Great event coming up. How do y’all see it going down? Some brief breakdowns below.
Izzy v. Vitori
Prediction: Izzy (60%)
Breakdown: Izzy’s cage defense is good, but his defense in space is not great. He is also not great at getting back to his feet. The question here is how he has improved since the Jan fight. I hope to see Izzy relying on the lean back strike defense less. I suspect we’ll see Vitori implement a strategy of doubling up his punches, getting Izzy to lean back, and then attacking takedowns in space. I’m picking Izzy because I think he’s way more dangerous on the feet, and because he still won 2 rounds against the heavier and better Jan B. But, Vitori has a clear path to victory.
Fig v. Moreno
Prediction: Fig (70%)
Breakdown: Fig would have won the first fight without the penalty point. I’m worried about Moreno’s chin after that fight, as he absorbed far more damage in the first fight (IMO). Moreno’s best chance for victory is increased use of the takedowns he got using step behinds/outside trips.
Edwards v. Diaz
Prediction: Edwards (80%)
I wonder if anyone can convince me why this won’t look like Rory v. Nate. Nate’s a good LW. He’s an average WW. Edwards is close to elite.
On Countdown, Izzy watched the Vitori fight and gave commentary. He noted how he made a crucial mistake in the third round of attacking the wrong ankle when he sprawled on Vitori. He’s right. It was a beginners mistake that showed how young he was in the sport. It’ll be super interesting to see whether he has improved from that “shut down” sprawl position. If he has, it might be problematic for Vitori.
I don’t recall him mentioning the ankle but in that sprawl he should have switched his weight towards the hip opposite of the leg Vettori was attacking.
Yeah. He might not specifically have said ankle. But, he attacked the outside ankle and put his weight in that direction – it’s really a mistake a JV high school wrestler would make. He needed to attack the other ankle, and shift his weight in the other direction. I don’t say this to shit on Izzy, but to praise him – it was a sign of how young he was in the sport. It’s amazing that he did so well with such little experience.
Funny enough, that’s the position I work on most when I help strikers transition to MMA. Robbie Lawler was great at that position and it really helped his career. Francis learned the position before the second Stipe fight and we saw the results. Most athletic strikers are pretty good at picking up cage defense and at learning how to sprawl in space. Where they get eaten up is how to shut down chain wrestling after the sprawl.
So, I was totally wrong about Fig v. Moreno. I doubt we’ll see Fig at FW again. I think the weight cut was too much. Moreno looked incredible and Fig did not. So happy for Moreno.
Izzy showed again that his wrestling and BJJ are much better at MW.
Nate v. Leon was as predicted, with a bonus at the end. Kill or be killed.
with the new format i seem to miss a lot of threads,
pretty good analysis overall, i was expecting a great fight out of Fig but he just kind of got steamrolled
the mckinney fight last night wa quick but he looked promising
I’ve got to admit, I was disappointed this thread didn’t get more action. On the old forum, these threads used to have a lot of the forum’s best posters contributing serious analysis. I miss a lot of threads, too, since I’m often just popping on to see notifications.
Agreed about McKinney. I was so happy that the Riddell fight lived up to the hype. That guy is a violence machine.