TRUMP leading early!

If Trump doesn't win, I predict he will become the highest-paid entertainer in Vegas. 

Erik Apple - 
Thelonious -
uniquetechnique -
Thelonious -

Trump is down 3 to 1 in early voting. This is a fact. No youtube video can change that.

The self imposed Trump bubble is about to burst and none of you are seeing it coming because you live in an alternate reality.

The media ain’t showing accurate polls. 

These aren't polls by the way

Some states report the return of early ballots by voters registered with a party. Biden (democrats) is 3 to 1 on trump in these states and that doesn't count registered independents so the lead is larger.

Dems have always voted early. This is known.  Then real Americans vote on election day

This is just false

Thelonious -

Trump is down 3 to 1 in early voting. This is a fact. No youtube video can change that.

The self imposed Trump bubble is about to burst and none of you are seeing it coming because you live in an alternate reality.

False. According to the most recent "data", Trump is down 2 to 1 in early voting BUT IS LEADING VOTER REGISTRATION IN NEARLY EVERY BATTLEGROUND STATE. You guys fucking love omission. So even with the current figures, dem turnout would have to be higher than Obama's first election for Biden to pull this out. If you honestly believe more Americans will vote for Biden than Obama you are either stupid or crazy.

1 Like
pcuzz - https://www.yahoo.com/news/polls-biased-trump-again-deliver-195322946.html

Glad to see Yahoo given the truth

Sogflop - 
Thelonious -

Trump is down 3 to 1 in early voting. This is a fact. No youtube video can change that.

The self imposed Trump bubble is about to burst and none of you are seeing it coming because you live in an alternate reality.

False. According to the most recent "data", Trump is down 2 to 1 in early voting BUT IS LEADING VOTER REGISTRATION IN NEARLY EVERY BATTLEGROUND STATE. You guys fucking love omission. So even with the current figures, dem turnout would have to be higher than Obama's first election for Biden to pull this out. If you honestly believe more Americans will vote for Biden than Obama you are either stupid or crazy.

he is not leading by voter registration in FL

but he has made tremendouos inroads, historical inroads.  Im going off the top of my head but when hillary lost to trump, hillary had about a 350K lead in voter registration . She still lost

Biden only has something like a 145K lead in voter registration, so a massive gap has been closed.  This is a massive development for the Trump camp 

Thelonious - 
Tight Butthole -
HillboFrateTrane -
Tight Butthole -
HillboFrateTrane -
Unkind Zuffa -

I heard so many people saying that you don't see Biden signs anywhere, and I had to agree; I hardly saw any.

Yesterday I went golfing with my friends near their home in Orange County, and I was shocked at how many Biden signs I saw; there were many Trump signs too, but I'm starting to see the Biden signs coming out, on the golf course of all places. 

My one friend that lives there's a retired PD helicopter pilot was playing with us.

I asked him WTF; he shrugged and said, you got me.

He told me his wife was over Trump; I started laughing because she had a Trump coffee mug in her hand when I went to pick him up. 

He said she doesn't care if he loses because she misses her friends that don't talk to her anymore. 

Yeah, it's a divided country, that's for sure. 

Yeah, and as the younger generations of women get older they will have less and less tolerance for conservative white women until there’s a full-on Karen reckoning. 

What? 

Can you not read? 

Usually when people get older they tend to become more conservative. You're free to wish however you want though. 

I'm not sure whats worse, this hypothetical "karen" or the fags that always talk about her/him/it. 

except in 2020. The GOP has had a really long streak going.

It's historically true, but it's not true right now. in 2020 a majority of old people will be voting democrat for the first time

 

LOL! You’re delusional. With white women, Trump beat Hillary Clinton… a woman. Why would Joe Biden who has a sexual misconduct accusations amongst tons of documented instances of problems keeping his hands to himself and being creepy convince more women to vote for him? Trump gave women record low unemployment. Record low jobless rate. He made them more equal in the work place than any of your virtue signaling retards you call leaders. Trump has done nothing in 4 years to damage his “relationship” with “white women” so why would they suddenly all jump ship?

I have no idea who is really trending up, just a few observations:

- Betting odds have Trump closing the gap rapidly withn the past week. Exacty a week ago, Biden was -220 and Trump +210.   Today it is -160 and +135.  Not sure how much this means in the overall picture.  While the odds usually reflect the current chances, it could also mean that a lot of people have been putting money down Trump. 

