UCLA/Stanford Covid Study: Surprisingly Low Risk

https://ussanews.com/News1/2020/09/07/study-by-researchers-at-ucla-and-stanford-finds-coronavirus-ten-times-less-fatal-than-first-thought-video/

Study By Researchers At UCLA And Stanford Finds Coronavirus “Ten Times Less Fatal Than First Thought”

A study by researchers at UCLA and Stanford shows that the chances of a healthy 50-64 year-old of dying from COVID-19 after a single random contact are one in 19.1 million. Based on this it is long past time to get back to normal.

The study by Rajiv Bhatia and Jeffrey Klausner was posted at medRXiv.

Results: Among US counties with populations greater than 500,000 people, during the week ending June 13,2020, the median estimate of the county level probability of a confirmed infection is 1 infection in 40,500 person contacts (Range: 10,100 to 586,000). For a 50 to 64 year-old individual, the median estimate of the county level probability of a hospitalization is 1 in 709,000 person contacts (Range: 177,000 to 10,200,000) and the median estimate of the county level probability of a fatality is 1 in 6,670,000 person contacts (Range 1,680,000 to 97,600.000).

Conclusions and Relevance: Estimates of the individual probabilities of COVID19 infection, hospitalization and death vary widely but may not align with public risk perceptions. Systematically collected and publicly reported data on infection incidence by, for example, the setting of exposure, type of residence and occupation would allow more precise estimates of probabilities than possible with currently available public data. Calculation of secondary attack rates by setting and better measures of the prevalence of seropositivity would further improve those estimates.

We were surprised how low the relative risk was,” Klausner said.

After months of living with COVID-19, we have more certainty. The virus is 10 times less fatal than we first thought. The vast majority who catch it will have mild or no symptoms. Children are largely spared.

California counties have not needed mutual health aid. Hospitals retooled quickly for a tsunami that never came. California hospitals have about 40% of their beds empty. Re-opening in steps is safe if we carefully watch new hospitalizations. If another wave comes, hospitals are prepared.

The Mercury News has more on the study:

The study found a 50-to-64-year-old person who has a single random contact has, on average, a 1 in 852,000 chance of being hospitalized or a 1 in 19.1 million chance of dying based on rates as of the last week of May.

I commend your effort, OP. But, you’re not going to change any minds. The typical OG panic patrol members will immediately come in and tell you that you’re “stupid”. “Just wear a mask” and “stay home, stay safe”. They don’t want to hear that they’ve wasted months of their lives on this stupidity.

1 Like

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fake ass scamdemic

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You really think there is value in this metric? I.e the death rate of someone who has one single random contact?!

T Bag - 

You really think there is value in this metric? I.e the death rate of someone who has one single random contact?!

Cigarettes do not pose a health risk… based on a new study where a person takes 1 drag in their lifetime.

Coronavirus sure has a lot of similarities to a cold. For some reason. Can’t figure out why. Something there, I think. Maybe. Hard to say. Could be, though.

Jack Carter -

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He should have been boo'd off the stage and shoved into a nursing home simply because of that one line.

WHY CANT YOU JUST HIDE IN YOUR BASEMENT UNTIL WE FLATTEN THE CURVES ASSHOLE?!!!

T Bag -

You really think there is value in this metric? I.e the death rate of someone who has one single random contact?!

what are the odds that a person comes in contact with covid-19?

okay most of you know i'm all for getting back to normal (except my working from home and only going into the office 4 times a month. that we can keep)

however this same study will become the fuel for everyone getting the super safe vaccine..."you only have 1 in 19 million chance of dying!  so get it and lets end the covid-19 from spreading in the future."

Hilldo -

I commend your effort, OP. But, you’re not going to change any minds. The typical OG panic patrol members will immediately come in and tell you that you’re “stupid”. “Just wear a mask” and “stay home, stay safe”. They don’t want to hear that they’ve wasted months of their lives on this stupidity.

ah boy. This so far is the only topic where the trumptards is a perfect name for you people.

USSA News?  What kinda commie rag is that?

RdotC - 
T Bag - 

You really think there is value in this metric? I.e the death rate of someone who has one single random contact?!

Cigarettes do not pose a health risk… based on a new study where a person takes 1 drag in their lifetime.

Thanks for taking a break from the Madison Wisconsin hate crime investigation to chime in! 

Yossarian -

WHY CANT YOU JUST HIDE IN YOUR BASEMENT UNTIL WE FLATTEN THE CURVES ASSHOLE?!!!

We don't say flatten the curve anymore. Now we have to stamp out the virus, because the curve was flattened long ago (meaning cases occuring at a rate that doesn't threaten hospital capacity - which was the entire point of lockdowns).

EFM -

USSA News?  What kinda commie rag is that?

Yeah, that source seems a little suspect. 

