Tough Situation - Live 2-5 NL

This hand is pretty interesting and unusual, I don't remember the exact details & numbers. What would you do?


Live NL Hold'em cash game, 2-5 blinds, 10 handed. Stacks range from $100 to $700. Not exactly the most skilled players in the world, but only a couple of complete donks.

Hero is in middle position.

1 donkish limper from early position (about $150 stack).

Hero has AcQc with $450 stack. Raises to 20$.

Button calls (no info on player), BB calls (decent player, $400 stack), limper calls.

pot = approx $80

Flop:

AdAs2c

BB checks, early limper bets $50. Hero raises to $150. Button folds, BB reraises all-in for $380, limper calls all-in.

Hero???

I'll post results and my thought later.

One other piece of info, the donk limper tends to like having an Ace in his hand so he's known for limp calling with medium to high unsuited kickers and all suited kickers.

limper flopped the full boat, huh?

before i answer, what hands do you think the BB and limper have?

I think the BB could have a small pocket pair, K-J, Q-J, K-10, or Q-10.

I'm guessing the limper, because you said he's a donk, called all in with A-5 or something ridiculous. Then, Im sure a 5 appeared on the turn or river and he ended up sucking out the win.

Why would the BB check-reraise if he had one of those hands after a bet (by early limper) and raise (by me)?

Stealing possibly?

Arghhh...Man, I totally misread the original post. I thought the big blind folded on the hero's raise.

I think the BB can only have A-K, A-J, or a pair of 2's in his hand.

And A-Q

would you call or fold?

I would definitely call.

The first thing is ALWAYS CALCULATING YOUR POT ODDS.... If I stumble onto a OG poker thread where someone else already figured out and posted the pot odds I would die a happy man....

I always calculate my pot odds when playing, so I guess I could've put that on here.


Anyhow, here it is:


the main pot is $80 preflop + ($130 from BB, $130 from EP limper and $130 from me) = $470

The side pot between BB and I is approximately $270 ($20 from my initial $150 flop raise minus $130 into main pot, and $250 from BB all-in).

So I have to call $230 to stay in the hand and try to win $740. 740:230 odds = 3.22:1 odds = 23.71%

From my rough calculations in my head at the table I figured I needed about 3 to 1 odds to be able to break even. Looks like it was a bit worse.

Now to the hands, obviously either the BB or early limper has an Ace and the other has 22. There simply isn't anything else possible except for a complete donk-off with a lower pocket pair or bluff with air (both highly unlikely in this situation imo),

This gives me 3 Queens as outs and the possiblity of a tie if the turn card pairs on the river. That's about a %13 chance of winning and about %6-7 chance of a tie.

Now the problem is which player has the 22 and wich has the other Ace.

more to come

My thoughts (while doing five other things at once):

Why min raise preflop with AQ suited? Not to criticize, as I make preflop min-raises from time to time as well, but if you're going to min-raise with AQ suited, you have to be prepared to do so with J-9 off and KK as well. Are you? If not, your min raise is doing two things:

letting your opponents know you have a hand (and likely what kind of hand) and
giving them excellent odds to call

Both are disastrous leaks in your game if true.

So right off the top, the minraise with AQ suited is suspect (although, depending on your style and the table, may very well be strategically defensible)

Once the flop hits:

Why are you raising with the trip A's here? Any hand that beats you is WAY ahead, any hand you have beaten is WAY behind. This looks to me like an excellent spot to smooth call. This would accomplish a few things:

It would mix your game up, being a chance to play a big hand slow
It would allow the button to make a move with a worse hand.
It would convince someone else with a weaker A to think you are not carrying a larger A
It would allow someone to make a move at the pot if a suited card comes out, giving them a four flush and licence to rep the A

The price you pay for this is allowing someone to hit his worse A kicker or his gut straight -- a small, acceptable risk.

But you raise. Fair enough.