- Record numbers for early turnout has me worried, this definitely benefits Biden as the Dems are crushig it with the early votes.  This is a legitimate concern. I also don't trust the mail-in ballot scheme which the Dems will undoubtly try to cheat with it. 

- Voter registration supposedly favor Trump, hopefully this means that they will come out in full force on election day. 

- A huge factor could be how the lamestream media and big tech will be able to muzzle the Hunter Biden story as they've been doing.  Some people are saying that Giuliani and co. are slow-playing the leakage, lets hope for a bombshell 10 days before as Giuliani promises.  This would all over the news and grounds for immediate impeachment if this was done by the Trump side.  So biased and unfair.

- A huge spike in Covid numbers between now and the Nov.3 would not bold well for Trump.  I don't see it but it could happen.

My take is that Biden is still favored on paper and they should be encouraged by the huge early voting turnout.  I still think Trump has a decent chance of wininng, better than what most in the public give him credit for.  I think that he will need some help from the Hunter Biden case to gain traction though. 

So 3 major  things to keep an eye on for the next couple of weeks are continuing early voter turnout, covid numbers and most importantly for Trump; the Hunter Biden story whether they can break this case open to the mainstream media. 

Josh -
Erik Apple - 
Thelonious -
uniquetechnique -
Thelonious -

Trump is down 3 to 1 in early voting. This is a fact. No youtube video can change that.

The self imposed Trump bubble is about to burst and none of you are seeing it coming because you live in an alternate reality.

The media ain’t showing accurate polls. 

These aren't polls by the way

Some states report the return of early ballots by voters registered with a party. Biden (democrats) is 3 to 1 on trump in these states and that doesn't count registered independents so the lead is larger.

Dems have always voted early. This is known.  Then real Americans vote on election day

This is just false

Dems vote by mail and early. EVERYONE knows this

Erik Apple -
Josh -
Erik Apple - 
Thelonious -
uniquetechnique -
Thelonious -

Trump is down 3 to 1 in early voting. This is a fact. No youtube video can change that.

The self imposed Trump bubble is about to burst and none of you are seeing it coming because you live in an alternate reality.

The media ain’t showing accurate polls. 

These aren't polls by the way

Some states report the return of early ballots by voters registered with a party. Biden (democrats) is 3 to 1 on trump in these states and that doesn't count registered independents so the lead is larger.

Dems have always voted early. This is known.  Then real Americans vote on election day

This is just false

Dems vote by mail and early. EVERYONE knows this

This man speaks truths. 

David@accu - 
Thelonious - 
Tight Butthole -
HillboFrateTrane -
Tight Butthole -
HillboFrateTrane -
Unkind Zuffa -

I heard so many people saying that you don't see Biden signs anywhere, and I had to agree; I hardly saw any.

Yesterday I went golfing with my friends near their home in Orange County, and I was shocked at how many Biden signs I saw; there were many Trump signs too, but I'm starting to see the Biden signs coming out, on the golf course of all places. 

My one friend that lives there's a retired PD helicopter pilot was playing with us.

I asked him WTF; he shrugged and said, you got me.

He told me his wife was over Trump; I started laughing because she had a Trump coffee mug in her hand when I went to pick him up. 

He said she doesn't care if he loses because she misses her friends that don't talk to her anymore. 

Yeah, it's a divided country, that's for sure. 

Yeah, and as the younger generations of women get older they will have less and less tolerance for conservative white women until there’s a full-on Karen reckoning. 

What? 

Can you not read? 

Usually when people get older they tend to become more conservative. You're free to wish however you want though. 

I'm not sure whats worse, this hypothetical "karen" or the fags that always talk about her/him/it. 

except in 2020. The GOP has had a really long streak going.

It's historically true, but it's not true right now. in 2020 a majority of old people will be voting democrat for the first time

 

LOL! You’re delusional. With white women, Trump beat Hillary Clinton… a woman. Why would Joe Biden who has a sexual misconduct accusations amongst tons of documented instances of problems keeping his hands to himself and being creepy convince more women to vote for him? Trump gave women record low unemployment. Record low jobless rate. He made them more equal in the work place than any of your virtue signaling retards you call leaders. Trump has done nothing in 4 years to damage his “relationship” with “white women” so why would they suddenly all jump ship?

Because women are emotionally and irrational, so they immediately align well with Democrats. They flirted with Trump in 2016, because he was from one of the TV SHOWS they watch and probably liked his pussy video…However, as the dude said, his wife would rather have her social circle back, than hold principled political positions.

