Wargame designer defines our 4 possible civil wars

Unlikely, but an interesting read none the less.  it's from medium.com, which is jack dorsey's creation so take it with a grain of salt, but i thought it was inter

I’m a wargame designer. I co-developed the first reboot of Axis & Allies and its D-Day edition, made a mythological Risk game called Risk Godstorm, and burned down both the Roman Empire in Gloria Mundi and medieval France in Veritas. I write about game theory learned from simulating war outcomes. Like many people, I’m stuck on this as the likely outcome of our situation:

We’re facing a civil war.

Up until yesterday, I wasn’t thinking a civil war was probable. But then Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg died. With her likely went the last chance the 2020 election will end peacefully. She told her granddaughter:

It seems unlikely that wish will be heeded, though with everything this year you never know. Republicans now have a three-and-a-half-month window to install an unbreakable 6–3 majority on the Supreme Court. If they do, abortion rights, voting rights, and gay rights—actually, just all civil rights in general—are doomed.

But it’s worse than that, because we expect this election to be contested. If they have that majority before then, it doesn’t matter who wins the election, because a 6–3 court will kit-bash some reason to hand Trump a second term. So the Democrats are threatening that filling Ginsburg’s seat means they will create two to four more seats right after they win the Senate, if that happens. They might add D.C. and Puerto Rico as states, or even change the rule of apportionment. They might, as my friend Cyndi calls it, “act Ruthlessly.” This is the stuff that wars are made of.

We find ourselves in a country where both sides can’t imagine their loss would be legitimate. If Biden loses, his supporters will blame GOP trickery and voter disenfranchisement. If Trump loses, his supporters will blame voter fraud and riots. It doesn’t matter that the first one of those is real and the second isn’t. We are heading toward a reckoning.

Because the stakes are this high, both sides have a huge incentive to fight for their outcome. Those AK-wielding thugs that intimidated the Michigan legislature? Nobody stopped them then. Why would they be shy about it now? The only barricade to the Senate filling Ginsburg’s seat is at least four Republican Senators (perhaps Murkowski, Romney, Collins, and Grassley) breaking with their party and refusing to vote for a new Justice.

They will get thousands of death threats.

With an open Supreme Court seat and an election whose incumbent has already called it fraudulent, this is as bad a constitutional crisis as we have seen in a century and a half. You don’t have to take my word for it. The Transition Integrity Project, a group of more than 100 current and former senior political campaign leaders on both sides, simulated the election in a “wargame” in June. They tested four scenarios: a big Biden victory, a narrow Biden win, an indeterminate result like in 2000, and a narrow Trump victory. In all but the Biden blowout, the country descended into chaos. They write:

“We anticipate lawsuits, divergent media narratives, attempts to stop the counting of ballots, and protests drawing people from both sides. The potential for violent conflict is high, particularly since Trump encourages his supporters to take up arms.”

![](upload://oPXaedDrOn80bsD2f6Y82l1BdZR.jpeg)

Trump’s supporters expect two large-scale riots in the fall. One will come right after Election Day, when Trump will be ahead in the vote count. This is because we’re in a pandemic, and Republicans will vote in person while Democrats will vote by mail (in fact, several Democrat-run states mandate it). Trump will be ahead on election night if this holds. The second riot will come when the Democrats “discover” millions of mailed-in ballots which will give Biden the win, which (according to them) will be fraudulent. 

The last time we had this kind of crisis was the election of 1876, when Rutherford B. Hayes and Samuel Tilden were effectively tied. Three southern states sent in competing ballots of electors—that is, each party claimed their guy had won. It took till the Compromise of 1877, where the Republican Hayes got the presidency in exchange for the Democrat Tilden getting federal troops out of the South, condemning generations of African Americans to the ravages of Jim Crow.

And the time before that…

If I ask you what single event started the Civil War, you might say “the siege of Fort Sumter.” But that’s the just what started the shooting. What started the war was the election of Abraham Lincoln.