You are now sitting on trip A's with a Q kicker and a deuce on board and faced with calling when the pot is laying you 2:1 on the flop, at a table with mediocre players.

A few thoughts: even if the BB is a decent player, he has to adjust his game for the mediocre players at the table with him. Where trip aces, mediocre kicker is a dangerous hand at a tough table, at your table, he has to think there's a good chance it's the nuts.

His check-raise into a raised preflop AA2 rainbow board means he's telling you he has one of three hands:

A2
22
A - other kicker

A2 you have outs, but would he call preflop with that hand out of position? This is where a real raise preflop would have helped you define his hand. Had he called $60 preflop, you could realistically rule out A2 from a decent player in that spot. Your min-raise gave him odds to call almost any two cards there.

22 kills you.

AK kills you.

Any other AA is great news.

Now here is my question: why would he push all-in with A2 or 22 in this spot? He has two guys at a soft table trying to push each other around. Where's the upside to shutting down the hand? He WANTS someone with a-10 to come along. Hell, even AK wants more action.

On the other hand, he has to think one of you has an A and will call the reraise anyways (you're at a soft table, remember?). But, as above, you are likely to call on the turn, so why doesn't he wait until then to make a move, or build the pot?

I give him a decent A in that spot, but I call him at your table.

You're getting 2:1 and will be good far more than 1 in 3 times.

My money goes in.

PS: I have him on a decent A. If he has the case A with the K kicker, God bless him, I reach for my wallet.

If the early limper has 22 then I have %13 chance of winning and %6.5 chance of a tie for $470. This gives me about $76 dollar equity for the main pot. That means I'm probably ahead of the BB for the side pot if we exclude AK and AQ. I have %71 chance of winning and %17.3 chance of a tie for $270 giving me $215 equity.

Total equity if early limper has 22 is $291.

If the BB has 22, it's a different story ... this means I have %13 chance of winning and 6.5% chance of a tie for the complete pot ($740).

My equity then is about $120.


Now from the way the 2 players played it's hard to say who has which hand. Although it would make more sense for the BB to reraise on the flop with 22 as I don't see him doing this with AJ, AT or lower (probably not even AQ).

So maybe it's a good estimate to say that there is a %70 chance that the BB has the 22 and %30 that he has the other Ace (and opposite for the early limper).

0.7 x $120 + 0.3 x $290 = $171 equity in the hand

Now if we assume that we can't tell which player has which hand and just to a 50-50 calculation:

0.5 x $120 + 0.5 x $290 = $205 equity in the hand

Of course this is assuming neither player has AQ, AK or a complete bluff.

Based on this the right play would have been to fold I think.

joe canada - Why min raise preflop with AQ suited? Not to criticize, as I make preflop min-raises from time to time as well, but if you're going to min-raise with AQ suited, you have to be prepared to do so with J-9 off and KK as well. Are you? If not, your min raise is doing two things:letting your opponents know you have a hand (and likely what kind of hand) andgiving them excellent odds to callBoth are disastrous leaks in your game if true.


I didn't min-raise ... I raised 4x BB to $20. The blinds were $2-$5.

joe canada - Once the flop hits:Why are you raising with the trip A's here? Any hand that beats you is WAY ahead, any hand you have beaten is WAY behind. This looks to me like an excellent spot to smooth call. This would accomplish a few things:It would mix your game up, being a chance to play a big hand slowIt would allow the button to make a move with a worse hand.It would convince someone else with a weaker A to think you are not carrying a larger AIt would allow someone to make a move at the pot if a suited card comes out, giving them a four flush and licence to rep the AThe price you pay for this is allowing someone to hit his worse A kicker or his gut straight -- a small, acceptable risk.But you raise. Fair enough.