Don’t make a rational argument for women voting Trump, because women are the most irrational and emotionally reactive creatures on earth. It’s pointless to make sense and expect their vote to follow, for example. They will do the opposite just so they can have “wine nights” again with the other Karens.

HillboFrateTrane -
Tight Butthole -
HillboFrateTrane -
Tight Butthole -
HillboFrateTrane -
Unkind Zuffa -

I heard so many people saying that you don't see Biden signs anywhere, and I had to agree; I hardly saw any.

Yesterday I went golfing with my friends near their home in Orange County, and I was shocked at how many Biden signs I saw; there were many Trump signs too, but I'm starting to see the Biden signs coming out, on the golf course of all places. 

My one friend that lives there's a retired PD helicopter pilot was playing with us.

I asked him WTF; he shrugged and said, you got me.

He told me his wife was over Trump; I started laughing because she had a Trump coffee mug in her hand when I went to pick him up. 

He said she doesn't care if he loses because she misses her friends that don't talk to her anymore. 

Yeah, it's a divided country, that's for sure. 

Yeah, and as the younger generations of women get older they will have less and less tolerance for conservative white women until there’s a full-on Karen reckoning. 

What? 

Can you not read? 

Usually when people get older they tend to become more conservative. You're free to wish however you want though. 

I'm not sure whats worse, this hypothetical "karen" or the fags that always talk about her/him/it. 

No. Gen x will age closer to boomers but millennials and on will be very different.  

What, a bunch people who grew up socially liberal are just going to turn on gays and trans people and minorities because they hit 50? Ok 

So you define conservative as hating gays and minorities.. you're not very smart. 

Thelonious -
Tight Butthole -
HillboFrateTrane -
Tight Butthole -
HillboFrateTrane -
Unkind Zuffa -

I heard so many people saying that you don't see Biden signs anywhere, and I had to agree; I hardly saw any.

Yesterday I went golfing with my friends near their home in Orange County, and I was shocked at how many Biden signs I saw; there were many Trump signs too, but I'm starting to see the Biden signs coming out, on the golf course of all places. 

My one friend that lives there's a retired PD helicopter pilot was playing with us.

I asked him WTF; he shrugged and said, you got me.

He told me his wife was over Trump; I started laughing because she had a Trump coffee mug in her hand when I went to pick him up. 

He said she doesn't care if he loses because she misses her friends that don't talk to her anymore. 

Yeah, it's a divided country, that's for sure. 

Yeah, and as the younger generations of women get older they will have less and less tolerance for conservative white women until there’s a full-on Karen reckoning. 

What? 

Can you not read? 

Usually when people get older they tend to become more conservative. You're free to wish however you want though. 

I'm not sure whats worse, this hypothetical "karen" or the fags that always talk about her/him/it. 

except in 2020. The GOP has had a really long streak going.

It's historically true, but it's not true right now. in 2020 a majority of old people will be voting democrat for the first time

 

Yeach lets see. 

Josh - Would also add Warren was drawing big crowds as well. I think a better indicator at this point might be small individual donors don't you? If Biden wanted to make a crowd he just needs Obama to headline and it would destroy the crowd Trump gets so it's all relative.

Warren and Sanders were splitting the progressive vote. Sanders would have won if Warren dropped out.

A lot of the voters that were micro targeted to become disengaged enough to not vote are now going to come out and vote for Biden. 

1 Like
EVspinner - 

I have no idea who is really trending up, just a few observations:

- Betting odds have Trump closing the gap rapidly withn the past week. Exacty a week ago, Biden was -220 and Trump +210.   Today it is -160 and +135.  Not sure how much this means in the overall picture.  While the odds usually reflect the current chances, it could also mean that a lot of people have been putting money down Trump. 

- Record numbers for early turnout has me worried, this definitely benefits Biden as the Dems are crushig it with the early votes.  This is a legitimate concern. I also don't trust the mail-in ballot scheme which the Dems will undoubtly try to cheat with it. 

- Voter registration supposedly favor Trump, hopefully this means that they will come out in full force on election day. 

- A huge factor could be how the lamestream media and big tech will be able to muzzle the Hunter Biden story as they've been doing.  Some people are saying that Giuliani and co. are slow-playing the leakage, lets hope for a bombshell 10 days before as Giuliani promises.  This would all over the news and grounds for immediate impeachment if this was done by the Trump side.  So biased and unfair.

- A huge spike in Covid numbers between now and the Nov.3 would not bold well for Trump.  I don't see it but it could happen.