![](upload://rBpU9pTys7qmmHWEQ9DlGcFySKQ.gif)

Because of their famous debate, most people think the 1860 general election was between the Republican Lincoln and the Democrat Stephen Douglas. There were two other candidates, Constitutional Unionist John Bell and Southern Democrat John Breckinridge. Only Breckenridge was pro-slavery. Lincoln won only a plurality of the 81% turnout (!). Bell won three states in the south and Breckenridge won seven more, because in the South, no ballots that contained Lincoln’s name were distributed. Lincoln could not have won the popular vote in any manner other than a mass write-in. He sure wasn’t going to get that.

the rest can be found here:

https://medium.com/@mikeselinker/a-wargame-designer-describes-our-four-possible-civil-wars-cf5b2e980099

 

 

 

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Stopped reading after it became obvious it was written by a total faggot 

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Amazing that such a drama queen is involved in war games....

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Tapped out at civil rights are doomed and the court will hand Trump the election.

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Ebony -

Tapped out at civil rights are doomed and the court will hand Trump the election.

This... Pure delusional paranoia.

All this Civil War talk is fucking ridiculous. We live in completely differnt times and the men that would fight in these wars are of a completely different consitutiton. Basically, we as a society are soft as Charmin. We are placated by electronic media, drugs, and the most comfortable living standard in the history of the world.

Shit might bubble up or start to pop off at some point but once the stakes become clear and the blood began to flow, people would quickly find out that this isn't a movie and they don't want any part of actual, real war. This is even taking to account that you don't need a large percentage of people to fight for a Civil War to happen.

If there's any modern Civil War, it'll be "fought" on social media. That's the kind of war the modern man/woman is equipped for.

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RonaldRaygun -

All this Civil War talk is fucking ridiculous. We live in completely differnt times and the men that would fight in these wars are of a completely different consitutiton. Basically, we as a society are soft as Charmin. We are placated by electronic media, drugs, and the most comfortable living standard in the history of the world.

Shit might bubble up or start to pop off at some point but once the stakes become clear and the blood began to flow, people would quickly find out that this isn't a movie and they don't want any part of actual, real war. This is even taking to account that you don't need a large percentage of people to fight for a Civil War to happen.

If there's any modern Civil War, it'll be "fought" on social media. That's the kind of war the modern man/woman is equipped for.

Agree, I still thought it was a fun read.  Like fiction.

IMO a Trump win will be seen by the radical left as proof that the whole country is irredeemably racist. That will be taken as justification for any violent action on their part.

Then no more burning down their own neighborhoods. They go full on domestic terrorist, Northern Ireland all over again - Home invasion & murder of prominent republicans, both politicians & celebrities, fire bombing the offices of republican politicians & party offices. If any of them get arrested then threaten car bombing of malls & schools if the trials don’t go their way.

My only hope is that they’re clearly too stupid and disorganized to pull it off.

Just popped over to the article. The guy is an utterly delusional lefty

Just read another paragraph. He just claimed that Trump might use the threat of nuclear weapons on US cities to hold on to power if he gets voted out.

phydeau - IMO a Trump win will be seen by the radical left as proof that the whole country is irredeemably racist. That will be taken as justification for any violent action on their part.

Then no more burning down their own neighborhoods. They go full on domestic terrorist, Northern Ireland all over again - Home invasion & murder of prominent republicans, both politicians & celebrities, fire bombing the offices of republican politicians & party offices. If any of them get arrested then threaten car bombing of malls & schools if the trials don’t go their way.

My only hope is that they’re clearly too stupid and disorganized to pull it off.

I agreed with you till the end. They are as highly organized as they are ruthless. Thats a scary thought, but its true. Prepare now. 

I dont think a single solitary person who thinks a civil war is actually possible has any actual war experience. Once those people who are talking all this smack realize that they would be staring down an actual barrel of a gun with the intent to kill you. You'll see people start backing away real quickly. 

All the bravado goes out the proverbial window once they realize that there are people out there who take the constitution a whole lot more serious then they do. Nobody right now is prepared to die for what they believe in. You want to try and tell me a crowd of noodle armed soyboys are going to take a stand when the local militia starts dropping them with live rounds? 

It will never come to that. Politicians wont allow it because it would mean they are no longer in control. Those in suburbs wont allow it because their not trying to see their peaceful existence threatened by a bunch of Karen's and cuckold who have never had to actually defend themselves in real life. 

In almost every state there are a ton more people willing to stand up to their nonsense. These places are not Seattle or Portland. What you saw in Kenosha would be amplified to the Nth degree. Nobody wants that for what amounts to both sides not being willing to listen to the other. 

