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UFC 72: Recent trend makes Japanese underdog tempting
Thu, Jun 14, 2007
By Jason Logan
Every dog has his day and in the world of mixed martial arts, that is certainly no exception.
Over the past four months, underdogs have been cashing in at an alarming rate during Ultimate Fighting Championship events, so much so that bettors are beginning to chase the current upset trend for this Saturday’s UFC 72: Victory.
According to MMA linesmaker Joey Oddessa, the general public is siding with Japanese fighter Yushin Okami, a +165 underdog, as he prepares to face former middleweight champion Rich Franklin in this weekend’s main event in Belfast, Ireland.
The shift in money has caused the favorite, Franklin, to fall as low as -195 after opening as high as -330 at Las Vegas sportsbooks. While Oddessa discourages bettors from putting faith in such an unusual trend, he does see prime upset potential in the bout.
The biggest factor making Okami a live dog is that he was not the intended fighter for UFC 72. Franklin was originally scheduled to face Martin Kampmann but a knee injury to the Danish shootfighter forced organizers to find a replacement.
Okami and Brazilian Paulo Filho were considered as replacements and rumor has it that Franklin, still getting over losing his middleweight crown to Anderson Silva at UFC 64, cautiously chose Okami.
“If there's any truth to that (rumor), Franklin may be lacking confidence coming into this bout,” says Odessa. “Sometimes fighters never get over a beating like the one Silva threw Franklin.”
Franklin’s camp has campaigned for a rematch with Silva but due to contract conflicts the former school teacher has yet to get that opportunity. However Oddessa believes that Franklin wants nothing to do with Silva. Franklin's last opponent, Canadian Jason MacDonald, was handpicked to help Franklin get back on track after such a devastating loss.
MacDonald, known more for his ground game rather than his knockout power, didn’t pose as serious a threat to Franklin as Okami will likely be this weekend. The 25-year-old former K-1 and PRIDE fighter is a well-rounded attacker, best known for his ground and pound techniques, and has a style very similar to Franklin’s.
Okami has a 21-3 professional MMA record with seven of those wins coming from knockout. He is undefeated in his first four UFC appearances, winning one by submission, one by TKO and two by decision.
“This bout definitely fits the scenario for an upset,” says Oddessa. “A guy looking past an opponent, a late replacement and a guy who may not be over a devastating loss.”
Even though another upset would not surprise the linesmaker, he emphasizes that fans riding the underdog trend could get burned. Oddessa notes that between 2004 and 2006 the majority of cards were usually going to the favorites 6 to 2.
“The casual bettors have a lot of catching up to do on their MMA history,” notes Oddessa. “I've been offering odds on MMA for seven years now. Players betting these recent trends will lose over the long haul.”
The wagering public can watch this Saturday’s UFC 72: Victory on pay-per-view. The nine-fight card airs at 3 p.m. ET