I think this comes down to Okami's ability to be able to close the distance for one. He is a great wrestler/td guy but he isnt that explosive in closing the distance with tds and is often too passive in getting there. His striking has improved and was able to use it vs guys like Linhares and Munoz but those 2 obviously arent Anderson.
Yushin often backs up and gets caught in the offensive against aggressive guys but usually is able to withstand it and counter to clinch and get the td. I think he def CAN do that against Anderson, that is, take him down, no one should argue that. However the question is if he can close the distance without getting tagged first.
What made Chael successful vs Anderson and taking him down was his pressure. Okami is never that aggressive.
Once on the ground, i think it will be interesting. Okami differs from Chael in that he is a rounded ground fighter. Chael excels at GNP but is obviously lacking in sub grappling and sub defense. Okami is better than Chael at those 2 elements but again is not as aggressive down there. He has ok GNP but its not devastating or the finishing type.
So what i think will be interesting is if Okami can pass guard and threaten with dangerous positions and/or subs. Passing though gives Anderson the chance to scramble and get up. Okami's control and base are top notch but I dont think his offensive abilities are enough to really put Anderson in danger.
I think the best Okami can do is consistently take Anderson down and grind him out or not get caught in a sub. However, i think he will get caught standing by the 3rd round.
What are you guys gonna watch for?
Agreed about closing the distance. Yes Anderson is susceptible to getting taken down but Okami's takedowns aren't that explosive and as you said, they lack the aggression of someone like chael. Yes Yushin has better sub defense but the battle will be getting him down there.
But if you were to ask me before he anderson fought chael, if chael would be able to smother him for 5 rounds like he did, I almost certainly would have said no.
Nonetheless, we cant dismiss the fact that Yushin has been working very hard with the person who laid out the blueprint on how to beat Anderson.
As stated, Okami is not aggressive enough. Even training with Sonnen isn't enough. I don't think he is anywhere near as strong as Sonnen. He looked like a mear training partner doing the tires up the hill. Chael is a beast, but Silva should have no major problems with Okami.
If he does come out with an uncustomary and aggressive gameplan, will that put him too much outside of his comfort zone? Anderson is excellent at punishing people out who over-commit.
Obviously, anything can happen in a fight, but I just don't see what tools Yushin brings to the fight that Anderson hasn't already dealt with. He isn't the type of fighter (wrestler) that Chael is, and he certainly isn't a serious enough threat on the feet. Of course, that's not even to mention the fact that this is happening in Anderson's backyard.
DamnSevern - Yes Yushin has better sub defense but the battle will be getting him down there.
Will be interesting to see who intiates the action. Both guys like to feel each other out and wait for the counter.
Also does Okami ever shoot the legs? Or are most of his tds from the clinch?
DamnSevern - But if you were to ask me before he anderson fought chael, if chael would be able to smother him for 5 rounds like he did, I almost certainly would have said no.
At the risk of making excuses, here is what I think about that fight IMHO:
I do think Anderson was injured. I do think his mobility and speed and footwork were somewhat effected by it. I also think it may have effected his defensive abilities and posture in guard/on his back. How much is difficult to say? I dont think it was all there though.
On the flipside, I do think the reason also that Chael had success was that he pressured Anderson. Anderson didnt just have to worry about punches or tds, he had to worry about both with a guy that got in his face.
Chael demonstrated very aggressive GNP against Nate too who is a BJJ BB as well but not on the level of a Maia of course. Was he able to get more off on Anderson than if he was completely healthy? I think so but impossible to say to what degree.
This may sound like Anderson fan denial but i have a hard time believing that healthy Anderson would have let Chael close the distance that much, that fast to be able to land a punch on Anderson like that.
Anderson has the best punch evading abilities in the game. If he can easily move his head out of the way agaist Vitor Belfort, he can do it against Chael Sonnen. However, perhaps Chael's added threat of the td may have stumped Anderson's reaction time as well. Perhaps Anderson can weave away from Vitor because he thought Vitor was just gonna box him?
Impossible to say.
Back to Okami....
Chael used the same pressure and set up game to dominate and control Okami and Nate and Anderson. Nate admitted that he got goaded into wanging away because Chael set up his tds very well with punches.
Chael consistently took down Okami but Okami consistently was able to get back up.
I think the main thing is, to which we all seem to agree, Okami does not have the aggression nor explosive td ability of Chael. Okami has the ability to take any MW down i think given the opportunity, i think his lack of aggression and speed may not give him the opportunity though.
So this leaves a huge edge for Anderson.