I keep seeing thread on this, so I will be kind enough to break down the entirity of this fight for you all. I agree, its an interesting fight, with two undefeated bulls, but to me a pretty clear style matchup. The whole fight swings on:
That's right, the fence.
Everything else is secondary. If you believe that Rashad can out-maneuver Lyoto and trap him, he's a decent underdog bet. If you don't believe he will be able to trap against the fence, don't touch him with a 10 foot pole.
Rashad can't outstrike Lyoto, and while Lyoto can submit Rashad I would place it as extremely unlikely. So Rashad's only chance at winning rounds or getting a TKO involves his use of the finite space of the octagon.
Personally, I think in a five round fight Rashad can get it against the fence once or twice, particularly in the later rounds, but it won't be enough to get the decision.
Cutting off an octagon, with wide corners, from Lyoto Machida is a hugely difficult endeavor.
Rashad is pretty quick, but I'm not sure he has the right background to cut off an octagon from the fastest LHW in the world. I think it would take a striker/kickboxer, with A LOT of ring experience, and the ability to hold on to a clinch.
That being said, 25 minutes is a long time and Rashad may be able to when everything slows down in the later rounds. But Rashad will also be tired, and I just don't see it happening much.
Lyoto is too smart and knows too well to stay off the fence. I got Lyoto by UD.
Id bet ya but im a broke ass mudnamer lol
Can I bet on the fence?
Why does Rashad have to trap Lyoto? He's the champ. Why not just stay where he is, taunt Lyoto, and make it readily apparent to the judges that Machida is refusing to engage? The best way to throw a counterpuncher off is to make him attack. It worked with Chuck!
Lyoto -175
Rashad +125
The Fence -10000
eljamaiquino - Why does Rashad have to trap Lyoto? He's the champ. Why not just stay where he is, taunt Lyoto, and make it readily apparent to the judges that Machida is refusing to engage? The best way to throw a counterpuncher off is to make him attack. It worked with Chuck!
Lyoto is too smart and doesn't have the "pride" factor. He'll jump in for 2 exchanges each round and win them both.
You need to get off the fence MX, lol
Franklin, Penn, and Ortiz couldn't use the fence so if this is Rashad's game plan he's going to have a tough time. I am not so sure that getting caught against the fence will matter....remember what happened when Thiago got Lyoto against the fence?
The vast majority of Rashad's opponent's were not "movers"...guys who used the ring. The only guy you could say had some movement was Bisping and Rashad barely won that fight. Rashad does better when you stand in front of him or come at him. If you give him some movement he has some trouble as in the Bisping fight.
lol...ok fence/ropes...
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!1
I agree with Ausgepicht on everything but the Thiago Silva part, If Rashad gets there he is going to clinch and lower his base, he won't get caught in a lower body trip like that.
But the rest is spot on, which is why I don't think this looks great for Rashad. If Rashad can surprise me (as he has before) and get this against the fence consistently though, he can definitely win.
Ausgepicht - The vast majority of Rashad's opponent's were not "movers"...guys who used the ring. The only guy you could say had some movement was Bisping and Rashad barely won that fight. Rashad does better when you stand in front of him or come at him. If you give him some movement he has some trouble as in the Bisping fight.
True, however Lyoto hasn't faced the fleetest of opponents either. Tito is a lumbering fighter at this point, and seems completely incapable of integrating striking with grappling (it's all 1 or the other for him, as if he can't transition). Thiago Silva is the same, with awful defense, awful speed, and standup that is far from elite.
Each guy brings a different style to the table than they've seen recently.
MX, good point about Rashad's base, but Tito got taken down by a bodylock so Lyoto has more than footsweeps in his arsenal. I would also say Penn has one of the best bases in the sport and he got swept EASILY. So as good as Rashad's base is, it's nothing Lyoto hasn't seen already.
Check out this animated GIFs of some of his takedowns.
as long as rashad fights his fight and not get flustered by lyoto NOT bringing the fight and decides to chase after him, he will win this. the second rashad loses his cool/takes the bait lyoto will catch him and win via TKO.
thing with lyoto is he's VERY patient and doesn't really care if it's boring or exciting...he'll just wait it out and then capitalize on a mistake.
Hardcharger, while your statement about Lyoto's opponent's not being the most fleet footed is correct, I don't think Rashad is incredibly fleet footed and I certainly don't think he will be using a lot of movement against Lyoto, because it's not his "style" and if that happens we will have a Shamrock.Severn deja vu.
If Rashad even wins one round he will have done better then all of Lyoto's opponents combined.
Ausgepicht - Hardcharger, while your statement about Lyoto's opponent's not being the most fleet footed is correct, I don't think Rashad is incredibly fleet footed and I certainly don't think he will be using a lot of movement against Lyoto, because it's not his "style" and if that happens we will have a Shamrock.Severn deja vu.
Really? I think Rashad's footspeed is very good, and that he'll use plenty of movement and motion. If any of his recent gameplans are any indication, Jackson will have a good gameplan for Rashad that he won't deviate from. It was clear from listening to Jackson's interview that they conceptualize fights more in their totality rather than round by round. That could be opponent dependent, but it hasn't appeared so. Obviously, that leaves a good chance that Rashad could be outpointed for a couple rounds, a few rounds, or all 5, but it also leaves the chance that he can have success in the fight beyond what many are predicting.
Massa - If Rashad even wins one round he will have done better then all of Lyoto's opponents combined.They said something similar about Cote getting out of the 2nd round against Anderson and look how that turned out. Careful what you wish for.
The thing is that stalking Lyoto IMO anyway, is not the way to go. Rashad really needs to time a bomb like he did with Chack. I think if Rashad could somehow get Lyoto to stalk him, he would have a far better chance. I dunno. This fight more that many others has sooo many variables.