This corona shit will drop out of the news almost entirely within a week after the election. 

only a single new source i've ever heard of on the first page of google reporting this:

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8451823/Americans-OVERESTIMATING-risk-getting-coronavirus-claims-California-study.html

Controversial California study claims Americans are OVERESTIMATING their risk of getting coronavirus and that the odds of infection are around one in 4,000

  • Researchers looked at coronavirus case incidence data for the week ending May 30 in the 100 most populous US counties
  • They calculated that someone who has a single contact with an infected person has a one in 3,836 chance of getting sick themselves
  • For Americans between ages 50 to 64, the risk of being hospitalized is one in 852,000 and the risk of dying is one in 19.1 million
  • The team says action from governments, media attention, and the lack of feeling in control may be influencing the perception of risk 

Americans may be overestimating their risk of contracting the novel coronavirus, a controversial new study from California suggests.

Researchers found that, on average, a person who has a single contact with an infected individual has a one in about 4,000 chance of becoming sick, without using preventive measures such as social distancing or wearing a mask.

For the middle-aged, the risk of hospitalization is nearly one in a million and the risk of death is almost one in 20 million.

The team, from Stanford University and the University of California Los Angeles, says action from local and state governments, attention from the media, and the lack of feeling in control may be influencing the public's perception of risk. 

![In a new study, researchers calculated that someone who has a single contact with an infected person has a one in 3,836 chance of getting sick themselves (above)|634x409](upload://p7Tm2ZdtK4q5oYTQhmFbNQECRoY.jpeg)

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In a new study, researchers calculated that someone who has a single contact with an infected person has a one in 3,836 chance of getting sick themselves (above)

![For Americans between ages 50 to 64, the risk of being hospitalized is one in 852,000 and the risk of dying is one in 19.1 million (above, fatality risk)|634x430](upload://v7gkjw4wX3Zbt6hFj1OPJLXcVaC.jpeg)

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For Americans between ages 50 to 64, the risk of being hospitalized is one in 852,000 and the risk of dying is one in 19.1 million (above, fatality risk)

![The team says action from governments, media attention, and the lack of feeling in control may be influencing the perception of risk. Pictured: Clinicians care for a COVID-19 patient in the ICU at Sharp Memorial Hospital in San Diego, California, May 6|634x439](upload://o4yHWgzV1yKYBuTATph1jCqExDS.jpeg)

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The team says action from governments, media attention, and the lack of feeling in control may be influencing the perception of risk. Pictured: Clinicians care for a COVID-19 patient in the ICU at Sharp Memorial Hospital in San Diego, California, May 6

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has warned that the virus can easily transmit between people, most commonly through infected droplets from coughs or sneezes.

However, the federal health agency has never issued a hard number for the general public's infection risk. 

Dr Rajiv Bhatia, a clinical assistant professor of primary care and population health at Stanford, told DailyMail.com that there are several articles about data on cases and death, but not risk.

'The data that we've been seeing in the media is really a reflection what's going on at a societal level, the global level, the state level,' he said. 

'We get these really large counts of deaths, and very large counts of cases, and they all seem to be growing, but what does that matter to me is not really answered by those questions.' 

For the study, published on pre-print site medRxiv,org, the team looked at case incidence data for the week ending May 30 in the 100 most populous US counties.

Next, they calculated the probability of contracting COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, from someone who doesn't know they have it, including a household member.

Results showed that, in these middle to large counties, the risk of infection is one per 3,836.

What's more, this is when a person doesn't practice social distance, doesn't wear a mask and doesn't have good hand hygiene.  

For a person between ages 50 and 64, the odds of being hospitalized with the virus after having a single contact is one in 852,000.

The risk of fatality is even smaller. with people the same age having a one in 19.1 million chance of dying from COVID-19, based on rates seen in the final week of May.  

![|634x442](upload://53V6aBoEGkUAnlhvxfrDjushF8C.jpeg)

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'In one way I was surprised and in one way I was not,' Bhatia said.

'Even at [the pandemic's] peak, except for very few places, the severe events were pretty rare events.  

'The perception given all of the data and the images and the emergencies, the war metaphors, the uncertainty, the lack of control, these were all factors that I think elevated the perception of risk.  

Researchers not involved in the study, such as Dr A. Marm Kilpatrick, an assistant professor and infectious disease researcher at UC Santa Cruz, told The Mercury News the paper's conclusions are 'badly flawed.'  

For one, the study put every individual at the same risk despite previous evidence showing that where you live or where you work can increase or decrease your risk.

Additionally, the team did not factor for underlying health conditions that increase risk including obesity, diabetes and hypertension 

Bhatia argues, however, that this was the risk where it stood in late May and would increase if cases spike across the country. 

'Everybody doesn't have the same risk. The risk for most people is small,' he said.

'More public release of data about the cases - risk exposure factors - would allow everybody to have a better sense of their actual risks and to focus public heath efforts on where the harm is the greatest.'

![|634x538](upload://bpitTFBSZApHAbln323q6DneS9G.jpeg)