimated deaths) = 79,572 deaths above predicted.

Compare this to the reported Covid deaths during this period (March 1 - May 30) of 95,235 and you come out with a -15,663.

I'm sure I must be wrong somehow, but would love for someone to prove it wrong.

* I actually found the number for 2018 deaths of 2,839,205. Slightly more than 2017 as expected. So unless there would be a rational reason for expected deaths to have decreased dramatically from 2018 to 2020, I just do see how it adds up.

One thing you may be missing is that, due to the closures everywhere and people staying home, there have been fewer motor vehicle deaths.   

Less people dying of global warming now because less fossil fuels being used, comrade.

leaot -
arc123 -

People started talking about excess deaths only when total deaths had increased beyond previous years - this took until may in the UK. 
 


deaths are now down on previous years every week for the last 4. Essentially there was a massive jump where 10s of thousands of old folks died a couple of months earlier than what they otherwise would have done. Simple as that. 
 


Wave 2 is coming irrespective of reality, we’re just awaiting the next flu season so deaths start to increment. 
 


stay alert, and wear a mask. 

It's going to be interesting to have all the data for the full year, right now as this is ongoing there is no real point to declare anything, it's all basically just educated guess work.


Sweden for example had an idea how to approach this and in the beginning it looked very promising, as many threads about this topic on the OG show. When you look at the numbers now, not so much anymore. 

9 of the top 10 leading causes of death are down vastly (other than covid) - coincidence? 
 


seems to me that other deaths are being attributed to covid. 

arc123 -
leaot -
arc123 -

People started talking about excess deaths only when total deaths had increased beyond previous years - this took until may in the UK. 
 


deaths are now down on previous years every week for the last 4. Essentially there was a massive jump where 10s of thousands of old folks died a couple of months earlier than what they otherwise would have done. Simple as that. 
 


Wave 2 is coming irrespective of reality, we’re just awaiting the next flu season so deaths start to increment. 
 


stay alert, and wear a mask. 

It's going to be interesting to have all the data for the full year, right now as this is ongoing there is no real point to declare anything, it's all basically just educated guess work.


Sweden for example had an idea how to approach this and in the beginning it looked very promising, as many threads about this topic on the OG show. When you look at the numbers now, not so much anymore. 

9 of the top 10 leading causes of death are down vastly (other than covid) - coincidence? 
 


seems to me that other deaths are being attributed to covid. 

I would say people with these risk factors or sicknesses are dying earlier than they would because of covid.