Just look at the statistics. Black on black crime is a real problem. Those same people who are effected by that are looking for someone to blame. They found it in small pockets of people who are sympathetic to their cause. The reality is that as every day passes and those idiots continue to carry on. They are doing nothing more then turning people against them. Nobody is going to take their side who are not already on their side. Even those who stand firm with them now and getting pretty fed up with their shenanigans. 

To say it bluntly. Currently there are not enough issues at play to pit one side against the other in physical altercations. People are not stupid. There is too much too lose for both sides. Neither wants to give ground nor do they want to engage in physical restlessness to take from the other side. 

A civil war is not in our future. The stakes are not that high yet. I dont think that they ever will be. 

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He plays / makes board games for a living and so is an expert on threat assessment and military strategy?

Can we get the creator of Monopoly to fix all the worlds economies too, then?

“If they do, abortion rights, voting rights, and gay rights—actually, just all civil rights in general—are doomed.”

someone explain this to me... what civil rights are doomed? We gonna start executing gays? Not letting blacks vote? Not sure why 6-3 means anything. 

Author lost me at-

"You know Biden will attempt a compromise similar to the Compromise of 1877. Might work. He’s that good. If it doesn’t, he should get ready to put down a rebellion."

muhahaha Biden is that good? Biden wears diapers.

fuck off

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Lmfao

This is what faggots actually believe.

Whatever noodle-armed faggot penned that article has level 10 TDS. What people actually subscribe to or go out of their way to consume media like this?

Subbed for later 

baj54 -

I dont think a single solitary person who thinks a civil war is actually possible has any actual war experience. Once those people who are talking all this smack realize that they would be staring down an actual barrel of a gun with the intent to kill you. You'll see people start backing away real quickly. 

All the bravado goes out the proverbial window once they realize that there are people out there who take the constitution a whole lot more serious then they do. Nobody right now is prepared to die for what they believe in. You want to try and tell me a crowd of noodle armed soyboys are going to take a stand when the local militia starts dropping them with live rounds? 

It will never come to that. Politicians wont allow it because it would mean they are no longer in control. Those in suburbs wont allow it because their not trying to see their peaceful existence threatened by a bunch of Karen's and cuckold who have never had to actually defend themselves in real life. 

In almost every state there are a ton more people willing to stand up to their nonsense. These places are not Seattle or Portland. What you saw in Kenosha would be amplified to the Nth degree. Nobody wants that for what amounts to both sides not being willing to listen to the other. 

Just look at the statistics. Black on black crime is a real problem. Those same people who are effected by that are looking for someone to blame. They found it in small pockets of people who are sympathetic to their cause. The reality is that as every day passes and those idiots continue to carry on. They are doing nothing more then turning people against them. Nobody is going to take their side who are not already on their side. Even those who stand firm with them now and getting pretty fed up with their shenanigans. 

To say it bluntly. Currently there are not enough issues at play to pit one side against the other in physical altercations. People are not stupid. There is too much too lose for both sides. Neither wants to give ground nor do they want to engage in physical restlessness to take from the other side. 

A civil war is not in our future. The stakes are not that high yet. I dont think that they ever will be. 

This is naive imo. The Democratic leaders are literally saying to hit the streets. To let this radicalize them. I'm not doubting your take of what would be the outcome but we have actual emboldened domestic terrorists that have been rioting, burning, destroying, assaulting, terrorising, and actually murdering people in the streets since June. Now they are being told by the establishment to keep going this route. This will lead to large violent situsituations.

I truly don't want to see this but once I saw a dozen people smash out the window of a car with a dog in it and still yell, kick, and throw rocks at it I saw clearly how unstable these people are. It is heading towards a  lot of violence. I hope the national guard engage instead of the American people. 

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Some of you are well off base with your assessment. Civil Wars aren't fought by the majority of people.

They are typically started by a small minority on the fringes of both sides that are willing to fight. Eventually others get involved either by choice or necessity. Regardless, the majority don't actually fight. 

So saying the majority of people are soft etc. Yeah, sure. But they aren't the ones that would be involved in any fighting anyways. They are entirely irrelevant.

I'm not saying there is going to be a Civil War. Who knows what the future holds. I am saying some of y'alls assessment is off.

Also, the only thing keeping this country from breaking out into a Civil War is our high standard of living. A lower standard of living and all bets would be off.