My take is that Biden is still favored on paper and they should be encouraged by the huge early voting turnout.  I still think Trump has a decent chance of wininng, better than what most in the public give him credit for.  I think that he will need some help from the Hunter Biden case to gain traction though. 

So 3 major  things to keep an eye on for the next couple of weeks are continuing early voter turnout, covid numbers and most importantly for Trump; the Hunter Biden story whether they can break this case open to the mainstream media. 

Fair assessment. I am also bareish on Trump’s chances, largely because the polling data has been so wildly yet consistently against him this entire cycle. I admit there is true bias in polling that favor Democrats, but its subtle, 3-5 points. So when I see poll after poll that has Trump down 11 in PA, down 9 in FL, and tied in Texas and Arizona. My conclusion is, Trump is losing this race. Perhaps not by 11 and 9 points, but he will lose those states, perhaps narrowly. I still think Trump loses many battle ground states narrowly on his way to a bad electoral loss. There just isn’t a ton of time left.

However, I have stated if I see the battle ground polls start to tighten within the margin of error, I will re-calculate my views. Because, if Trump is within 1-3 points of Biden in places like Florida, Michigan and PA, I think that points to real trouble for Biden…

I am beginning to see a few outlier polls that have Trump doing much better in Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Without question he is closing the gap. The question for me now, is there enough time to win the race.

Trump is a great closer. Depending on the last debate, which I believe will feature a far sharper Trump armed with devastating Hunter info, a lot can happen. If Trump is able to seriously land haymakers on Joe and call into question his abuse of power. Then those close races could tilt Trump.

Also, Trump has just scrapped together a decent chunk of money to start airing his “closing statement ad.” A slickly edited and highly effective television ad that he is targeting critical battleground states with. Trump has withdrawn a lot of ad money from almost everywhere, so his message has been totally dwarfed by Biden’s. However, that’s about to change. Places that haven’t seen a good Trump ad in sometime, will begin to see some good ones.

In races decided within the margin of error, these things can sway independents back to the incumbent.

60/40 Biden at the moment.

polling responses are roughly 9%. i watched a SUNY seminar about election polls and they also mention that certain demographics are not accounted for to gain an accurate sample.

Soup and Beer -
HillboFrateTrane - 
AnthonyWeiner - Something doesn't add up. Biden is supposedly leading by double-digits nationwide, yet his rallies draw... tens of people? Sometimes less? Trump is giving speeches to tens of thousands in swing states, and Biden is hiding in his basement.

Something’s got to give.

What the fuck is up with you guys and your obsession with rallies? Who the fuck goes to rallies? None of you guys go, so stfu. Why do you act like it’s this meaningful barometer when there’s a fucking pandemic going on and the Biden campaign has made it clear since the spring there would be no rallies or public gatherings if there was a lockdown going on? 

I know you really really want your guy to win, but making shit up isn’t helping. 

You are being disengenious.  And I think you know it.

Rallies are an indication of the voting public's enthusiasm for a candidate.

Here is one of Hillary's rallies in 2016

![](upload://xAk8BYeHzjjU9WYPDqbT4SfRVit.jpeg)

Here is a Biden rally

![](upload://7lssoCo6gxs5YElc1hwpTBvaN4r.jpeg)

You claim it is because Biden says there will be no rally or public gatherings.  Yet we can clearly see he is still having rallies and no one is showing up.

And you can't say it's because the left is aware of the pandemic and is staying away because of it.   If that is true, how does that explain the woman's march that just took place?  There are thousands of them packed in like sardines here

![](upload://by7PGU2uGqBcPsOhxImn3mN9Ort.jpeg)

You see the socially distant circles they are in? They are trying to be responsible during a pandemic.  Whether you believe in covid or not doesn't change the fact there are not rallies for a reason... 

jcblass -
EVspinner - 

I have no idea who is really trending up, just a few observations:

- Betting odds have Trump closing the gap rapidly withn the past week. Exacty a week ago, Biden was -220 and Trump +210.   Today it is -160 and +135.  Not sure how much this means in the overall picture.  While the odds usually reflect the current chances, it could also mean that a lot of people have been putting money down Trump. 

- Record numbers for early turnout has me worried, this definitely benefits Biden as the Dems are crushig it with the early votes.  This is a legitimate concern. I also don't trust the mail-in ballot scheme which the Dems will undoubtly try to cheat with it. 

- Voter registration supposedly favor Trump, hopefully this means that they will come out in full force on election day. 