Like I mentioned, the early limper is known for playing bad kicker Aces. I didn't think I would get action from anyone else with that kind of flop and knew he would come along if he had an Ace.

joe canada - His check-raise into a raised preflop AA2 rainbow board means he's telling you he has one of three hands:

A2
22
A - other kicker

A2 you have outs, but would he call preflop with that hand out of position? This is where a real raise preflop would have helped you define his hand. Had he called $60 preflop, you could realistically rule out A2 from a decent player in that spot. Your min-raise gave him odds to call almost any two cards there.

22 kills you.

AK kills you.

Any other AA is great news.

Now here is my question: why would he push all-in with A2 or 22 in this spot? He has two guys at a soft table trying to push each other around. Where's the upside to shutting down the hand? He WANTS someone with a-10 to come along. Hell, even AK wants more action.

On the other hand, he has to think one of you has an A and will call the reraise anyways (you're at a soft table, remember?). But, as above, you are likely to call on the turn, so why doesn't he wait until then to make a move, or build the pot?

I give him a decent A in that spot, but I call him at your table.

You're getting 2:1 and will be good far more than 1 in 3 times.

My money goes in.

PS: I have him on a decent A. If he has the case A with the K kicker, God bless him, I reach for my wallet.



I just ran the numbers and if one of them has A2 (as opposed to a kicker of 3-J) and the other 22, it doesn't affect my situation much. My odds of winning and a tie go up very slightly, but not enough to change any of the calculations above.

any input?

Cut -- apologies, I had obviously misread the stakes confusing it with another thread (or something). That's what happens when I skim while doing other things instead of putting everything else aside and concentrating. The $20 raise is reasonable here, although with a donk limper in earlier, I would consider a higher raise.

In fact, I misread the hand action as well, as I will get to later in this post.

"Like I mentioned, the early limper is known for playing bad kicker Aces. I didn't think I would get action from anyone else with that kind of flop and knew he would come along if he had an Ace."

You are likely correct in that he would come along with a bad A. But by smooth calling here, you give the button the chance to make a move. As it so happens, he made a move anyway, so no harm done.

The bet/raise/all-in/call is cause for serious concern. I had misread this part as well.

I didn't notice that the donk limper had called the all-in check-raise behind your initial raise.

When the BB pushes all-in, you have to think he likely has a very good A, but not necessarily better than yours. BB has a good enough A that he's willing to go all-in with it, but likely not the nut (or he'd likely peel off another card, rather than try to shut down the action). Remember he has to up the value of his hands at a table like yours, so doesn't need the nuts to push and can likely expect to be called by almost any A in that spot.

The limper has me seriously concerned, not necessarily for his own hand, but for what it puts in the BB's hand if he has the case A. If the limper is calling the all-in with an A, and you have an A in your hand, what the hell is the BB check-raising with when you've both told him you have A's? I cannot imagine a decent player making a move in this spot, knowing he's going to get called so what does the BB have in his hand?

One of the two things is going on here:

1) One of these two players is a complete idiot -- if it's the BB, he's making a play with rags, if it's the limper, he's put his money in to two outs. Either way, that's a bit too dumb to count on.

2) One of these two players has deuces

In event 1) You may still be dead to the non-idiot's hand.

In event 2) You are drawing thin thin thin (3 q's to win or pair the turn to chop or win) or dead to the case A to quad 2's

So we know the BB is a decent player. The question then becomes, how stupid is the limper? If you don't have him calling here without an A in his hand, you have to fold because someone has the boat.

One of your guys has the case A, the other is all-in without it. What hand could he have? 2's.

After re-reading the hand, my previous 2:1 pot odds call has become, at any reasonable table, a fold. I would have to be at a table with either mouth-breathing idiots or hyper-aggressive bluffers to consider calling here.

Apologies for the confusion earlier.

Unfortunately I called, I didn't really have time to do the exact math in my head. I just figured 3-1 pot odds are good enough ... but after doing the calculations when i got home I saw I was drawing pretty thin.

BB had 22 and early limper also had AQ, taking away another out from me.