- A huge factor could be how the lamestream media and big tech will be able to muzzle the Hunter Biden story as they've been doing.  Some people are saying that Giuliani and co. are slow-playing the leakage, lets hope for a bombshell 10 days before as Giuliani promises.  This would all over the news and grounds for immediate impeachment if this was done by the Trump side.  So biased and unfair.

- A huge spike in Covid numbers between now and the Nov.3 would not bold well for Trump.  I don't see it but it could happen.

My take is that Biden is still favored on paper and they should be encouraged by the huge early voting turnout.  I still think Trump has a decent chance of wininng, better than what most in the public give him credit for.  I think that he will need some help from the Hunter Biden case to gain traction though. 

So 3 major  things to keep an eye on for the next couple of weeks are continuing early voter turnout, covid numbers and most importantly for Trump; the Hunter Biden story whether they can break this case open to the mainstream media. 

Fair assessment. I am also bareish on Trump’s chances, largely because the polling data has been so wildly yet consistently against him this entire cycle. I admit there is true bias in polling that favor Democrats, but its subtle, 3-5 points. So when I see poll after poll that has Trump down 11 in PA, down 9 in FL, and tied in Texas and Arizona. My conclusion is, Trump is losing this race. Perhaps not by 11 and 9 points, but he will lose those states, perhaps narrowly. I still think Trump loses many battle ground states narrowly on his way to a bad electoral loss. There just isn’t a ton of time left.

However, I have stated if I see the battle ground polls start to tighten within the margin of error, I will re-calculate my views. Because, if Trump is within 1-3 points of Biden in places like Florida, Michigan and PA, I think that points to real trouble for Biden…

I am beginning to see a few outlier polls that have Trump doing much better in Florida, Georgia, Michigan and Pennsylvania. Without question he is closing the gap. The question for me now, is there enough time to win the race.

Trump is a great closer. Depending on the last debate, which I believe will feature a far sharper Trump armed with devastating Hunter info, a lot can happen. If Trump is able to seriously land haymakers on Joe and call into question his abuse of power. Then those close races could tilt Trump.

Also, Trump has just scrapped together a decent chunk of money to start airing his “closing statement ad.” A slickly edited and highly effective television ad that he is targeting critical battleground states with. Trump has withdrawn a lot of ad money from almost everywhere, so his message has been totally dwarfed by Biden’s. However, that’s about to change. Places that haven’t seen a good Trump ad in sometime, will begin to see some good ones.

In races decided within the margin of error, these things can sway independents back to the incumbent.

60/40 Biden at the moment.

you really think the debate is going to significantly swing votes?  I think the VAST majority of people have their minds made up. No matter what is said at the last debate. 

walkinassassin -
Soup and Beer -
HillboFrateTrane - 
AnthonyWeiner - Something doesn't add up. Biden is supposedly leading by double-digits nationwide, yet his rallies draw... tens of people? Sometimes less? Trump is giving speeches to tens of thousands in swing states, and Biden is hiding in his basement.

Something’s got to give.

What the fuck is up with you guys and your obsession with rallies? Who the fuck goes to rallies? None of you guys go, so stfu. Why do you act like it’s this meaningful barometer when there’s a fucking pandemic going on and the Biden campaign has made it clear since the spring there would be no rallies or public gatherings if there was a lockdown going on? 

I know you really really want your guy to win, but making shit up isn’t helping. 

You are being disengenious.  And I think you know it.

Rallies are an indication of the voting public's enthusiasm for a candidate.

Here is one of Hillary's rallies in 2016

![](upload://xAk8BYeHzjjU9WYPDqbT4SfRVit.jpeg)

Here is a Biden rally

![](upload://7lssoCo6gxs5YElc1hwpTBvaN4r.jpeg)

You claim it is because Biden says there will be no rally or public gatherings.  Yet we can clearly see he is still having rallies and no one is showing up.

And you can't say it's because the left is aware of the pandemic and is staying away because of it.   If that is true, how does that explain the woman's march that just took place?  There are thousands of them packed in like sardines here

![](upload://by7PGU2uGqBcPsOhxImn3mN9Ort.jpeg)

You see the socially distant circles they are in? They are trying to be responsible during a pandemic.  Whether you believe in covid or not doesn't change the fact there are not rallies for a reason... 

i think what he was trying to express that if left wing supporters can disregard socal distancing for a protest, they should be able to do so with biden event. whether or not biden campaign has restrictions, supporters will find a way to gather and show support.